The CME Group has again increased margin requirements, with silver falling below the $67 mark. On February 5th local time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group announced it would raise the initial margin for its COMEX 100 gold futures from 8% to 9%, and increase the initial margin for its COMEX 5000 silver futures from 15% to 18%.

During the Asia-Pacific trading session on Friday, spot silver continued its sharp decline from the previous day, breaking through several key integer levels and falling over 5% intraday. Spot gold also dropped more than 1.5%, approaching the $4,700 mark.

Over the past week, spot silver has retreated more than 40% from the record high set on January 29th. Thursday's 19% plunge erased all of silver's gains for the year, marking market turbulence unseen since 1980.

Historically, silver price peaks have coincided with key indicators such as exchanges repeatedly and密集地 raising margin requirements. In the current silver market cycle, the CME Group has demonstrated an exceptionally strong willingness for regulatory intervention.

Within just the past month, the CME has raised margin requirements five consecutive times, a notably high frequency:

- December 12, 2025: First increase, initial margin raised from $22,000 to $24,200. - December 29, 2025: Second increase, initial margin raised from $24,200 to $25,000. - December 31, 2025: Third, more substantial increase, raised significantly from $25,000 to $32,500. - January 28, 2026: Fourth increase, switching to a percentage system, raised from 9% to 11% (high-risk category from 9.9% to 12.1%). - January 31, 2026: Fifth increase, continuing the escalation, raised from 11% to 15% (high-risk category from 12.1% to 16.5%).

From a technical perspective, silver has not yet reached an "oversold" condition.

Historically, major tops in silver are not formed simply by prices rising too high, but are the inevitable result of high volatility, high leverage colliding with regulatory intervention. The 1980 "circuit-breaker" style crash is the most representative example. On January 21st of that year, the day silver hit its then-historic high, was precisely when the COMEX announced "liquidation only, no new positions." Prior to this, the exchange had repeatedly raised margins and tightened position limits. When longs could no longer use leverage to push prices higher, the game stopped abruptly—silver prices then collapsed 67% over the next four months.

The 2011 crash employed a "boiling frog" strategy. The CME raised margins five times in a阶梯式 manner over nine days. While not an immediate "power cut," the logic was the same: exponentially rising holding costs broke the funding chains of long positions. Silver prices peaked after the second margin hike and fell 36% over 16 months.

Both crashes shared common characteristics: volatility spiking to extreme highs (currently around 1800%, historically below 200% 93% of the time), and severe distortion in ratios (the silver-to-oil ratio currently exceeds 1.8, far above the historical range of 0.2-0.5).

The key point is that the confirmation of a top is not a natural price correction, but a sudden rule change. When exchanges force "deleveraging" by raising margins, the frenzied long positions can no longer be sustained, and prices collapse like a building losing its foundation. A major top in silver is essentially a leverage clearance. When the market transforms from orderly trading into a disorderly casino, regulation becomes the final straw that breaks the camel's back.