The US government shutdown has led to a halt in the release of official economic data, a situation that is beginning to interfere with the judgment of policymakers in countries like Japan. For these nations, understanding the economic trends of the world's largest economy is essential for assessing domestic exchange rates, trade performance, and inflation prospects.

In other words, developments in the US are not confined to its borders. Global officials have stated that as the shutdown continues, this "data blackout" may complicate the policy-making processes in other countries and increase the risk of decision-making errors — a concern heightened by the adjustments nations are already making to cope with the Trump administration's reshaping of global trade.

"This is a serious issue, and we hope the situation can be resolved quickly," said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at a press conference on October 3, where he discussed the obstacles facing the Bank of Japan in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes.

One Japanese policymaker offered a sharper critique. "This is just a joke. [Federal Reserve Chair Jerome] Powell has always said that Fed policy 'depends on data,' but now there is basically no data to rely on," the official remarked, requesting anonymity due to lack of authorization to speak publicly.

Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, noted that issues surrounding US data and disputes regarding the Fed's independence have had a direct impact on policy discussions at the BoE, though this impact is less significant compared to changes in trade policy that directly affect prices and export outlooks.

However, she pointed out that the pound has gradually lost its status as a global reserve currency — a process that took decades to unfold, driven by various factors she termed "termites" that have long eroded the pound's position.

Mann stated that potential policy changes that might weaken the dollar's position or undermine the Fed's independence "are factors we will consider, but they are not the current core issue." Still, "they act like 'termites,' not immediate threats but continually affecting the situation."

This week, finance and economic leaders from around the globe are gathering in Washington to attend World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings. The world is currently facing multiple challenges: ongoing land conflicts in Europe, tensions in the Middle East, and longstanding issues related to climate change. Under such circumstances, much of the meeting's agenda is likely to focus on three major topics: President Donald Trump's global policy framework, his performance in office to date, and the current state of the US economy, which has suddenly experienced an official data "shutdown," valued at $30 trillion and accounting for roughly a quarter of global economic output.

The US government shutdown may come to an end at any moment, potentially restoring the release of data. However, this incident has exposed deeper issues regarding the reliability of US governance and data, including Trump's attempts to exert new influence over the Fed, as well as his dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director over dissatisfaction with a job report — a report that the IMF has classified as one of the current "downside risks" facing the global economy.

In the World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF stated, "Increased political pressure on policy institutions... may undermine the hard-won trust of the public in these institutions' ability to fulfill their missions. Pressure on the technical bureaucrats responsible for data collection and publication may also weaken public and market trust in official statistics, complicating the decision-making work of central banks and policymakers... If political interference leads to deterioration in data quality, reliability, and timeliness, the likelihood of policy mistakes may also rise."

"Rising risk of mistakes" Not all data has "disappeared." The Federal Reserve, self-funded and not affected by the government shutdown, continues to collect economic information through its extensive network; private data services firms are also providing alternative data — policymakers have learned to integrate these data for short-term analysis (which, while not perfect, remains usable).

"The monthly data flows from the US are often cited, but they have never been a decisive factor for other central banks," said Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former member of the Bank of England's policymaking body.

However, Posen noted that both the shutdown itself and the turmoil surrounding the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) "have intensified widespread doubts about the US's governance and reliability... which is critical. It will ultimately affect countries' foreign exchange reserve management and monetary decisions, exacerbating pre-existing volatility expectations regarding the US economy."

If the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank focused on the uncertainties arising from Trump's tariffs and rising protectionism, the current focus has shifted to how companies, nations, and consumers adapt to this new landscape.

In short, the IMF's updated report in the World Economic Outlook stated, "Policy changes have had significant but not enormous impacts on economic prospects." At least through September, the situation has not been as bad as initially expected when Trump took office, but countries are still adjusting. In April, the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%; in its latest predictions issued on Tuesday, the IMF nearly reversed that downgrade, now estimating global economic growth for this year at 3.2%.

However, with the US economy, which represents about a quarter of the global economy, now experiencing a "significant gap" in data availability, the longer the government shutdown lasts, the more obscured the global economic outlook is likely to become.

"Certainly, there is still a wealth of information available, and policymakers are investing significant effort into gathering microdata and anecdotal evidence about the US economy," said Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group's global macro director. "But how best to integrate this information, and importantly, how markets will respond to it, are key unknowns. As time progresses, uncertainty will continue to accumulate, and the risk of errors will likewise increase."