Market U.S. stocks closed lower on March 19, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new low for the year. Inflationary pressures and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell weighed on major indices. Top 20 U.S. stocks by trading volume on March 19: Microsoft may face legal action against Amazon and OpenAI. Most popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks fell on March 19. Tencent Music declined 9.50%, while Kingsoft Cloud surged 12.65%. Brent crude oil surpassed $107 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices extended losses following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, after earlier touching their lowest level in over a month. European equity markets declined as oil prices surged following an attack on Iranian natural gas facilities. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Institutions project one rate cut this year. Chair Powell stated that the impact of the Iran conflict remains unclear.

Macro The Federal Reserve continued to hold interest rates steady. One member dissented again. Powell denied that the U.S. economy is experiencing stagflation. Full text of the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 policy statement. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in February. The Iran conflict risks further accelerating inflation. Qatar expelled Iranian military and security attachés, accusing Tehran of violating its sovereignty with attacks. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities increased in January. U.S. cross-border investment shifted to a net outflow of $25.022 billion in January. Saudi Arabia resumed over 50% of its crude oil exports, seeking alternatives to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Former President Trump temporarily waived the Jones Act to address surging domestic energy prices. An aide to President Putin stated that Russia plans to provide naval escorts for commercial vessels. Experts suggest U.S. strikes against Iran may only continue for a few more days or weeks. A missile attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City caused "extensive damage," according to QatarEnergy.

Corporate Micron Technology issued an optimistic revenue forecast, as continued AI demand drives memory chip sales higher. BMG sued Anthropic, alleging the use of Bruno Mars and Rolling Stones lyrics in AI training without authorization. XPeng launched the P7 model, featuring a second-generation VLA and three new color options, with a starting price of 203,800 yuan. BP confirmed the start of a new natural gas consortium project in Angola. Petrobras agreed to acquire Petronas's stakes in two offshore oil fields for $450 million. Eni advanced its Angola natural gas project, securing a $9 billion credit facility. A study indicated that discontinuing GLP-1 drugs increases the risk of heart attack, stroke, and death.

Commentary U.S. equities: The S&P 500 ended a two-day winning streak as inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty intensified. Apollo's Chief Economist Slok stated the Fed is choosing to ignore the Middle East shock. Swap market pricing suggests only about a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this year. Fed dot plot projections indicate one rate cut this year. Powell vowed not to leave the central bank before the Justice Department investigation concludes. Comparison of the Fed statement and dot plot reveals subtle changes in forecasts. Powell discussed post-term plans for the first time. Powell stated he will not leave the Fed until the investigation concludes and will serve as "interim chair" until a successor is confirmed. U.S. Treasuries faced selling pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance, leading to a flattening yield curve. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields extended declines, with the 2-year yield rising 10 basis points on the day. A J.P. Morgan Asset Management executive stated the Fed signaled "no need to worry." How long can the Fed "ignore" the oil shock? Powell stated that "stagflation" is a term from the 1970s and not applicable to current economic conditions. The Middle East conflict escalated sharply, with Iran claiming its oil and gas facilities were attacked by the U.S. and Israel. Fed dot plot: Despite surging oil prices, the Fed still projects one rate cut this year. U.S. Treasuries edged higher as the Fed held rates steady as expected. The Fed held policy steady, maintaining the median projection for one rate cut this year in its dot plot. European bond markets: Rising oil prices prompted traders to increase bets on interest rate hikes.