The National Day holiday approaches, prompting the release of a special holiday risk assessment report.

**Historical National Day Holiday Risk Overview**

**Main Content**

**I. Macroeconomic Factors**

From a pre-holiday perspective, global markets currently exhibit an upward trend with relatively low volatility. However, the strong expectation of macroeconomic warming driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts has led to relatively overvalued pricing in equity assets, represented by Chinese and US stock markets. In this environment of high valuations and high consensus expectations, volatility risks from expectation deviations may be greater than in previous periods. The deviation dimensions mainly encompass four factors: trade tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical factors, and holiday consumption:

1. Based on the results of the Madrid talks between China and the US and communications between leaders, tariffs may continue to be delayed. However, Trump's recent tax increases on heavy trucks, furniture, building materials, and pharmaceuticals imply a path where tariffs are likely to increase rather than decrease. If significant tariff increases on China by the US or key transshipment countries occur during the holiday, and the consensus expectation of stable tariffs through China-US trade agreements is proven wrong, it may cause more severe impulse impacts on domestic assets and RMB exchange rates.

2. Current market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are strong, but note that the US dollar, US bonds, US stocks, and gold have quietly begun to diverge, implying that currency and bond markets are starting to adjust their rate cut expectations downward. Attention should be paid to global economic data before and after the holiday. For example, if US non-farm payroll data on October 3 exceeds expectations and significant rate cuts are proven wrong, equity and financially-attributed commodities that have enjoyed substantial gains from expected rate cuts may face significant correction risks.

3. Geopolitical factors mainly involve four aspects: US government shutdown on October 1, French debt issues, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East tensions. The US may conduct final temporary budget voting in the last two days before the holiday, and a shutdown would constitute a black swan event. French and European debt issues are slow-moving variables requiring attention to changes in French and European stock markets, government bond yields, the euro, and other assets. Russia-Ukraine and Middle East issues may primarily be reflected in oil prices. If oil prices surge, strong inflation would invalidate Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with asset transmission paths similar to factor 2.

4. The strength of domestic stocks in Q3, similar to the wealth effect of 2014-2015, has led markets to expect the next major consumption cycle and even stabilization and recovery in real estate. On one hand, attention should be paid to whether further consumption stimulus policies emerge before the holiday; on the other hand, holiday consumption should be monitored, particularly high-frequency data such as per capita spending, movie box office performance, and real estate transactions.

**II. Stock Indices**

During the 2025 National Day holiday (October 1-8) when A-shares are closed, key risk warnings are as follows:

1. Transmission risk from overseas technology stock declines: The resonance logic of Q3 A-share and US stock gains both stems from valuation increases and earnings releases in high-tech industries. If US technology stocks weaken significantly during the holiday, they will impact A-shares through three pathways: sentiment, capital, and industrial chains. Additionally, we emphasize volatility risks in remaining trading days before the holiday. Concentrated profit-taking before the holiday may trigger significant market volatility.

2. Technology stocks also face crowding and event risks. US H-1B new policies may affect technology talent mobility, while at the industry level, global computing power supply-demand mismatches are intensifying. At the market level, if domestic innovation narratives encounter policy or technical bottlenecks, combined with major shareholder reduction sentiment during the holiday, sector correction risks may easily emerge.

3. Option implied volatility amplification corresponding to post-holiday gap risks should also be monitored. Historical patterns show that pre-holiday option implied volatility and trading volume increases often predict significant post-holiday gaps. Similar signals during the 2024 National Day and 2020 Spring Festival holidays both triggered subsequent volatility. Currently, pre-holiday implied volatility structures need close tracking. If near-month contract implied volatility is significantly higher than far-month and trading volume PCR indicators fluctuate dramatically, post-holiday same-direction gap probability will increase significantly.

4. Hong Kong stock opening expectations. During National Day, Hong Kong stocks will open normally on October 2, 3, 7, and 8. Their performance will serve as a "leading indicator" for A-share opening on October 9, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index covering internet technology, AI hardware, and other sectors highly correlated with A-share technology mainlines. Close tracking of Hong Kong technology sector resilience to US stock volatility is needed.

**III. Shipping**

Before National Day, futures prices have shown significant rebounds from lows, with expectations of continued strength post-holiday. The main driver of this rally comes from shipping companies initiating price support for Q4 and new year long-term contract negotiations, typically lasting one and a half months. Simultaneously, shipping companies have significantly reduced capacity in the two weeks after National Day to support freight rates. Current prices have fully reflected this, but have not been confirmed by fundamental cargo volume support. If shipping companies cannot maintain high loading rates post-holiday and must delay or abandon price increases, post-holiday futures will face significant correction risks. Additionally, negative impacts from European debt and US tariff macroeconomic disturbances, as well as capacity adjustments from US Section 301 sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry, could also pressure post-holiday prices.

**IV. Agricultural Products**

1. **Corn** Foreign markets show CBOT corn in oversold rebounds. USDA will release the October supply-demand report on the first night trading session post-holiday, with market institutions expected to continue downward single-yield adjustments. However, considering the loose supply-demand balance for the full year, attention should be paid to 450 cents resistance, with medium-term strategy maintaining rebound short positions. Domestically during National Day, new grain gradually enters the market with attention to seasonal selling pressure. Historical reviews of corn futures around National Day over the past 5 years show mixed performance. Current extremely low domestic north-south port corn inventories, combined with old-new crop transition and main contract rollover, suggest significant volatility in main contracts around National Day. Investors are advised to reduce risk exposure and maintain light positions during the holiday.

2. **Oilseed Protein** From US soybean perspective, Argentina's export tax events have been fully digested by markets, with price ranges moving lower. US soybeans still face harvest pressure, South American planting has begun, and new crops are expected to remain abundant, suggesting price weakness. Additionally, uncertainty remains about whether US soybean import tariffs between China and the US will change. Volatility during National Day may mainly revolve around domestic import policy changes.

Domestically, soybean supply is abundant with crushing volumes remaining high, pressuring spot prices. After US soybean price declines, cost pressures have decreased, with domestic futures following foreign market declines. Looking ahead, domestic soybean meal futures face pressure. Variables during National Day similarly depend on China-US negotiation progress, with supply-demand impacts relatively minor. Risk control before the holiday is recommended.

3. **Oils and Fats** Palm oil markets are gradually trading Malaysian production declines, with some participants beginning to trade Malaysian destocking expectations. Recent high domestic consumption in Malaysia is gradually being accepted by markets. Additionally, recent Argentine soybean complex impulse impacts are expected to suppress subsequent Indian palm oil imports. Indonesian July high production data will pressure futures prices.

For soybean oil, domestic supply is expected to remain abundant. Against the previously abundant backdrop with additional Argentine soybean supplies, future drivers depend on whether domestic soybean oil exports continue and whether domestic consumption can improve loose supply-demand conditions.

For rapeseed complex, although rapeseed oil has continued destocking recently, current inventory levels are not tight, with Q1 expected to see Australian seed imports. Additionally, relatively high-priced rapeseed oil is very sensitive to China-Canada policy updates.

4. **Peanuts** Third year of expansion with futures and spot prices falling to low ranges. Against the production increase backdrop, autumn harvest continuous rain in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, expectations of national oilseed increases, lackluster downstream demand, and completed Mid-Autumn and National Day stocking. Spot prices are pressured by quantity expectations and delivery pace, also affected by quality issues. Futures price support lies in expected delivery-grade source reductions. Post-National Day risk direction is upward with one-star severity rating (five-star maximum). Risk points include National Day weather impacts on late peanut quality represented by wheat-stubble peanuts currently being harvested and marketed, and potential import pattern changes in soybeans and rapeseeds affecting futures prices.

5. **Live Hogs** Current live hog markets are digesting inventory pressure with short-term market panic sentiment. On one hand, short-term selling pressure continues depressing spot prices; on the other hand, pressure relief alleviates future pressure. The extended non-trading period during National Day provides some consumption support. If market sentiment shifts, near-month contracts face gap-up opening risks post-holiday. The extended National Day window period involves numerous uncertainty factors. Investors are advised to reasonably position portfolios and control investment risks before the holiday.

6. **Eggs** Current egg market oversupply patterns have not reversed, but futures have fully traded pessimistic expectations, with pre-holiday markets entering narrow range consolidation lacking further downward momentum. Culling peaks around Mid-Autumn Festival may accelerate breeding sector culling processes, potentially providing stage-wise marginal improvement to oversupply patterns and driving futures valuation repairs. Additionally, this year's pre-holiday stocking efforts are weak. If holiday terminal demand exceeds expectations and drives post-holiday price increases rather than declines, small gap-up risks in near-month contracts may emerge, though this probability is relatively limited due to oversupply fundamentals constraints. The extended National Day non-trading period recommends reasonable pre-holiday positioning and light holiday positions.

7. **Sugar** Holidays coincide with raw sugar October contract expiration. Current markets fully trade bearish factors with managed fund net short positions at historical extremes. Caution is needed regarding Brazilian crushing season-end production changes. If UNICA data shows unexpected sugar-ethanol ratio and crushing volume decreases, futures face upward risks. Additionally, current stages precede Northern Hemisphere crushing commencement, with futures extremely sensitive to Thailand and India production estimates. Caution is needed regarding volatility risks from unexpected Northern Hemisphere production estimate adjustments. Finally, holiday consumption conditions need attention. Against active financial market backgrounds, unexpected consumption increases would provide some support for Zhengzhou sugar. With current domestic and foreign futures in overly bearish factor trading stages, investors are advised to operate cautiously with light holiday positions.

8. **Cotton** Overseas, US cotton has been range-bound recently with slow clothing and textile demand progress. As US new cotton harvest enters markets, post-holiday USDA supply-demand reports may bring short-term volatility, with generally bearish agricultural product market views. However, macroeconomic policies combined with US rate cuts bring uncertainties. If China-US tariff changes occur, futures volatility will amplify. National Day volatility should mainly revolve around China-US trade policy changes.

Domestically, new cotton is concentrated during National Day with supply pressure gradually releasing. Downstream factories affected by weak consumption show low textile enterprise operating rates and cautious new cotton purchasing, with insufficient spot price support. However, attention should be paid to domestic consumption during holidays. If consumption improves unexpectedly, it would have some bullish impact on futures. Zhengzhou cotton is easily affected by new cotton marketing and capital disturbances around National Day. Investors are advised to moderately reduce positions and control risks before the holiday.

**V. Metals and New Materials**

During the 2025 National Day holiday, metals and new materials futures markets may experience significant volatility due to multiple intertwined factors, requiring investor vigilance regarding risks from macroeconomic events and fundamental changes.

Gold and silver as high-volatility varieties will be deeply affected by US non-farm employment data, PMI economic indicators, and Federal Reserve official statements released during the holiday. If data strengthens rate cut expectations or geopolitical conflicts escalate (such as Middle East situations), precious metals may break current ranges, though profit-taking pressure may intensify silver declines.

Copper prices are expected to be range-bound with upward bias, supported by macroeconomic Federal Reserve policies, but attention should be paid to post-holiday domestic inventory destocking speeds and overseas mining supply disruptions. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum face supply looseness pressure due to increased Guinea arrivals and high inventory accumulation, with downward directional bias.

Additionally, nickel and stainless steel, while relatively low in volatility, may see amplified price oscillations due to Indonesian nickel ore quota approval progress and domestic steel mill profit pressures. Lithium carbonate focus centers on subsequent developments following Jiangxi Yichun reserve reports. If supply-side contraction signals or energy storage demand exceed expectations, rebounds may be triggered, though insufficient "Golden September Silver October" peak season performance may continue range-bound patterns.

Overall, overseas economic data releases (such as non-farm payrolls, OPEC+ meetings) and geopolitical events during holidays will be key drivers. Investors are advised to maintain light positions or use option strategies for risk management.

**VI. Industrial Products**

1. **Crude Oil** Medium to long-term oil prices face downward center expectations due to oversupply patterns, but short-term Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions have heated up, with peak season-end consumption showing resilience. Oversupply expectations temporarily lack data verification, with recent bull-bear factor competitions maintaining narrow range oil price oscillations. However, if supply-demand and geopolitical factors exceed expectations, oil prices face upward risks.

Beyond macroeconomic domestic and foreign market and demand risks mentioned, crude oil market fundamental potential risks exist in three aspects:

First, the holiday OPEC+ meeting (10.5) will discuss subsequent production plans. Current plans involve increasing production by 1.65 million barrels/day before August 2026, with expected monthly increases of about 160,000 barrels/day. Slower production increases may cause oil price increases.

Second, China-US demand includes domestic holiday consumption and US EIA weekly reports. Stronger-than-expected demand may drive oil price increases.

Third, geopolitical factors where conflict expansion or supply impacts may accelerate oil price increases.

2. **Steel** Before National Day, steel prices rebounded from lows and entered consolidation, with expectations of continued strength post-holiday. In Q3, affected by anti-involution policies, coking coal and coke prices rose significantly, driving steel and iron ore to follow strengthening trends. Simultaneously, steel demand showed strong resilience with molten iron production maintaining high levels, keeping raw materials in easily rising, difficult falling states. Pre-National Day unified market advancement became more detailed, possibly triggering new supply contraction expectations during National Day, potentially rapidly boosting post-holiday coking coal and coke prices and transmitting to the entire industrial chain. For steel, attention should be paid to steel inventory increases during holidays. For raw materials, attention should be paid to steel mill restocking progress and coke price increase situations.

3. **Salt Chemical and Polyolefin Sectors** During National Day holidays, salt chemical and polyolefin sector varieties (soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, PP, PE) face significant price uncertainty with amplified emotional disturbances and possible volatility amplification. Holiday disturbance factors differ by variety: 1. For soda ash, attention should be paid to actual startup conditions of Yuanxing Alxa project phase two during holidays. If actual startup progress falls short of expectations, soda ash may face gap-up opening possibilities post-holiday; 2. For caustic soda, current inventories are at medium-high historical levels with possible further accumulation during holidays. High inventory combined with high supply pressure may make caustic soda underperform other chemical products post-holiday; 3. PVC, PP, and PE varieties face uncertainties from raw material disturbances (affecting valuations), especially holiday overseas oil price changes, while also requiring attention to their own holiday inventory accumulation levels (affecting drivers).

Overall, these risk factors will disturb market risk appetite post-National Day, with sectors still facing high uncertainty. Pre-holiday asset allocation is recommended to prioritize risk avoidance.

4. **Propylene** Post-holiday gap-up opening risks need vigilance. Core factors include: 1. Geopolitical conflict escalation causing oil price increases and propylene cost elevation. 2. Extreme climate changes causing Northern Hemisphere freezing expectations, propane combustion demand growth, PDH import cost rapid elevation, driving propylene price increases.

5. **Methanol** Current methanol port inventories are at historical highs with spot and futures prices fully pricing weak realities. Downside is limited due to cost support and long-term overseas supply contraction expectations. Post-holiday opening mainly faces upward risks. Holiday risk factors include three points: 1. Current downstream demand shows "weak peak season" characteristics. With raw material price weakness and marginal profit improvements, attention can be paid to possible demand reversals during holidays; 2. Strengthened geopolitical friction degrees. If conflicts escalate during holidays, indirect methanol impacts may occur through overseas energy prices like crude oil and natural gas; 3. If domestic coal mines experience overproduction inspections or upgraded rectification efforts, methanol prices would receive bullish cost support.

6. **Urea** Post-holiday gap-up opening risks need vigilance. Urea shows high supply and weak demand, but export uncertainties are high. Middle East geopolitical conflicts may trigger urea-producing country supply contractions and export restrictions. Simultaneously, domestic urea exports may be affected by related policy dynamics, triggering export growth associations, stimulating speculative demand, and driving price increases.

7. **Styrene** Post-holiday gap-up opening risks need vigilance. Core factors include Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict escalation causing crude oil supply contractions, shipping restrictions, and transportation distance extensions, driving crude oil price increases and benzene and styrene cost elevations with price increases.

8. **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** Similarly require vigilance for post-holiday gap-up opening risks. Core factors include strong expectations for long-term supply-demand improvements under "anti-involution" policies. If holiday policies are implemented (such as reserves, upstream mergers and acquisitions, energy consumption standard specifications), they will further strengthen long-term supply contraction and supply-demand improvement expectations, driving polysilicon futures price strengthening.

9. **Polyester Industrial Chain** Similar to benzene and styrene, post-holiday gap-up opening risks need vigilance. Core factors include Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict escalation causing crude oil supply contractions, shipping restrictions, and transportation distance extensions, driving crude oil price increases and benzene and styrene cost elevations with price increases.

10. **Rubber** Rubber's extended holiday risks mainly involve macroeconomic aspects, with relatively limited industrial risks. Main risk sources remain oil price volatility. Reviewing recent years' extended holidays, oil price volatility has been relatively large, consistently being the main cause of chemical and rubber holiday risks. This year's National Day extended holiday, affected by potential geopolitical risks, sees oil with upward possibilities, benefiting post-holiday Shanghai rubber. However, from industrial perspectives, Thai raw material prices currently remain high. During holidays, Thai production areas may experience raw material price declines and production increases, bringing downward pressure to post-holiday rubber. Combining oil and rubber supply factors, extended holiday rubber overall risks are expected to be moderate. Even if post-holiday gap-ups or gap-downs occur, magnitudes may be relatively limited. However, due to extended holiday periods, numerous unexpected factors may emerge. Therefore, moderate pre-holiday position adjustments are recommended to avoid uncertainty risks.

Finally, investors are reminded to control investment risks and wishes for happy holidays!

2025/09/30

**Author Profiles**

Li Nan Research Institute Director Trading Advisory Qualification Certificate: Z0012347

Liu Jin Chief Macroeconomic Analyst Trading Advisory Qualification Certificate: Z0012424