According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the humanoid robotics sector has shown a rapid growth rate in the first three quarters of the year. The production of industrial robots and service robots in China increased by 29.8% and 16.3% year-on-year, respectively, significantly surpassing the growth rate of industrial value-added above a designated size. This indicates that new productive forces, represented by humanoid robots, are developing swiftly, effectively stimulating China's independent innovation vitality and driving industrial upgrades. They have become the core force propelling the transformation of China's manufacturing sector towards high-end, intelligent, and green development. Recently, there have been frequent reports of rising orders, technology breakthroughs, and improved performance across the industrial robotics supply chain. Despite existing disparities in the competitive landscape across various subsectors of industrial robots, further breakthroughs are still needed to advance the industry towards high-end markets, particularly in heavy-duty industrial robots.

In recent years, robots have mainly been applied in factories and other industrial settings, but are expected to gradually expand into public service sectors such as shopping malls, hotels, and hospitals. As the operating systems become more intelligent, there is potential for gradual entry into households. The current main bottleneck remains the insufficient level of intelligence, rendering autonomous operation and judgment unfeasible, necessitating control through preset programs.

China’s innovative momentum is continuously converting into economic force, with industrial robot production rising nearly 30% in the first three quarters, showcasing its rapid development. Since the beginning of this year, I have been advising investors to focus on opportunities in the humanoid robotics industry, which has emerged as the fourth major industrial track in China after household appliances, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, indicating substantial future growth potential. Currently, most companies engaged in humanoid robotics are formerly enterprises from the automotive sector, particularly large firms with strong capital capabilities. Additionally, the similarities in essence between smart driving technologies and robotics facilitate considerable shared R&D experience. The component suppliers in the upstream of the humanoid robotics sector are already automotive parts manufacturers, thus holding significant competitive advantages. Moreover, a number of new companies in the robotics manufacturing sector have begun entering the capital market, attracting investor interest. Presently, humanoid robotics remains in the early exploratory phase from 0 to 1, while industrial robotics has started moving into the phase from 1 to 10. This year’s focus on humanoid robots has largely revolved around thematic speculation; however, next year will likely transition into order acquisition, where the companies that can secure substantial orders will see better profitability prospects and stock price performances, while those lacking orders may face declines. In the following year, the market will shift to performance realization, where actual results will determine competitive viability. Thus, investors can continue to monitor leading firms in the humanoid robotics sector or invest in related thematic funds to capitalize on these opportunities.

Following a brief adjustment, technology stocks have once again led the market this week. The technology bull market is a notable feature of this bullish cycle and is expected to persist throughout, as these tech innovation enterprises benefit from economic transformation and are focal points of the 14th Five-Year Plan, covering areas like humanoid robotics, solid-state batteries, semiconductors, computational algorithms, and biopharmaceuticals. These sectors are poised for substantial developmental space, in stark contrast to traditional industries facing operational difficulties and even overcapacity. As a result, these innovative tech industries are flourishing and attracting significant capital inflows. Investment should be forward-looking rather than retrospective; these tech companies represent future potential and signify the direction of China's economic transformation.

Of course, a significant short-term correction in some tech stocks after substantial upswing is understandable as certain investors choose to take profits, which is a valid strategy. However, once the market adjusts, tech sectors are likely to lead again, with style shifts between “old tech stocks” and “new growth stocks” potentially taking longer to manifest. “Old tech stocks” typically refer to traditional sectors where growth is slowing or declining, while “new growth stocks” are those showing healthy growth and market performance. Short-term market style shifts are normal, but the odds favor the continuation of the technology bull market in the medium term. Capitalizing on this technology bull market for personal wealth growth remains crucial. I have consistently pointed out that a bull market is the best driver of consumer spending and is the fourth engine of economic growth. Recently, official statements emphasize stabilizing the stock market to boost consumer confidence, aligning with my views.

In recent weeks, international gold prices have surged again, with gold being pursued by various funds as a natural currency. The continuous rise in gold prices signals questions over the credibility of the dollar. In my predictions for 2025 released at the end of last year, I clearly stated that the long-term trend of international gold prices would remain upward amidst increasing dollar supply. Recently, international gold prices temporarily surpassed $4,379 per ounce, demonstrating a clear upward trend. The dollar can be viewed as a stable currency under gold standard principles, but following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, dollar stability hinges more on U.S. government credit rather than gold support, leading to greater volatility in gold prices. Under the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. assured that anyone could exchange $35 for one ounce of gold. However, as the dollar supply increased, gold began to fluctuate freely in price, increasing over a hundred times. Currently, the U.S. government’s debt has soared to $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, accounting for 20% of federal revenue. This unsustainable borrowing will likely persist, compounded by a government shutdown that has lasted about 20 days due to bipartisan disagreements over the debt ceiling.

Following several days of record highs in gold prices, on October 21, gold experienced a rare significant drop. As of Monday, gold, which had reached a historical intraday high for six consecutive trading days, recorded its largest drop in twelve years. As U.S. stocks reached daily lows, spot gold approached $4,082, dropping approximately 6.3% intraday—a new maximum daily decline since April 2013. New York futures for gold fell to $4,093, with a day loss of 6.1%. By the close in New York, spot gold fell by 5.18% to $4,130.41 per ounce. This drastic correction in gold prices may be attributable to the excessive accumulation of long positions and significant profit-taking pressure. Additionally, expectations of an upcoming U.S.-China dialogue are projected to ease trade tensions, coupled with a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, reducing safe-haven demand for precious metals. Moreover, the timing of this sell-off coincided with the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to the lack of key holding data, compounded by a strengthening dollar and the conclusion of seasonal gold buying in India, increasing market pressures. However, the fundamental factors supporting precious metals’ rise, such as potential U.S. rate cuts, ongoing global central bank gold accumulation, and heightened geopolitical instability, remain unchanged.

At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting held during this year's May Day, investment guru Warren Buffett candidly expressed his concern over U.S. fiscal policy. He indicated that if U.S. government debt continues to amplify, the credibility of the dollar is likely to be increasingly questioned, potentially rendering this greenback worthless. Recent depreciating fiat currency trades have also significantly influenced rising gold prices. In May, I attended the Berkshire shareholders' meeting for the seventh time, where Buffett reiterated his concerns about U.S. fiscal risks and staunchly opposed using trade as a weapon, advocating against trade wars. As one of the most successful value investors, Buffett’s insights and warnings carry considerable weight.

(MACD golden cross signals have formed, and several stocks are experiencing positive upward trends!)

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