On May 26, it was noted that according to a Cointelegraph report, Swissblock's Bitcoin Risk Index has climbed to 33 out of 100, entering a relatively high-risk zone. The institution indicated that following the deterioration in spot ETF fund flows, the market's ability to absorb buying pressure has weakened, making Bitcoin's fluctuations around $77,000 more susceptible to changes in institutional capital.
From a capital perspective, the short-term pressure on Bitcoin is primarily attributed to continuous net outflows from ETFs. Data from Glassnode shows that since May 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows on almost every trading day, forming an institutional selling signal lasting over two weeks. Such persistent outflows increase supply-side pressure, while demand has not shown an equivalent level of absorption.
The report noted that the strong accumulation seen in March and April shifted to distribution in May, with the risk index rising in tandem with ETF flows. Analysts believe that when the risk index and fund flows deteriorate simultaneously, even if prices remain within a range, they may conceal heightened sensitivity to downward movements, especially when the market lacks fresh capital inflows.
Bitcoin is currently still trading within a broad range of approximately four months, and short-term price elasticity has not completely vanished. However, the capital structure has become more selective. If ETF redemptions slow, the market may reassess support levels; if outflows persist, selling pressure during rebounds is more likely to emerge, making trading volume and on-chain inflow data worth monitoring concurrently.
Meanwhile, a rising risk index does not necessarily imply an immediate weakening of prices. It serves more as a reminder of position crowding and demand absorption capacity. If the market lacks new incremental capital, short-term rebounds may rely more on short covering. If stablecoin liquidity improves and drives a return of spot buying, defensive strength at the bottom of the range will also be reinforced.
It is believed that Bitcoin needs to confirm whether institutional capital will shift from continuous outflows to stability. For digital asset markets, holding key price zones is merely a surface-level signal. ETF demand, the patience of long-term holders, and stablecoin liquidity are more critical dimensions to observe. Ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in capital conditions will continue.