Abstract

Borr Drilling Ltd is scheduled to release quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, and this preview summarizes consensus revenue and earnings expectations, last quarter’s performance, the segment mix, and the near-term catalysts that could shape share-price reactions.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled ahead of the release points to Borr Drilling Ltd generating revenue of $238.86 million this quarter, implying a year-over-year decline of 3.49%, with EBIT estimated at $60.98 million year-over-year down 32.93% and adjusted EPS estimated at -$0.03, which equates to a year-over-year change of -127.78%. Forecast detail for gross profit margin and net profit margin was not available; if disclosed in management’s update, margin guidance will be a key indicator for how pricing and operating costs are trending quarter to quarter.

Dayrate-driven contracting remains the central earnings engine and is expected to anchor near-term revenue, with last quarter’s gross profit margin of 54.85% indicating healthy contribution from core operations into the quarter now being reported. The most promising segment within the mix remains dayrate operations, which delivered $241.00 million last quarter, while chartering contributed $26.70 million and management contracts $9.40 million; segment-level year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Borr Drilling Ltd reported revenue of $277.10 million, a gross profit margin of 54.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $27.80 million, a net profit margin of 10.03%, and adjusted EPS of $0.10, with year-over-year EPS growth of 150.00% and revenue growth of 14.69%.

A notable financial highlight was the sequential change in net profit: quarter on quarter, net profit declined by 20.80%, underscoring how small shifts in operating days, pricing, or opex can meaningfully influence bottom-line delivery. Within the business mix, dayrate revenue dominated at $241.00 million, complemented by $26.70 million from chartering and $9.40 million from management contracts, reflecting a concentration of earnings power in dayrate operations.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Dayrate operations and margin translation

Dayrate operations accounted for $241.00 million of last quarter’s revenue and are poised to remain the primary driver of both revenue and gross margin this quarter. The reported 54.85% gross margin last quarter implies a solid spread between pricing and operating cost per available rig day, and the estimate for this quarter’s topline suggests a modest step-down that aligns with normal variance in contracted days or pricing cadence. The link between dayrate levels and gross margin is direct: even modest rate changes can amplify through to margin, given that a large share of running costs is semi-fixed over a short horizon.

Execution around operating days will likely be central to the quarter’s earnings quality. Higher uptime and efficient scheduling typically improve revenue recognition and load more margin over a relatively fixed cost base. Conversely, any non-productive time or maintenance windows can create revenue slippage that compresses gross profit contribution in the near term. On the cost side, careful management of logistics, maintenance timing, and crewing expenses remains important; stable cost control would help protect gross margins if revenue tracks near the consensus estimate.

At the P&L level, EBIT estimate of $60.98 million implies a sequential step-down from the last reported quarter, consistent with softer revenue and potentially some normalization in operating leverage. The net profit line will be additionally sensitive to interest expense and tax accruals. With last quarter’s net profit margin at 10.03%, any variance in interest outlays or effective tax rate could materially affect reported EPS, especially given the forecast for negative adjusted EPS of -$0.03 year over year down 127.78%.

Most promising business: Visibility and leverage within dayrate-led revenue

While chartering ($26.70 million) and management contracts ($9.40 million) provide complementary revenue streams, the most promising source of incremental earnings remains the dayrate segment, given its scale and the direct translation of pricing and utilization into gross profit. The quarter’s revenue estimate of $238.86 million, if achieved, would still be supported primarily by dayrate income even if the mix shifts slightly quarter over quarter. Concentration benefits can be powerful in such a structure: a higher share of revenue from dayrate operations increases the influence of pricing and uptime on consolidated margins.

The forward-looking appeal of the main segment lies in its operating leverage. If segment activity maintains elevated uptime and stable cost per day, even modest rate improvements or better-than-modeled utilization could allow EBIT to outperform the $60.98 million estimate despite a slightly lower revenue base than last quarter. Conversely, if operating days or rates surprise to the downside, the impact on EBIT and EPS can be amplified. Segment disclosures in the results and call commentary that clarify contracted days, realized average dayrates, and expected idle or out-of-service days will help investors gauge whether this quarter’s mix supports margin sustainment into subsequent periods.

Management’s ability to align maintenance with contract schedules and limit non-productive time remains an important determinant of near-term earnings quality. Where operational control enables a consistent cadence of available days, the company can lean into its cost structure to preserve gross margin, even if revenue fluctuates within a relatively tight band. Therefore, attention to realized rates, uptime, and any guidance on vessel availability will likely drive the near-term narrative around the most promising line of business.

Key factors likely to impact the stock this quarter

Guidance and commentary around the revenue and earnings trajectory for the next quarter or two will likely have an outsized impact on how the stock trades after the release. Investors will scrutinize any commentary that bridges from the current quarter’s consensus revenue of $238.86 million and EBIT of $60.98 million toward the company’s near-term cadence for operating days and pricing. Clear signals on gross margin direction relative to last quarter’s 54.85% will be especially important for framing earnings power and cash generation in upcoming quarters.

Cash flow and balance sheet signals could be another swing factor for sentiment. The prior quarter’s GAAP net profit of $27.80 million and a 10.03% net profit margin provide a basis for assessing how effectively earnings convert to cash amid the current rate and utilization environment. Any updates on capital expenditures, maintenance schedules, and working capital timing can influence near-term free cash flow, which, in turn, may shape views on earnings durability and financial flexibility through 2026. Commentary that clarifies interest expense trajectory and the balance between debt service and investment plans may also influence EPS sensitivity and valuation framing.

Finally, the shape of segment contribution can influence the stock’s immediate reaction. Investors will look for confirmation that dayrate operations remain robust while chartering and management contracts continue to provide complementary revenue without materially diluting overall margin. A stable or improving mix favoring higher-margin activity would help offset the year-over-year revenue estimate decline of 3.49% and the projected year-over-year decline in EBIT of 32.93%. Conversely, any signs of lower-than-expected utilization or cost pressures could increase the risk that EPS underperforms the -$0.03 estimate.

Analyst Opinions

Across the period from January 01, 2026 to February 11, 2026, there were limited new, dated institutional previews available for Borr Drilling Ltd, and the observable tone of published coverage within this window leaned neutral rather than decisively bullish or bearish. In the absence of fresh directional rating changes during the specified period, the majority stance evident from available mentions can be characterized as neutral, emphasizing wait-and-see positioning into the print and an emphasis on execution signals such as realized dayrates, uptime, and cost control.

From an analytical perspective, the neutral stance rests on three evidence-based considerations that align with the current estimates. First, the consensus revenue estimate of $238.86 million suggests only a modest year-over-year decline of 3.49%, which neither implies a sharp contraction nor a clear acceleration; the lowered EBIT estimate to $60.98 million year-over-year down 32.93% indicates near-term operating leverage is weaker than in the prior quarter. Second, last quarter’s gross margin of 54.85% and net profit margin of 10.03% highlight that profitability remains sensitive to mix and operating days; with EPS estimated at -$0.03 this quarter, analysts appear to be bracing for a softer bottom-line print even if the topline remains relatively resilient. Third, with dayrate operations comprising $241.00 million last quarter, investors will seek confirmation that utilization and realized rates can sustain margins near recent levels; lacking clear new inflections within the review period, a neutral view predominates until management provides updated guidance.

In practical terms, a neutral majority perspective puts the burden of proof on the company to demonstrate momentum via three items in the release and call: clearer forward indications for operating days and achievable dayrates, a margin bridge that shows how the 54.85% gross margin might evolve over the next quarter or two, and cash-flow discipline that supports earnings quality even if this quarter’s EPS is below recent levels. Should management’s commentary indicate firmer visibility on these points, sentiment could shift; in their absence, the consensus posture is to remain balanced into the print and reassess after updated disclosures.