As 2026 begins, persistent volatility in the global geopolitical and economic landscape, coupled with high uncertainty in financial markets, has once again positioned gold as a key focus for investors worldwide. Despite the current international gold price showing a pattern of "rushing higher then retreating, fluctuating within a range," discussions about its future growth potential continue unabated.
In a recent exclusive interview, Juan Carlos Artigas, CEO of the World Gold Council for the Americas and Global Head of Research, provided an in-depth analysis of the core drivers for the gold market in 2026. He pointed out that gold is undergoing a "structural shift" propelled by both central bank purchasing demand and safe-haven sentiment, and has become an indispensable liquid moat within asset allocations.
When asked which of the four key drivers of gold performance—economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum—is the primary engine for gold valuation in the current 2026 macro environment, Artigas stated that while gold's performance always results from the interplay of all four factors, the further rise in risk and uncertainty is the foremost factor supporting current valuations in 2026. The intensification of geo-economic tensions and localized stress in financial markets have significantly boosted demand for high-quality haven assets like gold. Furthermore, the current international situation is also putting pressure on the US dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Finally, despite recent market volatility, gold's robust price performance has attracted substantial investment cash flows, creating a positive momentum.
Regarding the significantly weakened traditional negative correlation between gold and the 10-year US Treasury real yield, Artigas explained that gold prices are driven by multiple factors, not just real interest rates. While the negative correlation appears weaker, this is primarily because other supportive factors—such as geopolitical risk, strong central bank buying, and a broader investor base—are offsetting the negative impact of rising real rates. He clarified that the relationship between gold and real rates has not disappeared; rather, other macro forces have become more critical drivers at this stage, reducing the dominance of real yields.
On the topic of central bank gold purchases, which slowed in 2025 after several years of record buying, Artigas emphasized that global central banks have maintained a net buying trend for 16 consecutive years, which itself represents a major structural change for the gold market. Although 2025 purchases (863 tonnes) were below the historical highs of over 1,000 tonnes per year seen from 2022 to 2024, they still far exceed historical averages. According to WGC surveys, central banks favor gold for its performance during crises, inflation-hedging qualities, and role as a store of value. Emerging market central banks, in particular, view it as a crucial tool for hedging geopolitical risk. With emerging market central banks' gold reserves accounting for only about 15% of their foreign exchange reserves—half the level of developed markets—significant growth potential remains. Demand from central banks is expected to persist.
Addressing whether gold is transitioning from a "complementary asset" to a "primary competitor" to US Treasuries for High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status amid growing concerns over US fiscal sustainability and debt levels, Artigas noted that while gold is not formally classified as an HQLA under Basel III, its market behavior already exhibits characteristics of such assets. During periods of market stress, gold has demonstrated liquidity superior to long-term US Treasuries, including deep market depth, stable bid-ask spreads, and orderly trading amidst high volatility. In the current environment, more reserve managers are viewing gold as a reliable, non-sovereign alternative to enhance portfolio resilience and liquidity buffers.
When questioned about the optimal allocation for gold in a diversified portfolio for 2026, given the struggles of traditional 60/40 portfolios in a world of persistent inflation volatility, Artigas clarified that the WGC's Qaurum is a valuation framework, not an asset allocation optimizer. The optimal allocation depends on an investor's specific goals, risk tolerance, and portfolio. However, Qaurum indicates that environments with heightened volatility and market risk are typically associated with strong gold performance. The WGC's asset allocation analysis shows that across various macro environments, including inflation volatility, gold has historically improved risk-adjusted returns by enhancing diversification, reducing drawdowns, and strengthening long-term resilience, especially when stock-bond correlations rise.
Regarding a price "ceiling" forecast for gold in 2026, Artigas stated that the World Gold Council does not forecast gold prices. Instead, the "Gold Outlook 2026" outlines a range of hypothetical scenarios. For instance, a further deterioration in macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions could push prices higher, whereas a sustained resolution of geo-economic risks coupled with further rate increases could constrain gold's performance.
On the topic of the significant surge in Over-the-Counter (OTC) purchases and unallocated gold accumulation in recent years, Artigas explained that OTC flows are inherently difficult to quantify directly. In its "Gold Demand Trends" report, the WGC infers OTC demand by calculating the difference between quantifiable supply and demand, supplemented by trade flow analysis, inventory data, and derivatives market activity. While OTC flows can be highly influential on price during specific periods involving large, private institutional or sovereign transactions, the gold market is composed of a diverse set of participants—including jewelry consumers, the technology sector, various investors (whether via bars, coins, ETFs, or vaulted gold), and central banks. In the long run, it is the combined force of all these participants that ultimately determines gold's performance.