Core Conclusion: News of CATL's Jianchawo lithium mine resuming production has triggered sharp short-term volatility in lithium carbonate prices, but market sentiment-driven characteristics are prominent, with supply-demand fundamentals remaining unchanged. In the short term, lithium prices may maintain wide fluctuations, with high-selling strategies preferred in the medium-short term; in the long term, Fed rate cut expectations provide liquidity support, combined with downstream demand resilience, limiting downside space for lithium prices, which may gradually emerge from low-level fluctuation patterns.

01 Event Impact and Market Response: Price Volatility Dominated by Sentiment

On August 10, 2025, CATL's Jianchawo lithium mine ceased production due to mining permit expiration, with market expectations of a three-month production halt. Lithium carbonate prices had already begun reacting from August 5, surging to a high of 90,100 yuan by August 18, representing a 29.26% increase over the period.

However, on September 9, CATL announced that production resumption progress was faster than expected. On September 10, lithium carbonate futures opened with a 6% plunge to 69,620 yuan/ton, breaking below the pre-shutdown support level of 72,000 yuan/ton on August 9. Subsequently, prices recovered from the low opening to close at 70,720 yuan/ton, while spot prices also fell back to around 71,860 yuan/ton, with the futures-spot basis narrowing to approximately 1,100 yuan/ton.

02 Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Short-term Disruption and Medium-term Balance

The Jianchawo lithium mine produces approximately 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually (10,000 tons/month), accounting for 12.5% of domestic production. However, the actual supply gap during the shutdown was partially offset. As of September 10, lithium carbonate social inventory remained at a high level of 140,000 tons, with downstream material manufacturers' inventory proportion rising to 37%, eliminating short-term shortage concerns.

Data Source: SMM

The current average cost of lithium carbonate industry is approximately 68,000 yuan/ton, with 70,000 yuan/ton serving as important cost support. The futures price on September 10 has approached this range.

Lithium Carbonate Market Outlook: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Balance

Short-term: Sentiment-driven wide fluctuations, primarily ranging between 70,000-80,000 yuan/ton. After digesting the production resumption news, market focus shifts to inventory destocking and "Golden September, Silver October" demand verification, with high-selling strategies remaining the preferred approach.

Medium-long term: Supply-demand tight balance supports price floor. If Fed rate cuts materialize combined with downstream restocking initiation, lithium prices may stabilize and recover, but constrained by high inventory levels, breakthrough of previous highs remains difficult.

Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer

Ferrous Metals Analyst: Li Xiaoxiao Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0014801 Ferrous Metals Analyst: Wang Dayuan Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0019132 Agricultural Products Analyst: Kong Deming Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0015296 Agricultural Products Analyst: Zhu Xiangxiang Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0019189 Energy & Chemicals Analyst: Hu Bing Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0014789 Coal Chemical Analyst: Zhao Xinpeng Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0018324 New Energy Analyst: Liang Tianming Investment Advisory Qualification Certificate No.: Z0022437

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