Earning Preview: Rigetti Computing Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 6.46%, and institutional views are mostly bullish

Earnings Agent
10 hours ago

Abstract

Rigetti Computing will report its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on March 4, 2026 Post Market, and this preview distills quarter-to-date developments, last quarter’s baseline, and consensus directional expectations on revenue, profitability, and margins to help frame what matters on the print and call.

Market Forecast

For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, Rigetti Computing’s revenue is estimated at $2.34 million, implying a year-over-year decrease of 6.46%, with estimated EBIT at -$18.86 million (down 17.70% year over year) and adjusted EPS at -$0.033 (an improvement of 60.38% year over year). The company has not provided a quantitative gross margin or net margin forecast for the quarter.

The company’s revenue mix remains heavily weighted to collaborative research and other professional services, while access to quantum computing systems contributes a smaller share; contract timing and milestone recognition will be central to quarterly variability. The most promising pathway for incremental growth remains services and on-premises system projects tied to the product roadmap and recent awards, with the services business having contributed $1.90 million last quarter (year-over-year growth not disclosed) and access to quantum systems adding $0.05 million (year-over-year growth not disclosed).

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Rigetti Computing delivered revenue of $1.95 million (down 18.12% year over year), gross profit margin of 20.75%, GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $201.00 million, net profit margin not available, and adjusted EPS of -$0.03 (an improvement of 62.50% year over year).

A notable operational update since the last report is that the company delayed the broad release of its 108-qubit system toward the end of the first quarter of 2026 to target better system performance, and shares rose modestly on the announcement. By business mix, the company generated $1.90 million from collaborative research and other professional services and $0.05 million from access to quantum computing systems last quarter; year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Services and Contracted R&D

The core services and contracted research activity remains the backbone of quarterly revenue delivery and visibility. Given the fourth-quarter estimate of $2.34 million, the sequential step-up implied against the prior quarter’s $1.95 million indicates that contract timing and milestone recognition are pacing slightly better than the immediately preceding period. Because this activity tends to be milestone-driven, the mix of program phases and deliverables will directly influence both recognized revenue and cost of revenue, and thus the quarter’s gross margin profile. Management commentary on program execution cadence, renewals, and any scope expansions will likely shape how investors extrapolate the quarterly performance into the first half of 2026, particularly because the company’s expense base and team utilization can affect the slope of the adjusted EPS recovery that the forecasts imply.

Services also act as a commercial bridge to future product and system deployments, enabling joint development, integration work, and proof-of-concept mandates with customers that can transition to larger contracts. The company’s projected year-over-year improvement in adjusted EPS of 60.38% embeds expectations for disciplined operating expense control alongside modest revenue contribution, so signals on hiring, vendor costs, and program efficiency will be closely parsed. Investors will be attentive to whether quarterly activity skews toward higher-margin deliverables, which could support better-than-anticipated gross margin even if top-line comes in close to the current estimate.

From a bookings perspective, the quality of new wins and the timing of formal awards are essential. Although the services pipeline may not translate one-for-one into near-term revenue, management’s color on contracted backlog and funded program phases can offset the volatility that often accompanies small absolute revenue bases. The more clarity the company provides on the portion of milestone revenue that is already completed versus remaining deliverables scheduled for the first half, the tighter the near-term confidence band investors can place on the model.

System Access and the 108-Qubit Roadmap

Access to quantum computing systems contributed $0.05 million last quarter, which highlights the relatively small near-term revenue base for this line item compared with services. The company’s announcement that the broad release of the 108-qubit system is now targeted near the end of the first quarter of 2026 was framed as a performance-driven decision, aiming to deliver higher-quality system behavior and a stronger experience for users. Near-term, this timing nudges potential access-related revenue growth to later in 2026, while allowing the company to improve the product’s readiness before expanding customer exposure.

This dynamic has two implications for the current print. First, any incremental revenue from access this quarter likely remains modest and consistent with the recent run-rate unless early-access or pilot users scale usage materially. Second, the read-through for the rest of 2026 is that access revenue can accelerate once the new system is fully available and customer onboarding expands, particularly if early benchmarks and user outcomes validate the system’s performance enhancements. The company’s commentary on user pipelines, pre-commitments, or expansion interest tied to the 108-qubit release will be a focal point, as it sets the narrative for how quickly access revenue can move from proof-of-concept to recurring workloads.

Given that the system roadmap also influences delivered system projects, management’s update on integration milestones and software stack enhancements will matter. In practical terms, if the 108-qubit system’s commercialization aligns with the revised timeline and if user performance meets expectations, the downstream effect could be a more balanced revenue mix between services and access by late 2026, with the potential for higher incremental margins as utilization ramps.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The immediate stock reaction on March 4, 2026 will likely hinge on four elements: top-line delivery versus the $2.34 million estimate, adjusted EPS relative to the -$0.033 estimate, updated commentary on the 108-qubit release schedule and proof points, and any visibility into larger contract momentum. Because the company’s absolute revenue base is small, modest swings in milestone timing can move reported revenue and gross margin, meaning intra-quarter execution details can have an outsized influence on both the print and guidance tone. Investors will pay particular attention to whether gross margin expands or contracts relative to the prior quarter’s 20.75%, and whether the mix skews favorably toward higher-margin services.

Another potential catalyst is management’s update on system deliveries and on-premises projects. On January 20, 2026, the company’s Indian subsidiary received an $8.40 million purchase order to deliver a 108-qubit quantum computer to the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing in Bengaluru, scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026. Any incremental color on the project’s phasing, attempted milestone pull-ins, or related services scope will provide better guardrails for second-half revenue. Even if the majority of revenue from such projects is back-weighted, visibility on intermediate milestones can stabilize expectations for the timing and magnitude of revenue recognition.

Finally, investor sentiment into the print will be informed by whether management confirms discipline on operating expenses and cash usage consistent with the year-over-year improvement implied in adjusted EPS projections. The better the company can articulate the path from a -$18.86 million estimated EBIT this quarter toward narrower losses across 2026, the tighter the spread of post-earnings scenarios investors will price. Clarity on headcount trajectory, vendor costs, and any one-time items can help reconcile the projected EPS improvement with the scale of the EBIT loss, and set a baseline for incremental operating leverage as revenue scales.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent updates between January 1, 2026 and February 25, 2026, the balance of published views is predominantly bullish, with approximately 75% of the tracked opinions positive versus 25% neutral-to-cautious. On January 23, 2026, B. Riley upgraded the stock to Buy with a $35.00 price target, citing improved execution signals and a clearer roadmap to product and contract milestones. On January 21, 2026, Wedbush raised its price target to $40.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating, pointing to better-than-anticipated commercial traction and a supportive late-2026 deployment schedule for new systems.

On February 13, 2026, Mizuho reiterated a Buy rating and set a $50.00 price target, emphasizing the alignment of the company’s near-term product release plan with customer requirements and the potential for services and system-related revenues to compound through the year. The bullish case coalesces around three pillars: the improving cadence of services work, the tangible demand signal from formal awards and purchase orders, and the optionality on access revenue expansion after the 108-qubit system’s broad release near the end of the first quarter of 2026.

These analysts highlight that the modeled year-over-year adjusted EPS improvement of 60.38% for the current quarter is consistent with tighter spending discipline, which, if sustained, can support a narrowing loss trajectory even if revenue remains in the single-digit million range per quarter near term. They expect management commentary to reinforce cost control and to add specificity on the timing and structure of revenue recognition from larger system-related engagements. In their view, credible milestones on the system roadmap and more granular disclosure around services backlog could tighten the dispersion of sell-side models and ease volatility into subsequent quarters.

Bulls also view the January 20, 2026 $8.40 million purchase order as evidence that project-scale opportunities are materializing with clearer handoffs and acceptance criteria, potentially creating a pipeline of milestone revenue while broad access deployment proceeds. Together with a modestly stronger fourth-quarter revenue estimate of $2.34 million and a trajectory toward better unit economics on services, the majority view anticipates that management can beat or meet the top-line estimate and frame a constructive setup for the first half of 2026. The emphasis on execution and milestone clarity is central to these calls, as it anchors the progression from small absolute revenue to more balanced contributions from services and access as the product roadmap is implemented.

Looking ahead to March 4, 2026 Post Market, the bullish camp will be looking for incremental proof that adjusted EPS can continue to improve on a year-over-year basis while revenue remains resilient, and that the near-term deferment of the 108-qubit broad release has translated into better performance and, by extension, higher-quality customer adoption post-launch. Positive color on the deployment schedule, customer readiness, and early performance metrics would validate those expectations. If the company also provides tighter ranges for the cadence of services deliverables and any interim milestones tied to on-premises projects, it would strengthen the narrative that current-quarter fluctuations are a function of contract timing rather than demand weakness, thereby supporting the higher price targets set by B. Riley, Wedbush, and Mizuho.

Market Forecast

Consensus directional expectations for the December quarter point to revenue of $2.34 million (down 6.46% year over year), adjusted EPS of -$0.033 (up 60.38% year over year), and EBIT of -$18.86 million (down 17.70% year over year); no explicit gross margin or net margin forecast was provided. The services-led revenue structure should continue to underpin quarterly results, with access revenue poised to expand after the 108-qubit system’s broad release near the end of the first quarter of 2026. The most promising near-term growth vector is services and system project milestones: services contributed $1.90 million last quarter and access $0.05 million, with year-over-year segment growth not disclosed.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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