Earning Preview: Molson Coors this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 0.67%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Molson Coors Beverage Company will release fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026 Post Market; this preview distills current expectations for revenue and EPS, reviews last quarter’s performance and business mix, and outlines the key metrics likely to drive investor reaction around the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeled in company projections points to Molson Coors Beverage Company’s fiscal Q4 revenue of 2.72 billion US dollars, implying a year-over-year increase of 0.67%, and adjusted EPS of 1.16, implying year-over-year growth of 2.78%. Forecast margin details are not provided in the company projections; investor attention will likely remain on whether topline and earnings quality align with this modest growth cadence. Molson Coors Beverage Company’s core “Beer and other beverages” franchise remains the centerpiece of the outlook, with last-quarter segment revenue of 3.48 billion US dollars suggesting heavy concentration in core brands and pack formats. The most promising segment is “Beer and other beverages,” which generated 3.48 billion US dollars last quarter; with total company revenue modeled to grow 0.67% year over year this quarter, this segment is positioned to reflect comparable momentum as the principal driver of results.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Molson Coors Beverage Company reported revenue of 2.97 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 39.47%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of -2.93 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of -98.46%, and adjusted EPS of 1.67, with adjusted EPS declining by 7.22% year over year. A key financial highlight was the resilient gross profit margin at 39.47%, which held up even as GAAP net income reflected sizable below-the-line headwinds. Main business mix remained consistent: “Beer and other beverages” revenue was 3.48 billion US dollars, while excise tax recorded -510.80 million US dollars; total company revenue declined 2.27% year over year in the quarter, underlining a cautious demand and pricing backdrop into the new quarter.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Beer and other beverages

Beer and other beverages constitute the dominant revenue engine for Molson Coors Beverage Company, and they will shape investor perception of Q4 execution and its trajectory into the new fiscal year. The company’s Q4 revenue estimate of 2.72 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS estimate of 1.16, alongside year-over-year growth rates of 0.67% and 2.78%, respectively, set a measured baseline for performance across the core portfolio. Given last quarter’s gross margin of 39.47% against a net profit margin of -98.46%, investors will be assessing whether operating performance within beer and beverages can both sustain favorable gross economics and translate those into cleaner EPS. The projected EBIT of 349.09 million US dollars implies a year-over-year decline of 4.97%, a sign that operating income may be under mild pressure relative to the prior year; reconciling this with positive EPS growth suggests the potential influence of non-operating factors such as share count changes or tax rate normalization. In practical terms, Q4 delivery will hinge on the balance across price realization, mix, and volume: the last-quarter revenue base of 2.97 billion US dollars, down 2.27% year over year, indicates a tight growth context that calls for disciplined commercial execution. Because beer demand patterns can be seasonal and promotional cadence can affect shipment timing, reported revenue will be interpreted in tandem with any commentary on sell-through and inventory positioning to infer end-market health. The segment’s scale at 3.48 billion US dollars last quarter underscores its role in absorbing cost variability and supporting fixed overhead; incremental revenue improvements in this core area often have outsized impact on earnings quality. Investors will also parse whether excise dynamics (last quarter’s -510.80 million US dollars) remain broadly stable, as changes there can subtly shift reported topline visibility while not necessarily altering underlying consumer demand. Altogether, the main business sets the platform for this quarter’s outcome, with slight topline growth and cautious EBIT dynamics pointing to a fine margin of execution for management.

Most promising business: Core beer portfolio within Beer and other beverages

Within Beer and other beverages, the core beer portfolio has the scale and distribution reach to most meaningfully influence near-term results. The previous quarter’s segment revenue of 3.48 billion US dollars, versus company revenue of 2.97 billion US dollars due to excise effects, illustrates how product mix within the beer franchise can steer consolidated revenue resilience. With the company modeling a 0.67% year-over-year increase in total Q4 revenue and a 2.78% gain in adjusted EPS, the most promising path to incremental upside rests with consistent pricing, measured promotional intensity, and balanced pack strategies that protect both volume and margin. Because the EBIT estimate implies a 4.97% year-over-year decline, the portfolio’s potential to preserve contribution margins will be central to bridging any gap between operating earnings and EPS outcomes. Investors are likely to compare the revenue estimate of 2.72 billion US dollars to shipment trends and the revenue base of 2.97 billion US dollars last quarter, assessing whether quarter-on-quarter variations reflect normalized seasonality or execution slippage. The crux for the core beer business is continuity: modest year-over-year growth can be sufficient to support EPS when expense discipline and underlying pricing are intact. In this sense, a small topline beat—even by tens of millions of dollars at a 2.72 billion US dollar baseline—could tilt EPS favorably if operating leverage is not diluted by additional below-the-line charges. Conversely, any softness in volume or pricing that lowers revenue toward or below modeled levels may magnify the visibility of the EBIT decline on a year-over-year basis. As this franchise controls the largest portion of consolidated revenue and the majority of earnings potential, it is the segment most likely to produce the surprises—positive or negative—that determine market reaction.

Factors most impacting the stock price this quarter

Relative to the last quarter’s negative GAAP net income of -2.93 billion US dollars and net margin of -98.46%, investors will prioritize signs that such losses are not recurring and that operating performance aligns with the mid-single-digit growth contours implied by current estimates. On top of the headline revenue estimate of 2.72 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS estimate of 1.16, the quality of earnings will be judged in relation to the projected EBIT of 349.09 million US dollars; the 4.97% year-over-year decline in EBIT suggests the market will be sensitive to any signals on operating cost structure, freight, packaging, and commodity inputs. The last quarter’s 39.47% gross margin provides a benchmark for assessing whether price/mix can continue to offset cost pressures; sequential patterns and management commentary around price realization will be instrumental in understanding margin sustainability. Additionally, tax rate and interest expense dynamics can swing EPS outcomes even when EBIT is under modest pressure; clarity on these items can help reconcile the apparent divergence between EPS growth (+2.78% year over year) and EBIT contraction (-4.97% year over year). Given the company’s previous quarter revenue decline of 2.27% year over year, the market will look for signs of stabilization or renewed momentum consistent with the forecasted 0.67% year-over-year growth for Q4. Shipment timing, channel mix, and inventory alignment across wholesalers are practical variables that investors often triangulate against reported revenue to gauge demand quality; any commentary that contextualizes these will likely drive sentiment around the headline numbers. Finally, guidance cadence for early fiscal 2026 and management’s framing of pricing versus volume trade-offs will inform how investors extrapolate Q4 performance into the next few quarters; clear framing can dampen volatility around the release if headline numbers sit close to consensus.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish opinions dominate among recent institutional updates. Evercore ISI raised its Molson Coors Beverage Company price target to 55 US dollars from 50 US dollars and maintained an Outperform rating, signaling confidence in management’s ability to deliver on modest growth in revenue and adjusted EPS as modeled for Q4. Barclays increased its target to 49 US dollars from 45 US dollars while maintaining an Overweight rating, reinforcing the constructive stance that current valuation can be supported by steady execution and a consistent earnings profile. These bullish perspectives broadly align with the company-modeled year-over-year increase in revenue of 0.67% and adjusted EPS growth of 2.78% for the quarter, implying that even limited incremental improvement versus consensus could be sufficient to validate the upgraded targets. The emphasis across these institutions is on delivery within a tight band of expectations rather than the need for outsized upside surprises; with EBIT estimated at 349.09 million US dollars and down 4.97% year over year, their views appear to incorporate a scenario where non-operating variables and disciplined expense management keep EPS on track. From a market narrative standpoint, constructive ratings from Evercore ISI and Barclays function as a buffer against near-term uncertainty by focusing on continuity in core performance, particularly within the Beer and other beverages franchise that generated 3.48 billion US dollars last quarter. In practical trading terms, these opinions suggest that headline numbers in line with the 2.72 billion US dollar revenue estimate and 1.16 adjusted EPS estimate could be enough to sustain or incrementally improve sentiment. Even in the absence of detailed margin guidance for the quarter, the bullish camp is effectively underwriting stability, expecting that last quarter’s net loss will not repeat and that core operations will track the gentle year-over-year expansion embedded in current models. For investors interpreting these views, the signal is straightforward: a clean print at or slightly above the modest revenue and EPS trajectory may corroborate the upgraded price targets and solidify the constructive case heading into early fiscal 2026.