Abstract

StepStone Group Inc. will report fiscal results on February 05, 2026 Post Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability, and earnings quality, and highlights the key businesses and debate points heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus implies that StepStone Group Inc.’s current quarter revenue will reach USD 394.92 million, up 74.78% year over year, with forecast EBIT of USD 174.92 million and projected EPS of USD 0.64, up 41.92% year over year. Margin expectations suggest improving profitability versus last year, though the mix impact between management fees and performance-related revenues will be pivotal for gross margin and net margin trajectories. The main business is expected to be supported by management and advisory fees as well as performance revenue, with a continued rebound in capital deployment and realizations. Performance revenues are positioned as the most promising contributor given their sensitivity to realizations and market liquidity, with implied revenue potential of USD 238.74 million last quarter and strong year-over-year expansion.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, StepStone Group Inc. delivered revenue of USD 333.29 million, gross profit margin of -149.15%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -USD 366.00 million, a net margin of -80.61%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.54, which grew 20.00% year over year and exceeded the forecast. A notable highlight was a substantial top-line beat versus estimates by USD 61.14 million, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated performance-related revenue and resilient advisory fees. By business line, performance-related revenue contributed USD 238.74 million, while management and advisory net revenue contributed USD 215.49 million, underscoring the swing factor role performance carries in quarterly outcomes.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Fee-Based Management and Advisory

Fee-based management and advisory remains the foundation of StepStone Group Inc.’s earnings quality. The stability of contracted management fees under multi-year mandates supports visibility across volatile markets, and pipeline indicators suggest sustained inflows into private markets strategies. An uptick in fee-earning assets under management would translate into higher sequential fee revenue, while effective pricing on newer vintages can incrementally lift fee yields. However, fee rate compression among large allocators and a slower pace of capital formation across parts of private markets may temper the magnitude of growth, keeping the quarter’s upside tethered to renewal success and net inflows. Net of these offsets, fee revenue should continue to anchor margin resilience independent of performance-related swings.

Performance-Related Revenue and Realizations

Performance-related revenue is the principal swing factor for this quarter’s earnings sensitivity. An improved exit environment, secondary-market liquidity, and portfolio realizations can drive a disproportionate uplift to revenue and EBIT, especially as carry crystallization scales with NAV appreciation. The implied year-over-year revenue growth of 74.78% in the current quarter forecast aligns with stronger market beta and favorable year-end deal activity, which historically concentrates exits and valuations. Execution risk remains elevated given dependence on transaction timing and marks; downside scenarios would show a sharper contraction in gross margin and net margin given the negative operating leverage to performance revenue. The market will focus on the mix between realized carry and incentive fees, which carries different margin profiles and cash conversion qualities.

Stock Price Sensitivities: Margins, EPS Quality, and Forward Indicators

Share performance around the print typically keys off three pillars: margin trajectory, the quality of EPS, and forward indicators about fundraising and deployment. On margins, investors will parse whether the anticipated rebound from the prior quarter’s negative reported gross margin materializes as mix normalizes; a higher share of performance revenue with good cost discipline would improve EBITDA and EBIT conversion. On EPS quality, cash-generative fee earnings and realized performance income are credited more than mark-to-model items, and the dispersion between GAAP and adjusted metrics will shape sentiment. For forward indicators, commentary on fundraising momentum, upcoming mandate launches, secondary strategy scaling, and deployment into favorable vintages could extend confidence in double-digit revenue growth beyond the quarter, while any sign of elongating fundraising cycles or muted exits could weigh on the outlook.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing stance among institutions over the past months has been cautiously bullish, with a majority highlighting improving realization conditions and stable fee revenues as core supports for the investment case. Several analysts point to constructive year-end transaction activity and normalized capital markets as tailwinds for performance revenue, which, together with resilient management fees, underpins the consensus EPS of USD 0.64 and EBIT of USD 174.92 million for this quarter. The key debate centers on the durability of realizations into the next few quarters and whether fundraising can maintain pace amid allocator budget constraints; the majority view expects manageable headwinds and a gradual improvement in operating leverage as volumes recover. In this context, the bullish camp emphasizes that fee-earnings growth and selective exits can sustain revenue expansion and lift margins, while cost discipline should limit downside to adjusted EPS if performance revenue is softer than anticipated.