Gold edged higher, consolidating gains above $5,000 per ounce, supported by weak U.S. retail sales data which bolstered the case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. After closing lower on Tuesday, the price of gold rose by as much as 0.7%. An unexpected stagnation in U.S. consumer spending for December set the stage for Wednesday's highly anticipated, but delayed, January jobs report. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a near one-month low, while the U.S. dollar weakened against all G10 currencies.
Analysts noted that the decline in yields is driving gold prices higher. Since gold itself pays no interest, its price typically increases when the appeal of returns from other assets diminishes. In late January, driven by geopolitical turmoil, questions over Federal Reserve independence, and capital flowing out of traditional assets like currencies and sovereign bonds, gold surged to a record high above $5,595 per ounce. However, speculative buying became overheated, causing prices to plummet approximately 13% over two trading sessions. Since then, gold has recovered about half of those losses and has been fluctuating around the $5,000 per ounce level this week. Several institutions believe the fundamental logic supporting higher gold prices remains intact, and expect the upward trend to resume. BNP Paribas forecasts gold will reach $6,000 by year-end, with Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs also holding bullish views. An analyst stated that a significant amount of speculative positions have been cleared out, reducing the risk of sharp price swings for gold in the short term. He suggested that this decline in volatility could likely form the foundation for gold's "next leg higher." Further reductions in U.S. borrowing costs are seen as positive for gold. A potential Federal Reserve chair nominee has consistently advocated for more substantial rate cuts. However, a Federal Reserve Bank President indicated on Tuesday that interest rates could remain unchanged for an extended period while the latest data is assessed. As of the latest update, spot gold was up 0.4% at $5,044.53 per ounce. Silver rose 2% to $82.4272 per ounce, while platinum and palladium both gained more than 1.5%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower after falling over 1% in the previous three sessions.