JPMorgan has released a research report updating its forecasts for ASMPT (HKEX: 00522). The bank has raised its revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 to HK$18.4 billion and HK$21.5 billion, respectively. Its net profit forecasts have been adjusted to HK$1.785 billion (a 2% reduction) and HK$2.746 billion (a 1% increase), with corresponding earnings per share estimates of HK$4.27 and HK$6.56.

The firm's price target for the stock has been lifted from HK$175 to HK$225, while its "Overweight" investment rating is maintained.

Performance and Market Position

Since announcing its first-quarter results in April, ASMPT's share price has outperformed the Hang Seng Tech Index. This reflects strengthening momentum in the TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) and optoelectronics sectors, alongside a recovery in its mainstream businesses.

JPMorgan anticipates further upside potential for the total addressable market of TCB equipment. This is expected to be driven by more robust CoWoS/HBM capacity expansion in 2027-2028, increased capacity for 2.5D packaging by OSATs, and the prolonged relevance of TCB due to delays in HBM stack migration. The bank believes ASMPT maintains a dominant position in logic TCB and is gaining market share in memory TCB, estimating its overall TCB market share at 30-40%.

Financial Outlook and Potential Catalysts

With strict cost controls in place, operating leverage is becoming evident. JPMorgan forecasts that ASMPT's profit will grow by 97%, 54%, and 23% year-over-year from 2026 to 2028.

Medium-term upside potential could stem from several factors: increased investment by Intel in EMIB, an acceleration in CoWoS capacity construction in China, and the potential divestment of the SMT business with proceeds reinvested into advanced packaging.