Aluminum stocks showed signs of recovery during the morning trading session. At the time of writing, NANSHAN AL INTL (02610) rose 4.04% to HK$64.35, while CHALCO (02600) increased 1.62% to HK$13.15. The upward movement follows reports that Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, is in discussions with mining companies to regulate the volume of ore released into the market in an effort to curb declining raw material prices. Bauxite, a key raw material for alumina production, has seen its price nearly halve since the beginning of 2025. Guinea’s bauxite exports increased by more than a quarter last year, reaching 183 million tons. In a research report, UBS noted that recent supply risks in the Middle East have pushed up international aluminum and thermal coal prices. The bank suggested that after oil and natural gas, aluminum and thermal coal are likely to be the commodities most affected by Middle East conflicts. For aluminum, supply disruptions in the region and rising energy costs are elevating the cost curve. Approximately 650,000 tons of aluminum supply have already been disrupted. If shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for several weeks, up to 4 million tons of smelting capacity could be idled, increasing short-term upside risks for aluminum prices.