A senior Microsoft artificial intelligence executive has issued the most aggressive automation warning to date, stating that the vast majority of white-collar professional jobs could be replaced by AI within a year and a half. This timeline is significantly sooner than widely anticipated by businesses and policymakers, sounding an alarm for global labor markets.

Microsoft's AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman, stated in an interview that "most tasks" performed by professionals who work primarily on computers—such as lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketers—will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months.

Job losses attributed to AI are already emerging. According to a report from the outplacement firm Challenger, 7,624 job cuts in January were linked to AI, accounting for 7% of all layoffs that month. For the entirety of 2025, announced layoffs attributed to AI reached 54,836 positions. Since tracking began in 2023, a total of 79,449 planned job cuts have been blamed on AI.

Simultaneously, concerns over AI safety and misuse risks are accelerating. Anthropic, in its latest misuse report, warned that its Claude model shows increased susceptibility to "harmful misuse" in specific computer-use scenarios, even flagging risks associated with chemical weapons development.

Suleyman's prediction marks the most aggressive timeline yet from the tech industry regarding AI displacing human workers. He indicated that AI will achieve human-level performance on "most, if not all" professional tasks within 12-18 months, with these tasks primarily concentrated in computer-based white-collar roles.

This warning is not isolated. The issue of large-scale workforce displacement is troubling governments worldwide, although the true extent of job losses remains unclear amidst broader economic headwinds.

Challenger's report indicates that AI's role in layoff narratives is growing: in January 2026 alone, 7,624 cuts were attributed to AI, representing 7% of the month's total. On an annual basis, announced AI-related layoffs in 2025 totaled 54,836.

"It is difficult to quantify the precise impact of AI on job cuts," Challenger stated. "We know leaders are discussing AI, many companies want to implement it in their operations, and the market appears to be rewarding companies that mention it."

A concrete example of this workforce replacement is emerging. A report highlighted that a Bay Area startup, Mercor, has "quietly hired tens of thousands of white-collar contract workers," many of whom are highly qualified professionals from fields like medicine, law, finance, engineering, writing, and art. Their task is to train the very AI systems that may eventually replace them.

These contractors, reportedly paid between $45 and $250 per hour, review and refine model outputs over weeks or months, providing training support for companies including OpenAI and Anthropic.

For the market, this model demonstrates the short-term demand for "data labeling and feedback labor" within the AI supply chain. However, it also underscores long-term concerns regarding compensation structures and job stability due to the logic of eventual replacement.

Not all analysts agree with such a rapid displacement timeline. Morgan Stanley suggested that "the impact of AI may take longer to manifest in economic data," with the first undeniable wave of disruption potentially arriving in the "late part of this decade and into the next."

"While the adoption speed of AI might be faster than past technologies, we believe it is too early to see its effects in economic data, aside from business investment," Stephen Byrd, the bank's Head of Global Thematic and Sustainability Research, told clients.

Last month, Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei issued a comprehensive warning about AI, listing several major risks:

* **Mass Unemployment:** "I also think AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs in 1 to 5 years, and we could have AI more capable than all humans in just 1 to 2 years." * **AI with Nation-State Power:** He envisioned a "genius country" of 50 million people emerging somewhere by around 2027, where "everyone is more capable than any Nobel laureate, politician, or technical expert." He described this as "the most serious national security threat in a century, perhaps ever." * **Increased Terrorism Threat:** Amodei stated "biology is by far the area I worry about most" due to its immense destructive potential and difficulty to defend against. Advances could enable "more selective attacks (e.g., targeting people of a specific lineage)," adding "another very chilling possible motive." He assessed the risk of a major attack causing millions of casualties as "serious" over several years and millions of people. * **Empowering Authoritarians:** All governments will possess this technology. Amodei stated plainly: "AI-empowered authoritarianism scares me." * **Risks from AI Companies Themselves:** "It's a bit awkward for a CEO of an AI company to say this, but I think the next-level risk is actually AI companies themselves," Amodei warned. These companies control large data centers, train cutting-edge models, possess the greatest expertise in their use, and interact with tens or hundreds of millions of users daily, potentially influencing them. "For instance, they might use AI products to brainwash their vast consumer user base," a risk the public should be wary of. * **Tempting the Powerful into Silence:** AI giants wield so much power and money that leaders will be tempted to downplay the risks. "The amount of money to be made from AI is so vast—literally trillions of dollars per year," Amodei wrote. "That's the trap: AI is so powerful, such a tempting prize, that it becomes very difficult for human civilization to impose any constraints on it."

He called for "the wealthy to have an obligation to help solve this problem," expressing dismay at "many wealthy people (especially in tech) recently adopting a cynical and nihilistic attitude, viewing philanthropy as a scam or useless."