UBS has released a research report indicating that with improving hiring conditions in the financial sector, office net absorption has shown improvement this year. The bank expects the Central district Grade A office market to lead the recovery due to increased financial sector recruitment and reduced supply, potentially marking a bottoming-out and rebound scenario. UBS anticipates that Hong Kong's office market may be approaching a turning point.

Among property stocks, UBS has assigned a "Buy" rating to SWIRE PROPERTIES (01972), which has exposure to Central district Grade A offices, while maintaining neutral ratings for Swire Pacific A (00019) and Hongkong Land.

UBS cited Securities and Futures Commission data showing approximately 1,300 additional licenses issued in June 2025 compared to the same period last year, attributed to strong stock market performance this year. Given that the financial sector accounts for 57% of office tenants, UBS expects Hong Kong's commercial property market to stabilize.

The bank currently forecasts that Central district Grade A office rents will see a narrowed decline of 5% this year, compared to last year's 12% drop, with rents expected to remain roughly flat next year. For Hong Kong's overall Grade A office market, rental declines are projected at 3% to 5% for this year and next, representing a significant improvement from last year's 9% decline.