Fortuna FY2025 Q2 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Strategic Streamlining and Organic Growth
Earnings Call
Aug 08
[Management View] Fortuna Mining completed the sale of two mines, streamlining its portfolio and focusing production on higher-margin, longer-life assets. Management confirmed rising production guidance for Seguela and accelerated project timelines at Amba Sud, directly tying these expansions to future margin and volume growth.
[Outlook] Management aims to rebuild production to half a million ounces per year, with Seguela gold production guidance at 140,000 ounces for 2025 and 170,000–180,000 ounces for 2026. Amba Sud's indicated and inferred resources have increased significantly, facilitating an accelerated project timeline. The company expects normalized cost metrics in H2 2025 and 2026.
[Financial Performance] Fortuna reported liquidity of $537 million and net cash of $215 million as of Q2 2025, driven by $84 million in mine sale proceeds. EBITDA margin increased to 55%, up from 50% in Q1 2025, and operating margin improved to 36%, up from 28% in Q1 2025. Net earnings from continuing operations reached $41 million, or $0.14 per share, in Q2 2025, compared to $33 million, or $0.11 per share, in Q1 2025.
[Q&A Highlights] Question 1: Today, I see the stock really has got hammered pretty good. But I stepped up to the plate, and I bought quite a bit. I bought roughly $50,000 worth. I would assume that everything is running exactly the way you just want, and I hope you should do the same thing and support the stock price. Thank you very much for your time. Answer: Thank you for your comments, sir. And, as stated, through the call and as you can see in our financial results, the company has never been stronger. The fact that we have a headline EPS miss against analyst consensus is related to the timing of our withholding taxes. If we adjust for those 6¢, we're above analyst consensus for earnings per share. And with respect to our elevated ASIC, for example, which has been an issue of topic of discussion, it has to do with the fact that we are investing in the business. Our Seguela mine, our flagship asset, carries today about seventy-eight million dollars worth of capital. It enables the mine to expand production into next year. So all of those are positive. There is no free lunch. You need to invest the money to capture the opportunities, and that's what we're doing. All of this with a very strong balance sheet that backs the company. Right? We have been very careful in putting together a fortress balance sheet, and we are very comfortable that we can move our business forward, capture the growth opportunities we have in our portfolio. Yeah. So as I said in the call, I have never seen Fortuna as strong and better positioned as I see it today, sir.
Question 2: Just wondering if there's anything additional you can share on some of the investments that you've made, you know, on Awale and some of the others. And maybe just sort of strategically, do you see yourself making some more of these investments and ultimately maybe as a way of, you know, gaining additional projects for the pipeline? Thanks. Answer: Yes. Thank you, Eric. Here, what I would like to say first is that the investments that we have been making over the past, you know, twenty-four months are rendering fruit. Right? We have been able to advance the Amba Sud. You've seen the recent publication of our resources. And the near future of the company with respect to expanding ounces is under our control, and that's a key message. We have clear opportunities at Seguela, and we're delivering clear opportunities at the Amba Sud for growth. On top of that, we are very active across the regions where we work. The Awale investment, Awale sits on a regional structural trend, a basin margin in the Birimian that is very intriguing to us. We like the team at Awale. They are frugal, and they are technically capable. They are steadily advancing with their work, and we like their approach. And so, you know, and their position in an area that is, again, intriguing to us. So we've been we have invested in the company and look forward to seeing how their progress advances. We have other initiatives in Argentina as well for early-stage projects. So we're populating the pipeline of earlier-stage opportunities. We see a lot of value there. Some of these opportunities might bear, you know, higher geologic risk in exchange for lower financial risk to the company because some of them, a lot of them, are early stage. But, again, that's where we are finding a lot of value. And we're actively putting together either investments like Awale or option agreements that might lead to joint ventures. And we're active there in Cote D'Ivoire, in Mexico, and in Argentina as well there.
Question 3: In Senegal, what's your experience to date in permitting and, you know, as that project moves forward, I assume you feel pretty confident being able to get the necessary development. Answer: Yes. You know, I have met personally with the Minister of Mines and his team on several occasions by now. And what I see is a government that's quite supportive of new developments. And we recently hosted government officials from the Ministry of Mines and local authorities in Senegal and around the Amba Sud at our Seguela mine in Cote D'Ivoire. It was a very good visit. I think the project is being has been is being continues to be well socialized with the authorities and key stakeholders. And we're finding a lot of support. We're finding a lot of support. And yeah. So far, we are well advanced with our environmental impact statement approval. We're ready to submit in the month of September. And we expect to have an environmental approval early next year.
Question 4: For Amba Sud specifically, with the expectation of the environmental approval early next year, could you maybe walk us through the key milestones for the Amba Sud in terms of PEA by the end of the year? You get the environmental approval. And then what are the next steps we go towards the PFS, or do you start assessing the potential to take this into construction if you have the right permits in place? Thank you. Answer: Yes. Let me start by saying that this recent publication of a million-ounce resource between indicated and inferred is a game changer for our view of the project. Right? And just as a small recap, when we acquired Chesser, they had a historic resource of about 800,000 ounces. We saw some risks there. And we decided to go in, drill, and rebuild the geologic model. As an outcome of that, the resource shrunk to 600,000 ounces. So we went back, and we've been drilling, enhancing our knowledge of the deposit. Our original expectation is that we would be where we're standing today by year-end 2025. So this result, this million ounces that we've been able to produce with clear opportunities to continue expanding it, is a significant change in our approach to the project. So to go straight to your question, we are aiming to submit, along with exploration, we've been carrying a lot of parallel activities on permitting and engineering. So we are ready to present our environmental permits for review and approval in the coming month. And we expect to have an approval of that environmental document early in 2026. We expect we're planning to publish a PEA in the month of October, probably late October, early November, have a PEA out. But all of the process, design, ancillary facilities of that PEA really carry by now feasibility level. Are at the feasibility level. So our view is that we will transition quickly into a feasibility study early in 2026. So that's where we are setting our sights. Into a feasibility study in early 2026. And consistent with that, a construction decision. And we are advancing capital for early works right now. We have approved a $17 million budget already for some early works. Because, you know, as the project advances and we are breaching this million-ounce threshold with clear opportunities to continue expanding the resource, we're getting as well more courageous on our view of a viable project. Right? So that is the timeline for us now, I would say, you know, environmental approval early next year, submission this year, early next year, approval. PEA by late October, feasibility study in, you know, H1. No? Middle of H1. 2026. Those are roughly the timelines we're seeing for the Amba.
Question 5: Could you maybe help us know if there's a CapEx spend Q3 and Q4 will likely be equal or if it's more weighted to Q3 or Q4. Answer: There should be slightly more weighing into the second half of the year. Particularly, we expect in Q3. And, again, coming slightly down in Q4, which is part of the driver for the projected lower ASIC in the latter part of the year. Right. The key message here is that, you know, we have one of our mines, Lindero, trending down on ASIC. From a high ASIC at the beginning of the year towards a low ASIC at the end of the year. And Seguela trending the opposite. Our ASIC at the beginning of the year at Seguela was a low, you know, under $1,200. Sorry. And under $1,300 per ounce. And it, you know, as investments are picking up and stripping is picking up according to plan, that ASIC is gonna gravitate higher. Right? So and, again, Seguela is the mine that is expanding into next year. It's expanding production into next year. So, therefore, the capital buildup throughout the year.
Question 6: The comment on the $17.50 was related to 2026. And it would represent a decrease in ASIC with respect to our guidance for 2025. So the key message is ASIC is gonna be somewhat higher in Q2 and Q3 of this year. Coming down towards Q4, and we anticipate even a lower ASIC into 2026 at these levels. Answer: So the comment on the $17.50 was related to 2026. And it would represent a decrease in ASIC with respect to our guidance for 2025. So the key message is ASIC is gonna be somewhat higher in Q2 and Q3 of this year. Coming down towards Q4, and we anticipate even a lower ASIC into 2026 at these levels.
Question 7: You discussed your pipeline quite a bit. That was interesting. But I wonder if you could quantify a little more specifically the greenfields, the number of projects, the geographies, how much you're spending, you know, this year, next year, and how the spend compares on a historic basis to your greenfields exploration? Answer: Hello, Adrian. Hello. And first, geography. We currently have on the greenfield site three opportunities being pursued. One, of course, is Awale through our investment. I'm not sure if you follow Awale, but they have a commanding land position in a most intriguing geologic setting. Already have made a significant discovery. They have a joint venture on that discovery with Newmont. But outside of that joint venture, there is a significant land package that continues to offer, we believe, very good potential, and that's what's intriguing to us. In the north of Barrick's Tongon Mines, we have a joint venture also an option agreement for a joint venture in Northern Cote D'Ivoire. That's the Tongon North project. It's a project where we're currently we've been drilling this first half of the year. Drilling has stopped due to rains. And we look to resume in the second half of the year. But we're testing major structures in the Birimian with the identified gold in Augur. And big structures, long trends. We're drilling. You know? And we look forward to reporting when we find something that merits reporting. Right? We're finding gold. We're finding gold in the structures. We need to see where those structures blow up right, and offer opportunity for size and tonnage and grade. And we have an early discovery, I would say, in our Greek Leo property in Cote D'Ivoire as well in the south. Where we have identified a very large five-kilometer gold-in-soil anomaly in a concession that's owned 100% by us. And that is one. No? Cote D'Ivoire. And you see we're very active, not only on Brownfields but in Greenfields. We're looking at opportunities in Guinea. Right? As well. Moving on to Senegal, we're right now very much focused on the land package we control around Amba Sud, which is sizable. So we have a program where we're drilling the main core property of Amba Sud also within the larger property package, we're doing a lot of generative work. Across the Atlantic in Mexico, we have currently two, three active joint ventures for early-stage opportunities. And in Argentina, we just did an option agreement with a local party to explore what I would categorize as one of the largest in-heated anomalies in the province of Salta up there close to the Chilean border. And that's early stage. It's an option agreement, and after the winter, we look forward to initiating our first drilling campaigns. So our exploration budget for greenfields right now sits at about $11 million. And that does not include any of the work we're doing at the Amba. No. That's excluding the Amba Sud. The budget is $11 million. Our global exploration budget, including now Amba Sud, stands at about $51 million. Total exploration budget. That's up from $41 million in 2024. So we have increased our budget, our global budget for brownfields, greenfields, all that is under the concept of exploration and new project development. Has gone up from $41 million in 2024 up to $51 million in 2025. But we feel we're well funded, and we have clear opportunities in front of us.
Question 8: I was wondering if you're actively looking to buy another company or possibly merge. Maybe you can't talk about that stuff now, but I was just curious. Answer: Yes. The answer to that, sir, is that when we think of acquisitions, they are answering the needs for growth mainly. Right? And we are very comfortable and calm that we have a very robust clear opportunity for growth within our control, in our portfolio. So and that would be growth that we can deliver at the lowest cost and dilution to our shareholders. Right? The most accretive growth we can provide our shareholders is organic growth. And that's under our control. As I spoke during the call already, the Amba Sud and Seguela right now offer clear opportunities for that. No? And we're always paying attention for value opportunities, but I would characterize it as this. We have no need to chase ounces. We are chasing value. And if we see value out there, you'll see us very aggressively. We have the balance sheet to pursue big opportunities. But our search is for value, not ounces. You know? We can produce the ounces organically. And that's the cheapest, most value we can deliver to our shareholders, advancing what's already in the portfolio, and that is our primary focus.
[Sentiment Analysis] Analysts and management displayed a positive tone, with analysts expressing confidence in the company's strategic direction and management emphasizing the strength of the balance sheet and growth prospects.
[Quarterly Comparison] | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | |--------|---------|---------| | Liquidity | $537 million | $461 million | | Net Cash | $215 million | $137 million | | EBITDA Margin | 55% | 50% | | Operating Margin | 36% | 28% | | Net Earnings | $41 million | $33 million | | Gold Production | 71,229 ounces | 70,000 ounces | | Cash Cost per Ounce | $929 | $868 | | ASIC | $1,932 | $1,750 |
[Risks and Concerns] Chief Financial Officer Luis Dario Ganoza noted delays in VAT receivables at the Ivory Coast operations, with $37 million outstanding for approximately seventeen months. A large portion of annual tax payments concentrated in Q2 2025, impacting quarterly cash flow timing.
[Final Takeaway] Fortuna Mining's strategic streamlining and focus on high-margin, long-life assets have positioned the company for robust future growth. The sale of two mines has freed capital for higher-value projects, with significant production increases expected from Seguela and Amba Sud. Despite temporary cost elevations due to capital investments, the company's strong balance sheet and clear growth pipeline provide confidence in achieving its production targets and enhancing shareholder value.
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