Gold Market Review and Key Insights: Last week, London spot gold closed at $5,018 per ounce (down 2.9% week-over-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 1,131 yuan per gram (down 0.9% week-over-week).
US inflation for February largely met expectations. The year-over-year CPI and core CPI readings were 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, aligning with forecasts and matching prior figures. However, February's data did not yet reflect the surge in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict that began in late February. Market attention is now focused on US inflation trends for March and beyond.
Under a baseline scenario, the impact of oil prices on inflation is likely temporary. With weak demand, inflation may lack lasting persistence. During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US economy was in a recovery phase, whereas the current US economy shows overall weakness, with clear constraints on household consumption capacity and the labor market. Consequently, price transmission mechanisms are less fluid than during the Russia-Ukraine period, and inflation lacks sustained upward momentum. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's current interest rates remain relatively high, exerting some suppressive effect on the economy. Therefore, under the baseline assumption, US inflation may see a slight rebound in the first half of the year but could gradually ease in the second half. Correspondingly, the timing of Fed rate cuts may be delayed rather than reduced. According to interest rate futures, market expectations currently price in two rate cuts, one in September this year and another in June next year.
Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East and expectations for Fed rate cuts remain crucial short-to-medium-term factors influencing gold. The Federal Reserve's March policy meeting statement will be released early on March 19, Beijing time. Key points to watch include Fed officials' views on imported inflation and their dilemma in balancing inflation control with employment support. Additionally, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will also announce their interest rate decisions this week.
From a trading perspective, after a period of consolidation, gold option implied volatility has declined noticeably, and gold prices show signs of stabilization. The allocation value of gold is gradually emerging, suggesting participation in gold investments with a steady, broad-asset allocation approach.
Over the medium to long term, the macroeconomic factors supporting gold have not reversed. These include sustained gold purchasing demand from global central banks amid de-dollarization, pressure on the long-term credibility of the US dollar from "fiscal dominance" policies, and systemic risks arising from the fragmentation of the global geopolitical landscape. Gold's value in hedging against "international order collapse risk" and "sovereign currency risk" continues to be evident.
Key signals for gold investors to monitor in the coming week: (1) Developments in the Middle East situation; (2) The outcome of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting.
Related Products: - Gold ETF (518880) / Connect A (000216) / Connect C (000217) - Gold Equity ETF (159321)
Comparison of RMB-denominated Gold and International Gold Price Trends:
Data source: Wind, Hua An Fund, as of 2026/3/15
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