On Friday, April 17, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold initially declined before rising, currently trading near the opening price of around $4790. On Thursday, April 16, spot gold twice attempted to break above $4840 before retreating, with a pullback occurring during the US trading session. The day ultimately closed with a very small-bodied doji candlestick, finishing almost flat.
On the fundamental front, strong US initial jobless claims data were released yesterday evening. The data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell significantly to 207,000, below the expected 215,000, marking the largest weekly decline since February and highlighting the continued resilience of the US labor market. The US dollar staged a technical rebound against major currencies on Thursday, with the dollar index rising 0.2% to 98.19, recovering from its lowest level since late February. Investors are awaiting further news on a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran.
Geopolitically, tensions in the Middle East have notably eased. The Trump administration stated that the US-Iran-Israel conflict is "coming to an end," and Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day temporary ceasefire agreement. Additionally, the US and Iran are expected to resume negotiations in Pakistan this weekend, leading to a rapid dissipation of the previously elevated risk aversion sentiment in the market. Although the US military has simultaneously expanded its blockade on Iranian crude oil, steel, and other materials, and the US Treasury Department is initiating an operation codenamed "Economic Fury" to "exert maximum economic pressure" on Iran, presenting a "talks and pressure" approach, the overall expectation of de-escalation is dominating the market. Furthermore, while Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian energy facilities have heightened energy concerns in Europe, the impact remains limited.
From a technical perspective, looking at the daily chart for gold, prices rebounded above the moving average band in the first half of the week due to sentiment-driven news. However, the overall trend weakened in the latter half, lacking the momentum for further upward movement, which more clearly reflects the current market's dependency on news flow. Intraday, gold is likely to continue oscillating. Market anticipation regarding US-Iran negotiations makes short-term direction difficult to determine. However, considering the potential impact of a short-term rebound in the US dollar index, there is a possibility that gold could break below the 10-day moving average support at $4750 today. If the 10-day moving average is lost, attention may shift to the battle near the 20-day moving average around $4650. If there is a rebound intraday, continued focus will be on the short-term resistance zone between $4840 and $4850.
Analyzing the gold 1-hour chart, the overall structural center of gravity for yesterday's price action was biased downward. The hourly moving averages are crossed lower, suggesting the potential for further downward movement in today's session. Intraday, resistance can be monitored near the hourly moving average band around $4805-$4810. The main upper resistance is seen around the upper boundary of the hourly chart's range, between $4830-$4835. Support below is watched near $4750. A breakout from this range would likely require a sudden, significant news catalyst.
Today's trading suggestion: Consider initiating a light short position on a rebound towards $4800. This position can have a temporary stop-loss set above $4810. If the price tests the $4830-$4835 area again, aggressive traders could also consider a short position, with a manual stop-loss to be placed above $4840. The initial target is set for $4780-$4770, where partial profits can be taken and the stop-loss adjusted to breakeven. The remaining position can be held to see if a retreat towards $4750/$4740 materializes.