Orient Securities Company Limited has released a research report analyzing the 12th round of national centralized drug procurement. The key shift is a move from "low-price competition" toward a comprehensive evaluation that includes price, clinical demand, manufacturer base, and supply capability. The dual-anchor mechanism and a bid transparency rule are designed to reduce the impact of extreme low bids on the overall pricing system. A revival mechanism ensures that major manufacturers with strong clinical foundations and some original research products retain access to hospital procurement channels. Focus should be on companies that secure multiple or large-volume winning bids, possessing capabilities in scale production, cost control, and multi-product supply.

Event

On July 31, the 12th round of national centralized drug procurement bidding was completed, with all 65 designated products successfully procured. To date, national procurement has covered 555 drugs in total. The procurement cycle runs from the implementation date of the results to December 31, 2029. It is expected that patients nationwide will gain access to the price-reduced selected drugs from this round within the year.

Rules: Dual Anchor Points Combat Internal Competition, Revival Mechanism Stabilizes Clinical Use

Building on the single anchor point of the 11th round, the 12th round introduces Anchor Price 1 and Anchor Price 2. Companies bidding below Anchor Price 2 may qualify for selection but receive a contracted procurement volume of zero and do not occupy reserved spots, shifting extreme low bids from "selected with volume" to "selected without volume." This reduces the incentive for companies to pursue ultra-low prices solely for market share. Additionally, enhanced Rule 3 provides a revival pathway for companies that did not enter the final selection but have high demand for their products and a strong clinical foundation, granting them 30%, 50%, or 80% of contracted procurement volume based on their price tier. Eligible reference preparations can also be treated as selected without volume allocation. Overall, the competition is evolving from a single-minded pursuit of the lowest price toward a balanced consideration of price, clinical demand, and supply capability.

Product Categories: Clear Divergence, Intense Overall Competition

The 65 products in the 12th round have a combined market size of approximately 74.56 billion yuan in 2025. The top 10 products, including sacubitril/valsartan, tacrolimus, indobufen, and ceftazidime/avibactam, account for nearly half of this total sales value. Based on the number of approved generic equivalents, products like tacrolimus, imipenem/cilastatin, cyclosporine, ambroxol hydrochloride inhalation solution, and fenofibrate have large market sizes but relatively manageable competition. In contrast, products such as vitamin B6, bisoprolol/amlodipine, bumetanide, potassium phosphate dibasic trihydrate, calcium chloride, and azilsartan medoxomil have smaller market sizes and face more crowded and competitive landscapes. Final bidding data shows an average of 15 companies participating per product, with the most competitive product attracting 49 bidders, indicating intense overall competition.

Results: Record Number of Original Research Products, Winning Bids Better Aligned with Clinical Needs

In this round, 859 products from 495 companies were submitted for bidding, with 521 products from 327 companies securing tentative selection status, an improvement in the selection rate. Ten reference preparations were selected, including Novartis's sacubitril/valsartan, Bayer's iopromide, Eisai's betahistine, and Abbott's dydrogesterone. Major domestic players like Qilu Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical, Shijiazhuang No. 4 Pharmaceutical, and Bette Pharmaceutical also achieved multi-product selections. Overall, the 12th round emphasizes the goals of "stabilizing clinical use, combating internal competition, ensuring quality, and guaranteeing supply," transitioning from single-factor low-price competition to a more comprehensive approach, with winning results more closely aligned with actual clinical needs.

Risk Warning

Risks include changes in the final selection results, procurement price reductions exceeding expectations, and actual procurement volume falling short of projections.