Lincoln Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Healthcare Expansion and Strategic Campus Growth

Earnings Call
Nov 11

[Management View]
Lincoln Educational Services reported robust growth in its core Transportation and Skilled Trades segments, alongside steady expansion in Healthcare programs. Management emphasized strategic priorities, including new campus developments, program launches, and addressing accreditation constraints to expand degree-granting capabilities. Long-term revenue guidance was updated to $600 million, reflecting announced expansions and program additions.

[Outlook]
The company forecasts 15%-20% starts growth for Q4 2025, driven by enrollment momentum and new campus openings. Future plans include expanding RN programs contingent on state-by-state regulatory approvals, targeting high school graduate demand, and leveraging larger campus facilities with undeveloped space for future programs.

[Financial Performance]
Lincoln reported a 2% growth in Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN) and Medical Assisting programs in Q3, offsetting declines in Massage and Culinary programs. Tuition increased by 3% or less, contributing to a 4% rise in average revenue per student due to pricing adjustments, program mix, and book/tool revenue timing. Veteran enrollment declined to 5%-6% due to diploma/hybrid delivery model limitations, with plans to reverse this trend through degree-granting initiatives.

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: What drove the strong performance in Q3, and what is the expectation for Q4 starts growth?
Answer: The company clarified that Q4 starts growth is forecasted at 15%-20%, not 30%. Strong interest overall, coupled with the performance of new campuses and programs, contributed to the robust outlook.

Question 2: Could you elaborate on the East Point campus expansion and its impact on student capacity?
Answer: The East Point campus expansion will add approximately 500 student capacity. This is part of the company's strategy to right-size space and accommodate enrollment growth.

Question 3: What is the timeline for expanding RN programs, and what regulatory hurdles need to be addressed?
Answer: RN program expansion requires degree-granting status, which is a state-by-state process. Applications are underway in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, with timelines ranging from 12 to 48 months. The company is also evaluating RN program opportunities in states where degree-granting status already exists.

Question 4: How does the updated 2027 revenue guidance compare to the previous guide?
Answer: The updated $600 million guidance includes revenue from all announced campus expansions and program additions, such as Houston, East Point, Hicksville, and Rowlett campuses.

Question 5: What is the outlook for healthcare and nursing segment growth?
Answer: Healthcare and Other Professions represent 20% of the student population, with LPN and Medical Assisting programs continuing to grow. The company anticipates positive growth in 2026, supported by new nursing programs at the Paramus campus.

Question 6: What lessons were learned from the East Point campus that could be applied to new campus openings?
Answer: East Point's rapid fill-up highlighted the need for larger facilities. Future campuses, such as Houston and Rowlett, will feature 90,000 square feet with undeveloped space for future programs.

Question 7: What is the average ramp-up period for new campuses?
Answer: New campuses typically enroll 850-1,000 students within 18-24 months. East Point reached 700-800 enrollments within this timeframe, and similar performance is expected for other campuses.

Question 8: What is Lincoln's military exposure as a percentage of total enrollment?
Answer: Military enrollment accounts for 5%-6% of the student population, primarily veterans using GI Bill benefits. Degree-granting initiatives in states like New Jersey and New York aim to increase veteran enrollment.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts expressed optimism about Lincoln's strategic initiatives, particularly its healthcare expansion and campus growth plans. Management maintained a confident tone, emphasizing robust enrollment trends, stable regulatory conditions, and long-term growth opportunities.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | YoY Change |
|----------------------------|---------|---------|------------|
| LPN & Medical Assisting Growth | +2% | Flat | +2% |
| Tuition Increase | +3% | +3% | Stable |
| Average Revenue per Student| +4% | +3% | +1% |
| Veteran Enrollment | 5%-6% | 6%-7% | -1% |

[Risks and Concerns]
1. Regulatory hurdles for RN program expansion could delay growth in the healthcare segment.
2. Declines in veteran enrollment due to diploma/hybrid delivery model limitations may impact overall enrollment figures.
3. The phasing out of Massage and Culinary programs reduces diversification within the healthcare segment.

[Final Takeaway]
Lincoln Educational Services demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, driven by growth in core healthcare programs and strategic campus expansions. The company's updated revenue guidance reflects confidence in its ability to capitalize on enrollment momentum and high school graduate demand. While regulatory challenges and veteran enrollment declines pose risks, management's proactive initiatives and robust operational strategies position Lincoln for sustained growth in the coming years.

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