The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for January significantly exceeded expectations, boosting equity markets as investors speculated that economic resilience will continue to drive corporate earnings. Traders reduced their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices.
The S&P 500 approached its all-time high, rising 0.5% at the open. The Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed 4 basis points to 4.18%. Money markets shifted expectations for the timing of the Fed's first rate cut from June to July. The U.S. dollar was largely unchanged.
Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management commented, "Following softer data last week, the market may have expected a slowdown today, but the labor market instead hit the accelerator. Today's report shows accelerating job growth, strong enough to push the unemployment rate lower."
Bret Kenwell from eToro noted that this is precisely the kind of report investors welcome, even though it gives the Fed more room to maintain its current policy stance. "However, it's important to stay rational: this is just one report and doesn't erase recent softness in other data. Still, if the labor market is indeed stabilizing, it will have a positive impact on both the economy and markets," he added.
Brad Conger of Hirtle Callaghan pointed out that the broader implications may be felt in the stock market, as a stronger labor market can support trading activity across various sectors.
Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management suggested that if recent stock market volatility stemmed from concerns about labor market weakness and a potential recession, this report should help alleviate those worries in the near term. "Unless we see significant softening in the labor market, the economy, or corporate profits, we believe there are still opportunities to buy on dips in the current market," he further stated.
Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth indicated that the employment report essentially checked all the boxes: an improvement in the headline number, a stronger participation rate, and a lower unemployment rate.