Abstract

Newmont Corporation will post quarterly results on July 23, 2026 Post-Mkt, with current models pointing to solid year-over-year gains in revenue, EBIT, and EPS supported by a balanced contribution across core mines and disciplined capital allocation.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest projections, Newmont Corporation is expected to deliver revenue of 6.77 billion US dollars this quarter, up 42.87% year over year, with EBIT estimated at 3.42 billion US dollars (up 104.75% YoY) and forecast EPS of 2.25 (up 132.81% YoY). Margin forecasts were not provided, so consensus commentary centers on top-line and earnings leverage, while detailed gross profit and net profit margin estimates remain unavailable. Across the main operations, management’s prior update and recent run-rate indications imply steady throughput from the largest assets and a diversified revenue mix that continues to dilute site-specific variability. Within the portfolio, the most promising growth optionality attaches to projects advancing toward key milestones, with Red Chris contributing 145.00 million US dollars in the last quarter and poised for capacity decisions that could reshape medium-term production and cash flow.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Newmont Corporation reported revenue of 7.31 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 72.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.26 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 44.64%, and adjusted EPS of 2.90, representing 132.00% year-over-year growth. Revenue exceeded the estimate by 0.36 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS surpassed the estimate by 0.65, underscoring strong operating leverage to pricing and grade profiles. By site, Peñasquito contributed 1.18 billion US dollars, Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) delivered 1.17 billion US dollars, and Cadia added 745.00 million US dollars, with further contributions from Yanacocha at 677.00 million US dollars and Ahafo South at 597.00 million US dollars.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main operations and quarterly revenue drivers

The quarter’s revenue cadence is anchored by the largest producing assets that collectively shape both volume and unit cost trends. With revenue expected at 6.77 billion US dollars, the company’s mix should again reflect balanced contributions from the largest North American and Australian sites, combined with steady output from established West African and South American operations. Sequential shifts in ore grade and recovery rates typically influence realized margins; however, given the absence of explicit margin guidance for the quarter, investors will likely focus on whether the run-rate performance at flagship sites can sustain last quarter’s elevated profitability levels. The gross profit margin printed at 72.42% last quarter and the net profit margin at 44.64%, so the key watchpoint is whether throughput discipline and by-product credits can offset normal quarter-to-quarter variability in site cost curves. Cash costs per ounce and the stability of milling rates at the highest-contributing mines will be important for tracking incremental operating leverage, particularly where mining sequence and maintenance schedules can affect unit costs within a single reporting period. While quarter-specific guidance for margins is not available, the revenue and earnings forecasts imply that positive year-over-year momentum should remain intact, supported by a diversified base of operating assets and consistent execution around grade control and plant availability.

Growth project and most promising business: Red Chris and portfolio upgrades

The Red Chris Block Cave development advanced in the period with a key provincial regulatory approval, enabling an extended mine life concept and positioning the project for a final investment decision later in 2026. Although Red Chris contributed 145.00 million US dollars in the last quarter, its medium-term expansion potential is significant, and even before full-scale development, the project can influence sentiment around the company’s long-run production profile and optionality. Near term, investors should not expect Red Chris approvals to materially change this quarter’s consolidated revenue, yet stepwise milestones reduce uncertainty and often compress discount rates applied to future cash flows. The capital intensity of block cave development will be weighed against cash generation from the broader portfolio; in that light, management’s measured capital allocation approach and recent dividend calibration to 0.25 per share indicate a preference to protect balance sheet flexibility as the project pipeline matures. Beyond Red Chris, operating improvements and debottlenecking initiatives at established centers such as Cadia and Lihir are designed to support stable throughput and enhance recoveries, which, when combined with disciplined sustaining capital, can contribute to durable earnings quality even as individual sites move through different phases of their mine plans. The portfolio effect—multiple high-contributing assets each supported by targeted improvement projects—remains a core structural strength that feeds directly into consolidated EBIT and EPS trajectories, as suggested by the current quarter’s forecast growth rates.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

The first swing factor is earnings sensitivity to realized metal prices during the reporting period, which will play through to revenue, operating margins, and free cash flow. The absence of margin guidance heightens investor attention to drop-through rates on incremental revenue, especially given last quarter’s high gross and net profit margins; the market will parse whether efficiency gains and by-product credits can sustain margin resilience. The second factor is the trajectory of site-level unit costs and mining sequence: consistent execution at Peñasquito, NGM, and the Australian assets tends to smooth volatility across the group, yet any unplanned downtime at a large mine can affect consolidated results. A third factor is the capital allocation signal: with the quarterly dividend now set at 0.25 per share, investors will look for commentary on the balance between shareholder returns and growth capex, particularly for projects nearing investment decisions. Additionally, portfolio optimization and progress on previously announced non-core asset actions can influence the earnings base and valuation framework; clarity on timing, proceeds, and reinvestment priorities may support multiple stability. Finally, guidance alignment for the remainder of the year is crucial: with forecast EPS at 2.25 (up 132.81% YoY) and EBIT at 3.42 billion US dollars (up 104.75% YoY), management’s qualitative color on production cadence, sustaining capital, and any planned maintenance will frame how much of the quarterly outperformance can translate into consistent run-rate earnings.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent rating actions and published targets within the current six-month window, the balance of opinion is decisively bullish. Counting the latest updates, there are multiple Buy/Outperform or Overweight views against a single Neutral, yielding a bullish-to-neutral ratio of roughly 9:1. Notable institutions are aligned: RBC Capital maintains an Outperform rating with a 135 US dollars target, TD Cowen upgraded the shares to Buy with a 127 US dollars target, and BMO Capital Markets reiterates Outperform with a 135 US dollars target. Bank of America maintains a Buy rating with a 132 US dollars target, Goldman Sachs maintains Buy with a target of 111.40 US dollars, and Barclays remains Overweight with a 125 US dollars target. Macquarie continues to rate the shares Outperform with a 121 US dollars target, and Jefferies maintains Buy with targets cited at 154–158 US dollars. The cluster of Buy/Outperform calls and consistent target ranges suggest that analysts, in aggregate, expect earnings resilience and improving capital returns as the project pipeline advances and as cost normalization trends continue at core operations. The bullish case emphasizes three pillars. First, the forecast acceleration in revenue, EBIT, and EPS—6.77 billion US dollars in revenue (up 42.87% YoY), 3.42 billion US dollars in EBIT (up 104.75% YoY), and 2.25 EPS (up 132.81% YoY)—implies robust operating leverage to realized pricing and throughput stability, even without explicit margin guidance. Analysts argue that this leverage is supported by a broad set of producing assets that limit dependence on any single mine, thereby sustaining consolidated performance through normal operational variability. Second, the active capital program and measured dividend policy are seen as balancing near-term shareholder returns with long-horizon value creation; the recalibration to a 0.25 per-share quarterly dividend preserves optionality for high-return growth projects while maintaining an income component. This approach, in the analyst view, reduces execution risk by keeping balance sheet capacity aligned with the scale and timing of major investment decisions. Third, the project pipeline, highlighted by the recent regulatory approval for the Red Chris Block Cave, provides visibility on future production growth and cash flow depth. While this quarter’s earnings will not reflect a step-change from Red Chris, the steady derisking of the project, coupled with improvements and debottlenecking at operating hubs, supports upward revisions to medium-term estimates and sustains higher target multiples across several coverage lists. Within this context, institutions point to several KPIs that could validate their thesis as the quarter is reported and discussed. Revenue mix will be scrutinized for the relative contributions of Peñasquito (1.18 billion US dollars last quarter) and NGM (1.17 billion US dollars last quarter), with analysts monitoring whether grade and recovery trends remain consistent with recent run rates. On costs, the focus is on whether unit cost discipline persists across the largest sites, enabling the company to carry forward a portion of last quarter’s high gross (72.42%) and net (44.64%) margins. On capital allocation, analysts will look for commentary that reaffirms a balanced framework—funding growth while keeping shareholder distributions steady—and any incremental color on the timing of final investment decisions for Red Chris and expected production milestones at other prioritized projects. Most published targets from RBC Capital, BMO Capital Markets, Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, and Jefferies cluster in a range that implies confidence in sustained free-cash-flow generation through the cycle, conditioned on the company executing its mine plans and project schedules as outlined. In sum, the majority analyst view is that Newmont Corporation enters this print with positive momentum and identifiable catalysts. The combination of a diversified revenue base, forecast earnings expansion, and tangible project progress supports the expectation that quarterly results can track or exceed the current revenue and EPS estimates. As such, coverage remains skewed toward Buy/Outperform ratings, with institutions emphasizing that, even in the absence of explicit margin guidance for the quarter, the forecast revenue growth of 42.87% year over year and the EPS inflection underpin a constructive stance on the shares around the upcoming release.