JPMorgan Adjusts Li Auto-W Price Target Down to HK$56, Maintains "Underweight" Stance

Stock News
May 29

JPMorgan released a research report indicating that Li Auto-W's (02015) first-quarter performance was largely in line with market expectations but fell approximately 15% below the bank's forecasts. The firm maintains a cautious long-term view on Li Auto, believing the intensely competitive market environment limits potential upside surprises in both sales volume and profitability. The bank reiterated its "Underweight" rating on Li Auto. The Hong Kong stock price target was lowered from HK$60 to HK$56, while the target for Li Auto (LI.US) was reduced from US$15.5 to US$14. During the earnings call, management outlined several strategic initiatives. These include upgrading the product portfolio, with the new L9 and upcoming L8 models strengthening the brand's positioning in the high-end SUV segment, which is expected to help gradually restore gross margins starting in the second quarter. Regarding overseas expansion, the L-series extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) have entered the Middle East and Central Asia, with further expansion into Southeast Asia planned from May. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are scheduled to launch in Europe in the second half of 2026, followed by right-hand-drive products entering the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. Additionally, the company's self-developed M100 AI chip and VLA large model are positioned as core technologies for the next generation. However, JPMorgan noted that numerous Chinese competitors, including Nio, Xpeng, Huawei, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and Leapmotor, are launching EREV and BEV products with increasing overlap in price, specifications, channels, and target family buyer segments compared to Li Auto's core offerings. This could impact revenue growth momentum. Simultaneously, ongoing price competition, promotional activities, and input cost inflation may continue to exert pressure on profit margins.

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