Abstract

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. will report quarterly results on February 19, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching for mid-single-digit revenue growth, accelerating year-over-year EPS, and the sustainability of recent gross margin execution as category mix and promotions shape the near-term trajectory.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest forecast dataset, the market is looking for Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. to deliver approximately 1.13 billion in revenue this quarter, up 4.32% year over year, with adjusted EPS around 0.35, up 36.26% year over year, and EBIT of 48.49 million, up 37.20% year over year; gross margin and net margin guidance are not disclosed in the forecast data. The revenue mix remains anchored by large, in-stock hard-surface categories and attachment-driven accessories, and management attention this quarter is likely to center on traffic, ticket, and promotional cadence to support comp stabilization. Among categories, Laminate/Luxury Vinyl appears positioned to be the most promising contribution driver, having posted 274.11 million in last quarter’s revenue; year-over-year growth for this category was not disclosed in the dataset, though its breadth of options supports add-on sales in underlayment and trims.

Last Quarter Review

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. reported last quarter revenue of 1.18 billion, a 5.51% year-over-year increase, with gross profit margin at 44.68%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company at 57.26 million, net profit margin at 4.85%, and adjusted EPS at 0.53, up 10.42% year over year. The company exceeded the quarter’s consensus on both revenue and EPS, supported by EBIT of 72.02 million, which was up 8.60% year over year, indicating solid operating performance relative to expectations. In category terms, Laminate/Luxury Vinyl delivered 274.11 million and Tile contributed 268.52 million, while Installation Materials and Tools generated 248.93 million and Decorative Accessories reached 193.68 million, underscoring the importance of attachment-rate categories in overall gross profit dollars; year-over-year growth by category was not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core flooring sales momentum and profit conversion

The central question this quarter is whether Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. can maintain the revenue pace implied by a 4.32% year-over-year growth forecast while translating that top-line into improved profit conversion. The forecast acceleration in adjusted EPS to approximately 0.35, up 36.26% year over year, implies meaningful operating leverage from mix, cost, and SG&A control even as promotion remains an integral traffic tool. Gross profit margin execution last quarter at 44.68% provides a supportive base; sustaining that performance will likely require disciplined price investment balanced by mix toward higher-margin attachments, while avoiding outsized discount intensity that could pressure unit economics. Store growth and associated pre-opening and ramp costs typically weigh on near-term SG&A, but the forecasted EBIT of 48.49 million, up 37.20% year over year, suggests the model is expected to harvest leverage from scale, distribution productivity, and category margin management despite these headwinds.

The composition of revenue also matters for margin durability. A healthy contribution from Installation Materials and Tools and Decorative Accessories often supports gross margin dollars via attachments per transaction. These categories, at 248.93 million and 193.68 million last quarter respectively, typically track overall project activity and benefit from linked merchandising that pairs with core surface sales. If the current quarter preserves attach rates in underlayment, setting materials, tools, and trims, the company should continue to support gross profit per ticket and mitigate any line-item promotional pressure in core surfaces. The path to the consensus EPS thus looks tied to stable traffic, resilient ticket, and the effective stewardship of price and promotion to preserve merchandise margin.

Laminate/Luxury Vinyl as the near-term upside lever

Laminate/Luxury Vinyl, at 274.11 million in last quarter’s revenue, remains the largest category and a focus for incremental upside given its breadth of price points and broad assortment. This product set often enables projects to be configured across budgets without abandoning quality or design considerations, which can protect unit volumes when customers calibrate spend. While year-over-year growth for the category is not disclosed in the dataset, its size, in-stock availability, and adjacency to profitable attachments (such as underlayment and trims) position it to underpin both revenue and gross profit dollar performance in the quarter being reported. A constructive outcome for EPS is more plausible if this category sustains stable demand patterns and the company selectively leans into promotions that drive traffic without materially diluting mix.

Beyond absolute category sales, the mix within Laminate/Luxury Vinyl could influence the margin profile. Higher-spec material and premium finishes can support better merchandise margin, and effective in-aisle merchandising often lifts add-on rates for installation products. The balance to watch is whether promotional elasticity drives incremental units at a margin trade-off that remains accretive at the gross profit dollar level. If the company continues to align plans to these mix dynamics, the forecasted EBIT growth of 37.20% year over year looks attainable even if total revenue growth remains mid-single-digit.

What could matter most for the stock this quarter

Three factors are likely to exert the greatest influence on how the stock trades around the print: the revenue growth cadence versus the 4.32% year-over-year bar, the gross margin directionality relative to the 44.68% baseline, and the degree of EPS leverage implied by the 36.26% year-over-year step-up. Investors will look for reassurance that revenue growth is supported by both unit volume and stable average ticket rather than a heavy promotional mix. The tone around early-year promotional events, category resets, and inventory freshness can shape near-term expectations about traffic trends and full-quarter run rates.

Gross margin commentary will be central because it connects to both category mix and pricing decisions. If management indicates stable merchandise margins with continued benefit from mix and attachments, that could support the implied EBIT trajectory. Conversely, evidence of higher-than-expected promotional cadence or freight and product cost pressure could moderate the EPS expansion embedded in the forecast. SG&A efficiency is the third lever: pre-opening expenses, labor productivity, and marketing efficiency all influence the conversion of revenue growth to EPS. An outcome that demonstrates expense discipline while continuing the store-opening pipeline would likely align with consensus expectations for this quarter’s EBIT and EPS.

Analyst Opinions

The majority stance among recent institutional commentaries is neutral, with Hold ratings dominating, and no clear skew toward overtly bullish or bearish calls in the latest six-month window. Wells Fargo, through analyst Zachary Fadem, maintained a Hold rating with a 70.00 price target, signaling a balanced view that recognizes steady execution but refrains from an outright positive call ahead of the results on February 19, 2026. Telsey Advisory, via analyst Jason Strominger, also reiterated a Hold rating, setting a 92.00 price target, which similarly frames a neutral stance that awaits validation from near-term earnings and margin performance before shifting to a more directional view.

With neutral opinions prevailing, the analysis that follows focuses on how these institutions are likely framing the quarter. The consensus revenue expectation of about 1.13 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly 0.35 set a bar that assumes stable top-line growth and improved operating leverage. From a neutral vantage point, the key watch items include the sustainability of gross profit margin execution around mix and attachments, the balance between promotion and price integrity, and the translation of mid-single-digit revenue growth into high-30s EBIT and EPS growth. When rating stances cluster around Hold, it often implies that visibility into near-term outperformance is limited by a handful of execution variables, rather than a disagreement about the direction of the business. In this case, category mix, promotional cadence, and SG&A productivity are the variables that these institutions are likely to monitor as determinants of whether the stock merits a more constructive rating.

A neutral majority also underscores the importance of the management update on the call. If commentary corroborates the forecasted EPS and EBIT acceleration and provides credible detail on the composition of growth in Laminate/Luxury Vinyl, Tile, and attachment categories, that could nudge sentiment toward a more positive interpretation even without formal margin guidance. Alternatively, if the quarter’s outcome meets revenue expectations but falls short on profit conversion, that would reinforce a wait-and-see posture consistent with Hold ratings. In practical terms, this means the Street will pay close attention to qualitative detail around traffic and ticket trends, the cadence and elasticity of promotions, and any early signals for the next quarter’s demand and cost environment.

In summary, the prevailing institutional tone is balanced and consistent with the current consensus trajectory: mid-single-digit revenue growth and reacceleration in EPS and EBIT, underpinned by category mix and expense discipline. Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. enters the print with last quarter’s execution on margins and a record of modest top-line outperformance versus estimates, and the test for sentiment is whether those elements can be repeated with a similar or better profile in the quarter being reported. The neutral majority is prepared to reward confirmation of that pattern, yet it is equally poised to withhold a more directional call until the balance of promotion, mix, and operating leverage is demonstrated with greater consistency in the data and commentary.