Market Insight: On Thursday, March 26, former President Trump announced that, at Iran's request, the deadline for halting strikes on Iranian energy facilities would be extended by 10 days to April 6. On the surface, this appears to be a goodwill gesture indicating progress in peace talks. However, spot gold plunged 2.8% that day to $4,377.85 per ounce, while April gold futures tumbled 3.9% to $4,376.3 per ounce. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, gold has fallen by a cumulative 17%, completely breaking from the traditional safe-haven logic seen during geopolitical conflicts. Amid this "fog of war," oil prices have surged, inflation alarms have sounded, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year has risen to 40%, helping the U.S. dollar index post three consecutive days of gains and putting significant pressure on gold prices.
In the short term, as long as U.S.-Iran negotiations fail to yield substantive, verifiable breakthroughs, while inflation and tightening expectations persist, gold prices may continue to face downward pressure. However, investors should also recognize that this situation is highly fragile. Any event leading to an escalation of conflict could quickly reverse the current market logic, causing gold’s safe-haven attributes to shine once again. At the same time, once market expectations for Fed tightening peak and begin to recede, gold will also find room to recover. The future direction of gold prices will depend on genuine progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the next moves in oil prices, and how the Fed balances inflation control with potential economic shocks. Until these factors become clear, gold’s "roller-coaster" performance may continue.
Gold Market Analysis: Recent precious metal market movements have been volatile, leaving many investors uncertain about the direction. In reality, understanding short-term fluctuations and key levels can help clarify the rhythm. As previously discussed, gold is expected to undergo a period of consolidation within a low range, with an emphasis on the pattern of initial pullback followed by oscillating gains. Recent price action has fully confirmed this outlook, with no significant deviations.
Reviewing the session: During Asian and European trading hours, gold first retreated oscillatingly, touching the $4,400 level. In late-night trading, it further tested the key support at $4,350, then quickly stabilized and rebounded, ultimately closing firmly above $4,400. This dip-and-recovery pattern confirms that the earlier decline was a short-term adjustment rather than a one-way downtrend. The current market is in the anticipated recovery phase following the pullback, with expectations of gradually testing higher levels going forward.
From a technical perspective, the previous day’s decline resulted in a bearish daily close, interrupting the three-day winning streak earlier in the week. Price action remains temporarily suppressed below the 10-day moving average, indicating that the broader short-term trend remains weak and not yet fully bullish. However, switching to the 4-hour chart clearly shows the Bollinger Bands beginning to contract and moving averages converging—a typical signal of low-range consolidation and base-building. Even if short-term weakness persists, further significant declines are unlikely; instead, there is strong potential for a rebound. Notably, after bottoming at $4,350 in late-night trading, the 4-hour chart has formed a clear base pattern. Therefore, the outlook favors oscillating gains, with a focus on the resistance near $4,500. A break above this level could open the path toward $4,600.
It is also important to note that the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March will be released at 10 p.m. ET tonight. This data may influence market sentiment and is likely to cause short-term volatility in gold. Traders should closely monitor its impact and manage risks accordingly.
Silver Market Analysis: After previously declining to the support level near 68, silver followed gold lower during Thursday’s late session, testing the key level of 66.5 before stabilizing and rebounding. It has since recovered to around 69, also displaying a clear bottoming pattern.
Technically, silver has also completed a base-building phase on the 4-hour chart. The market is gradually shifting from weak consolidation to a stronger rebound, moving in sync with gold. Further upside is expected, with a focus on whether the rebound continues during the session. Key resistance levels to watch are 72 and 74.