Several senior officials from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced their resignation intentions on Tuesday, triggering political upheaval and causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to surge 1% to 148.65. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama led the wave by announcing his departure, followed by Policy Research Council Chairman Itsunori Onodera and General Council Chairman Shunichi Suzuki who also declared their resignation intentions.
According to Tuesday reports, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's core ally, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, stated he would take responsibility for the defeat in July's upper house (House of Councillors) election, which resulted in the ruling coalition losing control of the upper chamber.
Following this resignation announcement, the yen weakened further against the dollar. Moriyama's departure would deal a significant blow to Ishiba, who is attempting to balance internal party dissatisfaction with rising public approval ratings.
The LDP completed its analysis report on the election defeat on Tuesday, attributing the loss to factors including unappealing inflation countermeasures, political scandals, and failure to attract young voters, without specifically naming Ishiba. Polling data shows that 128 out of 342 LDP lawmakers and local branch representatives support holding an early leadership contest.
According to party rules, if more than half of lawmakers and local representatives submit written requests, the LDP must hold an early leadership election. Local media reports suggest such a decision could be made as early as next Monday.
**Core Ally's Departure Intensifies Political Crisis**
Moriyama stated after Tuesday's LDP general meeting that he intended to resign to take responsibility for the electoral setback, though he left the final decision to Ishiba. The meeting discussed issues from the July election.
Regarding Moriyama's departure, Ishiba responded that he would make decisions about his own responsibilities at an appropriate time, hinting at considering resignation without specifying timing. Ishiba said that if the right timing comes, sooner rather than later would be better for the people. Meanwhile, Ishiba emphasized his responsibility to quickly implement necessary measures to address remaining issues, including economic policies to deal with tariffs.
As an important ally of Ishiba, Moriyama's departure intention represents a major blow to the Prime Minister. Ishiba is currently trying to maintain party unity while some party members express frustration with his leadership capabilities, even as his public approval ratings rise.
In Tuesday's speech, Ishiba apologized for the LDP's loss of numerous seats in the July election, stating he had no intention of clinging to power for its own sake, while emphasizing the need to advance economic policies and connect with the public.
**Election Failure Report Released, Does Not Name Ishiba**
The LDP finalized its analysis report on the upper house election defeat on Tuesday. According to a copy of the report, the LDP attributed the loss to the party organization itself but did not single out Ishiba as a defeat factor.
The report cited causes including the LDP's unappealing inflation countermeasures, previous political scandals, and failure to attract young voters. This report may influence some politicians' decisions on whether to continue supporting the Ishiba government or demand an early leadership contest before his term ends in 2027.
Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stated Monday in a television broadcast that he would "consider how to act after carefully examining the review results." Koizumi is viewed as a potential future prime ministerial candidate.
**Threshold for Early Leadership Change Remains Variable, Public Support Becomes Ishiba's Staying Power**
A poll of LDP lawmakers and local representatives published Sunday showed that 128 out of 342 people support holding an early leadership contest, with 33 explicitly opposed. About half of respondents remain undecided on their voting choice, making it unclear whether the LDP will push for an early leadership contest.
Some politicians have clearly expressed support for an early contest. LDP lawmaker Hiroaki Saito, currently serving as Deputy Finance Minister, wrote on social media platform X on Sunday: "If I'm asked to resign from my deputy minister position because I support holding an early leadership contest, then I will do so."
Despite internal LDP dissatisfaction with Ishiba, he still enjoys certain support from the broader public, with recent polls showing his approval ratings rising.
In late August, Ishiba's approval rating in a Kyodo News poll rose 12.5 percentage points from the previous month to 35.4%, while another media survey showed an increase of 17 percentage points to 39%, and another poll indicated a 4 percentage point rise to 33%.
The Kyodo News poll also showed that the percentage of respondents believing Ishiba should resign dropped 11.6 percentage points, with 57.5% believing he should continue in office compared to 40% who think he should step down.