A research report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the 2026 May Day holiday has concluded, with cultural, tourism, and transportation departments, as well as OTA platforms, successively releasing holiday consumption data. As a key window for observing Chinese consumption, the cultural and tourism market during the May Day holiday achieved moderate growth amid multiple influencing factors. The bank believes that against the backdrop of promoting service consumption, the resilience of cultural and tourism spending remains intact, as evidenced by the better-than-expected performance of hotel companies in Q1 2026. The current situation requires balancing certainty with reasonable growth prospects. The main views of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Domestic Travel: Moderate Overall Growth, High Order Increases for Deep Cultural and Leisure Attractions According to data from the Ministry of Transport, cross-regional passenger flow in the first four days of the holiday reached approximately 1.24 billion person-times, averaging 310 million per day, a year-on-year increase of about 3.1%, indicating steady growth in travel volume. The bank suggests that factors such as rainy weather in southern China, significantly higher airfare prices, and staggered travel periods affected the holiday travel data. Although per capita tourism spending figures from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism have not yet been released, data from already disclosed provinces suggests a trend of "volume increase with stable prices" for May Day travel. Regarding travel trends: 1) "Cultural depth" and "physical/mental relaxation" have become core experiential pillars: According to Ctrip data, orders for cultural attractions during the holiday increased by 64%, contributing nearly half of the incremental growth; comfortable leisure attractions emerged as the biggest "dark horse," with order volume surging 95%. 2) The combination of "spring break + May Day" boosted family travel demand: In 2026, some cities in Liaoning, Zhejiang, and Shandong implemented spring breaks for primary and secondary schools, creating an 8 to 11-day "super long golden week" when combined with the May Day holiday. Ctrip reports show that family tourists in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Liaoning provinces increased by over 20% year-on-year. 3) Effective synergy between tourism and events/performances: Ctrip data indicates that attendance at domestic exhibitions, performances, and sporting events during May Day grew 30.6% year-on-year, with activities like music festivals and sports events becoming new engines for attracting visitors to destinations.

Inbound and Outbound Travel: Inbound Tourism Shifts Towards Experiential Upgrades Based on earlier forecasts from the National Immigration Administration, average daily inbound and outbound passengers at ports across the country during the holiday were expected to reach 2.25 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3%, with the single-day peak potentially exceeding 2.4 million, setting a new high for the same period in recent years. Structurally, outbound travel was impacted by high airfare prices, while inbound consumption shifted comprehensively towards deep experiences. Ctrip platform data shows that inbound deep experience products (e.g., resort activities, tickets) grew 81% year-on-year. Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Hunan, Xinjiang, and Shanxi emerged as dark horse destinations for inbound tourism, with tourist growth rates all exceeding 60%.

Sector Performance: Moderate Growth in Hotel and Tourism Consumption Looking at sub-sectors, in the first two days of the May Day holiday, customs supervised a total of 209 million yuan in offshore duty-free shopping sales in Hainan, involving 34,000 shoppers, with per capita spending of 6,129 yuan. This represents year-on-year growth of 7.2%, 5.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to the same period in 2025. Focusing on hotel consumption, data from Hotel之家 shows that national hotel RevPAR increased 1.0% year-on-year in the first half of the holiday, with ADR rising 4.3% year-on-year, while OCC declined. Data from Qunar covering a longer period indicates that hotel bookings in popular cities increased by 15% for the three days surrounding the May Day holiday. The pattern is no longer a single peak of "opening on day 1, receding on day 5," but rather a stretched pattern with steady demand in the middle. Catering consumption also showed steady growth. In the first four days of the holiday, passenger flow and turnover in 78 pedestrian streets monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 5.0% and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively. Based on brand reservation data, Haidilao's backend data showed that as of April 27th, reservations for the first day of the holiday across its national stores had already exceeded 25,000 tables.

Risk warnings include: 1) Risk of macroeconomic growth slowdown; 2) Risk of consumer recovery falling short of expectations; 3) Risk of intensified market competition exceeding expectations; 4) Risk of new market development falling short of expectations.