Wall Street may soon witness a long-awaited wave of IPOs from private companies collectively valued at $2.9 trillion, as the floodgates appear ready to open.

SpaceX's IPO preparations could pave the way for other "centicorn" startups—privately held firms valued at over $100 billion—but raise a critical question: How willing will public market investors be to embrace companies with controversial leadership, minimal profitability, and valuations far exceeding any previous U.S. listings?

The answer seems clear: very willing.

Paul Abrahams, partner at 1789 Capital and former co-head of North American equity capital markets at Citigroup, noted, "The median market cap of S&P 500 companies is around $40 billion, but these firms operate on an entirely different scale. A company like SpaceX will undoubtedly attract massive institutional and retail demand as a must-own asset."

Since 2021, when U.S. IPOs raised a record $492 billion, the market has largely stagnated. Meanwhile, private valuations for firms like SpaceX, Stripe, and ByteDance have soared past most public peers—all while avoiding quarterly scrutiny.

Investors frustrated by limited access to these high-profile private firms, and banks missing out on lucrative IPO fees, are eager for change. If SpaceX goes public at its latest private valuation of $800 billion—or even the $1.5 trillion figure reportedly under consideration—it could trigger a broader shift.

Steve Stadnik, co-head of Americas equity capital markets at UBS, said, "Many believed these hyper-valued private firms didn’t need to IPO, or might never go public. Now, with a clear path emerging, it’s a major positive for followers."

Abrahams added that these companies are too large for acquisitions, making 2026 a likely inflection point: "We’ve said this for years, but next year there’s no more room for delay."

Bankers argue mega-IPOs are feasible with proper structuring, though some centicorns must still justify valuations. David Erickson, adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and former Barclays capital markets co-head, cautioned, "I’m not worried about market capacity if valuations hold up. But based on SpaceX or OpenAI’s revenue, claiming they’re worth $1 trillion seems questionable. Retail investors need convincing."

**The Public Market Spotlight** SpaceX presents a critical test case for both advocates of public listings and skeptics questioning whether such firms can withstand scrutiny.

Supporters highlight SpaceX’s innovations: first reusable rockets, sole U.S. commercial human spaceflight capability, a satellite broadband network serving 8 million users, and upcoming direct-to-cell services via EchoStar spectrum.

Yet going public could constrain capital-intensive projects like the Starship rocket—key to next-gen Starlink launches and Mars missions—by subjecting Elon Musk to shareholder pressure for short-term profits.

Carissa Christensen, CEO of BryceTech, noted, "SpaceX’s brand and culture stem from independence. Adapting to public market rules would be challenging."

Musk previously stated SpaceX wouldn’t IPO until Mars colonization was routine—a stance echoed by President Gwynne Shotwell in 2018. Even if plans change, a $1.5 trillion IPO (requiring $75 billion for a 5% float) would dwarf Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion 2019 listing, raising doubts about market appetite for Musk’s dual CEO roles at Tesla and xAI.

**The Return of Mega-IPOs** A mid-2026 SpaceX listing could bridge private/public valuation gaps via landmark deals too big for investors to ignore.

Rob Stowe, Barclays Americas ECM head, observed, "Large deals create their own momentum." Bloomberg data shows that excluding SPACs, U.S. IPO annual totals have trailed single $50 billion+ offerings in 8 of the past 13 years.

Missing a small IPO is negligible, Stowe noted, but skipping a $30-$50 billion deal that rallies would severely dent performance. Still, unprecedented scale remains a concern.

Colin Stewart, Morgan Stanley’s global tech M&A vice chair, said, "These will be landmark events. The challenge is ensuring market infrastructure can handle them."

**Alternative Paths** For cash-rich private giants, direct listings—where existing shares trade without new issuance—may appeal. Stewart noted, "No filings yet, but large firms will consider it. They’re already institution-heavy—just lack retail investors."

Coinbase’s 2021 direct listing remains the largest example, followed by Palantir and Roblox during COVID-era volatility.

For private equity managers, delivering returns is paramount. McKinsey’s January survey found limited partners now prioritize returns more than three years ago.

While some firms may IPO under pressure, others resist. Stewart often hears: "Why go public when private markets work?" His rebuttal: "What if funding dries up? Cycles turn fast—liquidity today doesn’t guarantee tomorrow."

"Eventually," he added, "selling shares at ever-higher valuations becomes impossible. Better to let public markets decide."