Citigroup has released a research report indicating that China Coal Energy (01898) reported a first-quarter commercial coal output of 30.17 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.18 million tonnes compared to the same period last year. This decline was primarily due to changes in mining faces and altered geological conditions at certain coal mines. Management expects commercial coal production to exceed 131 million tonnes in 2026, which is lower than the actual output of 135 million tonnes in 2025. This forecast already accounts for the disruptions experienced in the first quarter of this year, with production anticipated to gradually improve in the coming quarters. The bank has revised its target price for the stock downward from HK$18.2 to HK$16.6, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Based on the latest guidance from management and the full-year 2025 and first-quarter 2026 results, Citigroup has adjusted its profit forecasts for China Coal Energy, reducing the 2026 estimate by 5% and raising the 2027 estimate by 2%, resulting in projected profits of RMB 17.6 billion and RMB 16.2 billion, respectively. Additionally, the bank introduced a 2028 profit forecast of RMB 16.8 billion.