Abstract

Lincoln National will report its latest quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes recent performance, expected revenue and earnings trends, margin dynamics, and the balance of institutional opinions heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations point to Lincoln National delivering revenue of $4.84 billion this quarter, with adjusted EPS estimated at $1.90 and EBIT around $0.37 billion; the year-over-year outlook embeds revenue growth of 3.29% and adjusted EPS growth of 8.53%. Margin forecasts remain measured, with limited visibility; however, investors are watching gross profit margin and net profit margin progression relative to last quarter’s baselines. The company’s core engines across Group Protection, Annuities, and Life Insurance are expected to remain the central revenue pillars, with stable to modestly improving trends anticipated in spread and fee income. The most promising segment in the near term is Group Protection, which generated $1.50 billion last quarter and is positioned for steady demand and improving pricing, though year-over-year comparisons were not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Lincoln National’s last quarter delivered revenue of $4.56 billion, a gross profit margin of 6.53%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.45 billion, a net profit margin of 9.69%, and adjusted EPS of $2.04; adjusted EPS increased by 9.85% versus consensus but year-over-year growth was -0.97%. One notable highlight was the net profit quarter-on-quarter change, which contracted by 36.34%, reminding investors that earnings volatility remains a feature as mix and market-sensitive items move around. By business line, revenue was led by Group Protection at $1.50 billion, Annuities at $1.36 billion, and Life Insurance at $1.35 billion, with Retirement Plan Services contributing $0.34 billion; year-over-year segment growth rates were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory

Management’s revenue cadence indicates that the diversified protection and retirement model continues to anchor quarterly results. With a forecast revenue of $4.84 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.90, the near-term emphasis is on maintaining pricing discipline in Group Protection while navigating capital-market sensitivity in Annuities and Life Insurance. The company’s baselines from last quarter—gross profit margin of 6.53% and net profit margin of 9.69%—offer a reference point for margin tracking, though seasonal and market factors can drive variability. Given that adjusted EPS is projected to grow 8.53% year over year, while revenue rises 3.29%, the setup suggests operating leverage from cost controls and mix, tempered by potential volatility in benefit ratios and investment yields.

Group Protection as the revenue stabilizer

Group Protection at $1.50 billion last quarter remains the largest single contributor, benefiting from stable employer demand for benefits and improving pricing across disability and life coverage. The business typically exhibits lower capital-market sensitivity than spread-based lines, which can support more predictable revenue and claims dynamics into the current quarter. With employment levels and wage growth normalizing, new case sales and in-force premium growth should support revenue retention. The key watch item is claims severity and frequency; any normalization higher in disability incidence would pressure margins, while favorable experience and rate adequacy could help preserve underwriting margins. Given the projected consolidated revenue growth, Group Protection’s steady contribution positions it as a stabilizer for top-line performance.

Annuities and Life Insurance margin sensitivity

Annuities at $1.36 billion and Life Insurance at $1.35 billion last quarter illustrate the substantial share of spread and fee-based revenue in the portfolio. These lines are sensitive to rate curves, equity markets, and hedging outcomes, which can affect both revenue recognition and margins. Into this quarter, the industry backdrop suggests stable to slightly tighter spreads as reinvestment rates meet hedging costs and crediting strategies, while equity market levels influence variable and indexed annuity fees. With adjusted EPS expected at $1.90, the implication is that operating income remains solid, but investors should remain mindful of basis risk in hedging programs and potential variability in DAC and reserve assumptions. Any favorable equity performance and benign credit environment would provide a tailwind to fee income and realized results, while rate volatility could introduce noise.

Retirement Plan Services and fee income

Retirement Plan Services contributed $0.34 billion last quarter and serves as a fee-income complement to spread businesses. Plan asset levels are influenced by markets and participant behavior, which can translate into fee variability. If equity markets remain supportive and participant inflows are stable, this unit can offer incremental revenue lift without commensurate capital strain. The contribution is smaller than the core segments but can amplify operating leverage, supporting the forecast for adjusted EPS growth outpacing revenue growth. Monitoring flows, plan conversions, and retention dynamics provides context for fee-rate stability.

Capital and earnings volatility considerations

The prior quarter’s 36.34% quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit underscores the potential for earnings swings. Into this quarter, investors will closely parse the relationship between gross margin and benefit ratios, as well as the impact of market movements on spread income and hedging. Operating conditions appear supportive enough for a 3.29% revenue increase and solid EPS delivery, but execution on pricing, crediting rates, and claims management remains critical. Any deviation in capital-market conditions could have an outsized effect on GAAP margins and adjusted results, making guidance commentary and updated margin frameworks focal points.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst sentiment tilts cautiously positive heading into the release, with most previews expecting in-line to modestly better results anchored by Group Protection stability and contained claims costs. Several institutional views highlight that revenue growth of 3.29% and adjusted EPS of $1.90 suggest incremental improvement versus the prior-year quarter, while acknowledging continued sensitivity to markets in annuity and life operations. The majority stance emphasizes monitoring benefit ratios in Group Protection and spread dynamics in Annuities, with the expectation that disciplined pricing and stable credit conditions can support margins. Among notable voices, large sell-side research desks point to the importance of capital deployment discipline and the trajectory of adjusted return metrics to sustain multiple support. Overall, the prevailing view anticipates a clean quarter on revenues with a balanced risk-reward on EPS execution, leaning toward a cautiously positive interpretation if margin commentary confirms stability.