【Market Overview】Today, both stock markets are experiencing significant volume reductions, indicating a considerable amount of cautious capital on the sidelines, making it difficult to see any momentum under such an atmosphere. The uncertainty caused by various external events is the primary reason. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.09%. In the U.S., Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hinted that the U.S. might extend the suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods to encourage China to delay implementing its rare earth export control plan. This seems disconnected and convoluted, unnecessarily complicating the landscape; rare earths are tied to chips, making tariffs unrealistic as bargaining chips. The latest tactic involves encouraging allies to take action. On October 15, the UK government announced sanctions against several entities and individuals from certain nations, including 11 Chinese entities, citing support for Russian energy firms and assistance to Russia's military industry. A spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in the UK responded by urging the UK to correct its mistakes and revoke sanctions against the relevant Chinese entities, stating that any actions damaging China's interests would face strong rebuttals. Moreover, regarding the Netherlands, the Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. is the instigator of harmful penetration rules against Chinese companies and hopes the Dutch side will uphold independence, with China prepared to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. Traditionally, we act with courtesy before resorting to force; having issued warnings, any continued obstinacy will result in further actions.
Spot gold surged past \$4,220 per ounce in early trading on Thursday, marking a new high for four consecutive trading days, accumulating a \$200 increase this week. However, most gold stocks did not follow suit, likely due to issues with the broader environment. One exception is ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259), which rose nearly 4% due to being added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect securities list under the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective October 16, indicating a favorable share structure and the involvement of southbound capital.
China reported that new social financing in September reached 3.53 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans at 1.29 trillion yuan and new RMB deposits at 2.21 trillion yuan. The M2-M1 spread hit a yearly low, reflecting that more funds are being kept in demand deposits rather than time deposits. However, the pace of residents shifting deposits has slowed down. The underlying truth is that the non-bank rising sector does not correspond to residents entering the market; instead, the expansion of interbank liabilities by banks is the main reason. In other words, residents' deposits are moving from banks into wealth management or insurance savings products. Consequently, insurance stocks have shown strong performance recently, with CHINA LIFE (02628) and CPIC (02601) both rising 4%.
Yesterday, we mentioned that the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting will be held in Berlin, Germany, from October 17 to 21, 2025. As a leading event in oncology, this meeting is expected to showcase several significant clinical research results, with major oral presentations from domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies anticipated to attract market attention. Funds have already started to position themselves in advance. Additionally, the largest innovative pharmaceutical ETF in the Hong Kong market (513120) surged over 3% in intraday trading, with a half-day turnover exceeding 5 billion yuan, and as of October 15, its latest scale surpassed 22.97 billion yuan, making it the largest and most actively traded innovative pharmaceutical-themed fund in the market. The previously mentioned HENLIUS (02696), AKESO (09926), and REMEGEN (09995) all experienced increases exceeding 4%.
The so-called "Three Consumer Swords" have delivered impressive performance recently. Besides the already rising MIXUE GROUP (02097), the other two have also shown robust performance. After LABUBU production capacity increased tenfold, it remains wildly popular, with the new IP "Star Human" quickly emerging and expected to contribute around 8% to sales. Future catalysts include the third-quarter operational data to be released at the end of October, along with the robust sales expected during Halloween and Christmas. Today, it rose over 5%. Meanwhile, LAOPU GOLD (06181) is riding on the recovery of European luxury goods, with the gold luxury segment projected to follow suit. The company is accelerating its expansion, with its newly opened 400-square-meter boutique in the Hong Kong International Financial Centre generating robust business, rising over 6% today.
Recently, aviation stocks have been strong. Besides various underlying reasons, the data is also promising. China Eastern Airlines (00670) announced that its passenger capacity input for September 2025 (measured in available seat kilometers) increased by 3.63% year-on-year, while passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) rose by 8.67%, achieving a load factor of 87.57%—up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year. The cargo and mail turnover (measured in freight ton kilometers) increased by 10.95% year-on-year in September 2025. Additionally, many new routes have been opened. Today, it rose over 3%.
Starting from October 14, 2025, China's countermeasures against the increased port service fees will significantly affect global shipping supply chains. Some giants have begun to adjust their strategies, reducing the number of ships heading to the U.S. to cut related costs. Overall, following supply chain disruptions, shipping rates are expected to rise further. COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919), COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138), and OOIL (00316) have all increased more than 3%.
On October 14, 2025, China experienced the strongest cold air mass of the second half of the year, with temperatures in North China and Northeast China dropping over 10 degrees Celsius, prompting many northern areas to start their heating season ahead of schedule. This directly pushes the demand for thermal coal into a seasonal peak, with coastal power plants consuming 8%-12% more coal daily, and some regions' inventory days dropping below the warning line of 15 days. Taking Qinhuangdao Port as an example, the price of Q5500 thermal coal soared from 677 yuan/ton at the end of September to 730 yuan/ton on October 16, marking a weekly increase of 7.8%. Both 中煤能源 (06181), MONGOLMINING (00975), and SHOUGANG RES (00639) have increased over 4%.
SANHUA (02050) announced last night that they have recently noticed numerous rumors on internet media regarding the company receiving large orders for robots. After verification, the rumors are not true. The company does not have any significant matters that should have been disclosed but were not. Today, the stock dropped over 6%. It seems that an industrial chain has formed, specifically created by prominent individuals to disseminate such information, increasing its credibility and making it easily retrievable; investors should be cautious about such small posts in the future.
【Sector Focus】The General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has organized the "Millisecond Computing" special initiative, focusing on the development of computing power networks. The goal is to create a high-capacity, low-latency, and widely covered metropolitan network that provides millisecond-level computing resources. This means achieving millisecond interconnection (<1 millisecond) for computing power centers concerning infrastructure, millisecond access (<1 millisecond) for computing resources concerning key areas, and millisecond accessibility (<10 milliseconds) for applications concerning terminal operations. This special initiative is expected to benefit computing power operators such as CHINA MOBILE (00941), CHINA TELECOM (00728), and CHINA UNICOM (00762); followed by network equipment upgrade suppliers like ZTE (00763), CHINA TOWER (00788), and YOFC (06869).
【Stock Selection】GCL-Poly Energy (03800): Achieving mass production of GW-level perovskite production lines with gradually rising market share. Recently, the main polycrystalline silicon futures contract 2511 has increased for the third consecutive day. According to recent reports, relevant authorities may soon issue a document to strengthen the regulation of photovoltaic production capacity. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.84% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -1.776 billion yuan, with losses widening.
Commentary: Since September, prices across the photovoltaic industry chain have continued to rise, with prices for polycrystalline silicon, wafers, cells, and photovoltaic modules increasing; however, the price increases for upstream materials have outpaced those downstream. The company's average cash production cost for granulated silicon in the first half of 2025 (excluding tax) was 26.222 yuan/kg, with 25.31 yuan/kg in the second quarter, continuing with the previous trend of cost reductions each quarter. The market share is steadily rising. In the first half of 2025, the top five customers by shipment volume for the company's granulated silicon accounted for 23%/21%/11%/8%/7%, maintaining a relatively stable structure. With improvements in product quality and stability for granulated silicon, the market share has shown a steady upward trend, reaching 24.3% in the first half of 2025—an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the second half of 2024. Furthermore, the quality of granulated silicon products is continuously improving, with total metal impurity content from the five elements remaining stable at around 95%, and the turbidity has generally reached below 100 NTU. The overall yield level is comparable with that of mass production of rod silicon at that time. The GW-level perovskite production line has achieved mass production, accelerating the industrialization process. In June 2025, GCL-Poly's GW-level perovskite industrial base officially commenced production, with large-size stacked perovskite components obtaining TÛV Rheinland’s IEC61730 certification and passing TÛV Rheinland’s threefold IEC stability test. The competitiveness of the company's granulated silicon products is gradually becoming evident, and their technologies, including silane gas, perovskite, and electronic-grade polysilicon, are expected to contribute to new growth opportunities.