The landscape of the nuclear energy sector is undergoing significant changes.

The World Nuclear Association stated in its latest report that due to the substantial expansion of global nuclear power capacity, uranium demand from nuclear reactors worldwide will increase by one-third to 86,000 tons by 2030, reaching 150,000 tons by 2040. Morgan Stanley analysts note that the global uranium market is currently experiencing significant changes, with evolving supply-demand dynamics and multiple factors making uranium's market outlook highly noteworthy.

Affected by supply-demand imbalances, uranium spot prices have surged from $30 per pound in 2020, even briefly breaking through $100 per pound at one point, and currently maintain trading levels around $80 per pound. Against this backdrop, Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) under Canada's Sprott company is aggressively "accumulating" globally, having previously raised $200 million through additional offerings to purchase physical uranium. Citi points out that potential delivery shortfalls from uranium producers, combined with growing energy demand that incentivizes increased nuclear capacity, creates substantial upward risk for uranium prices.

**Significant Gap in Uranium Mining**

On September 5, the World Nuclear Association pointed out in its latest report that uranium demand from global nuclear reactors will increase by one-third to 86,000 tons by 2030, reaching 150,000 tons by 2040. However, on the supply side, some existing uranium mines will reach depletion between 2030-2040, leading to a 50% reduction in global uranium production and creating a "significant" supply-demand gap that could threaten the nuclear renaissance.

The World Nuclear Association states that global nuclear power capacity will double by 2040, reaching 746 gigawatts.

At the World Nuclear Association's annual summit, uranium mining companies indicated that addressing the supply-demand gap is extremely challenging. Industry leaders, including Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom and Canada's Cameco, have even recently announced production cuts at their uranium mines.

Mark Chalmers, President of U.S. uranium company Energy Fuels, stated he expects more peers to announce production cuts as existing aging uranium mines approach depletion and capacity drops significantly.

Reportedly, the time from uranium mine discovery to production can take 10-20 years. Therefore, the World Nuclear Association calls for "increased exploration efforts, innovative mining technologies, improved licensing efficiency, and timely investment."

The World Nuclear Association also noted that merely increasing uranium mining capacity is insufficient, as primary uranium requires complex refining processes to become nuclear fuel, so uranium processing facilities must also keep pace with production expansion.

On the demand side, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, many European countries sought to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas through nuclear power. Simultaneously, due to the explosive growth of global data centers, relatively clean and high-output nuclear energy is viewed as an indispensable part of the AI race.

According to Goldman Sachs calculations, AI computing power and data center demand drive global electricity consumption growth to 2.5%, far exceeding the average growth rate of the past decade. Combined with factors such as electric vehicle adoption, the global baseload power gap is expected to reach 83,000 terawatt-hours by 2030.

To address this, governments worldwide plan to increase investment in nuclear power plants. At the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), 31 countries committed to tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050.

Russia has historically been the world's uranium refining center. Jacques Peythieu, Senior Executive Vice President of French uranium company Orano, stated that the West won't achieve self-sufficiency in uranium refining until after 2030. He also revealed that Orano is already expanding refining facilities, with planned capacity for 2028 production already fully purchased by customers.

**Major Players Aggressively Accumulating**

Notably, Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) under Canada's Sprott company is aggressively "accumulating" globally, having previously raised $200 million through additional offerings to purchase physical uranium, further driving up spot demand.

Goldman Sachs points out that the current global uranium supply system faces severe challenges. On one hand, many existing mines have operated for over 30 years with increasingly depleted resources; on the other hand, multiple new projects have lengthy production cycles, such as NexGen Energy's Rook I mine, which is expected to require 6-8 years before production, unable to meet growing demand.

Morgan Stanley issued a research report indicating that the global uranium market is currently experiencing significant changes, with evolving supply-demand dynamics and multiple factors making uranium's market outlook highly noteworthy. Against a backdrop of tightening supply and strong demand, the price outlook is optimistic.

Uranium prices are showing an upward trend amid volatility, with uranium spot prices surging from $30 per pound in 2020, even briefly breaking through $100 per pound, currently maintaining trading levels around $80 per pound.

In June this year, a new sales agreement signed between trading company CGN Mining, CGN Plutonium Industries, and CGN Finance showed that the new natural uranium contract benchmark price was significantly raised from the previous $61.78 per pound to $94.22 per pound, an increase of over 50%.

Looking ahead at uranium price prospects, Morgan Stanley expects uranium prices to rise to $87 per pound in Q4 2025. Intensifying supply challenges, stable spot demand, rising potential contract volumes, plus structural support from the "nuclear renaissance" make uranium market fundamentals solid with further upward price potential.

Citi stated in its latest report that uranium prices could rise to $100 per pound by 2026. Analyst Arkady Gevorkyan stated: "Over the past five months, long-term contract prices have been trading at the $80 per pound level, which we believe supports our bullish view."

Citi believes that potential delivery shortfalls from uranium producers, combined with growing energy demand that incentivizes increased nuclear capacity, create substantial upward risk for uranium prices. Additionally, the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) plays a significant role, with these reactors potentially accounting for 20% of total uranium demand by 2040.