Abstract

NovaCure will release its Q4 2025 results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, and this preview consolidates recent financial data and forecasts to frame expectations for revenue, margins, GAAP and adjusted EPS, plus a synthesis of institutional perspectives.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to NovoCure’s current-quarter revenue at $173.35 million, implying year-over-year growth of 9.85%, with EBIT forecast at negative $43.15 million and EPS at negative $0.41; the year-over-year change implied by the forecast for EPS is a 19.65% decline, while the EBIT forecast suggests a 4.30% decline. Model assumptions indicate gross profit margin tracking near the company’s recent level, and net profit remaining negative; adjusted EPS is expected to be below break-even on a year-over-year basis. The company’s main business remains the Tumor Treating Fields therapy portfolio, where the outlook centers on patient adoption trends, reimbursement execution, and geographic expansion; the most promising segment continues to be incremental growth from newly launched indications and territories within TTFields, with revenue momentum backed by mid-single to high-single digit YoY growth from the base.

Last Quarter Review

NovoCure’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $167.20 million, a gross profit margin of 73.25%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company at negative $37.27 million, a net profit margin of negative 22.29%, and adjusted EPS of negative $0.33; year-over-year, revenue rose 7.81%, while adjusted EPS improved versus estimates and narrowed its YoY decline to 17.86%. One notable highlight was the positive surprise versus consensus across revenue and earnings, with revenue exceeding estimates by $8.01 million and EPS outperforming by $0.09, driven by steadier device utilization and firm reimbursement execution. Main business revenue was concentrated in TTFields therapies across core oncology indications; growth was characterized by mid-to-high single-digit YoY expansion from established markets and incremental contribution from newer geographies.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory

The Tumor Treating Fields therapy portfolio remains the backbone of NovoCure’s revenue. For the quarter into February 26, 2026, key variables include patient starts, adherence, and duration of therapy, which directly influence recognized revenue. Reimbursement continuity in the United States and Europe has supported revenue resilience, and the company’s prior-quarter gross margin of 73.25% provides a buffer for profitability metrics even as operating expenses weigh on EBIT. Quarter-over-quarter growth drivers will likely hinge on incremental adoption within existing indications, the stability of prescribing patterns among oncology centers, and the company’s ability to maintain supply chain efficiency and service levels. Any acceleration in patient onboarding could support revenue above the $173.35 million forecast, but operating leverage may remain constrained until absolute volumes grow further.

Most promising growth element

Within TTFields, the most promising growth element is expanding usage in approved indications and newly opened territories, which has historically delivered steady mid-single to high-single digit YoY revenue expansion. A meaningful uplift depends on broadening clinical adoption, guideline integration, and continued payer support. If expansion into additional care settings sustains, revenue growth could align with or slightly exceed the forecasted 9.85% YoY, aided by continuous onboarding of patients and better retention. However, with EBIT forecast at negative $43.15 million and EPS at negative $0.41, the path to profitability will rely on scaling volumes faster than operating expenditure growth, a dynamic management has aimed to improve through prioritized investments and cost discipline.

Stock-price drivers this quarter

Investors are likely to focus on the spread between actual revenue and the $173.35 million forecast, as even small deviations can re-rate expectations given the company’s negative EBIT guidance. Margin signals—particularly whether gross profit margin can hold near the 73% level—will be scrutinized as a proxy for pricing and cost control. Net profit margin direction matters: last quarter’s negative 22.29% underscores operating pressure, and any improvement, even modest, could be viewed constructively. Guidance language on patient pipeline, payer interactions, and the cadence of new market entries may exert outsized influence on sentiment. Finally, adjusted EPS progression relative to the negative $0.41 estimate will weigh on near-term price action; a narrower loss can support stability, while a wider loss may reinforce cautious positioning.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, views skew balanced-to-cautious rather than outright bullish. A recent rating action from Wedbush reiterated Hold with a price target of $18.00, indicating a wait-and-see posture as the market gauges whether the forecasted 9.85% revenue growth can translate into improving operating metrics. The majority tone among cited institutions hews to neutral, reflecting an expectation for incremental revenue growth amid persistent operating losses, and the emphasis is on execution milestones—patient additions, reimbursement durability, and geographic expansion—to reassess the path to profitability. In-depth, the Hold stance highlights the tension between stable top-line trends and negative EBIT guidance at negative $43.15 million, with analysts wanting clearer visibility on operating leverage and the timing of EPS breakeven relative to the current forecast of negative $0.41.