Abstract

Axa Equitable Holdings will report its quarterly results on February 04, 2026 Post Market; investors are watching revenue normalization, margin stabilization after recent volatility, and whether adjusted EPS can track guidance amid capital markets swings.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-guided projections indicate this quarter’s revenue is expected at $4.02 billion with an estimated year-over-year change of -0.56%, EBIT at $0.76 billion with an estimated year-over-year decline of 11.31%, and adjusted EPS at $1.76 with an estimated year-over-year increase of 8.94%. Management’s revenue and earnings trajectory suggests steadier fee income and investment spreads could support a modest sequential improvement in adjusted EPS despite softer top-line, while margins are expected to reflect disciplined expense control rather than broad-based expansion.

The main business outlook centers on fee-based earnings from investment management and policy charges, with spread income sensitive to rate levels and market performance; revenue mix is expected to remain tilted toward fee and net investment income, while market-driven items should remain volatile. The segment with the most promising contribution remains investment management and service fees, which previously delivered $1.32 billion and is positioned to grow on higher average AUM if equity markets hold gains; ongoing net flows and product mix will be decisive for year-over-year performance.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, Axa Equitable Holdings recorded revenue of $2.63 billion, a gross profit margin of -58.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$1.31 billion, a net profit margin of -90.53%, and adjusted EPS of $1.48, with year-over-year adjusted EPS declining by 3.27%.

A notable highlight was the sharp drag from market-sensitive items, including derivative and investment mark-to-market impacts, which weighed on GAAP profitability while core adjusted metrics held up comparatively better. Main business contributions were led by net investment income of $1.34 billion and investment management and service fees of $1.32 billion, while policy fees contributed $0.47 billion and premiums $0.26 billion; derivatives and investment losses of -$1.12 billion and -$1.17 billion respectively underscored earnings volatility.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core fee and protection businesses

The core fee-based franchise—anchored in investment management and policy fees—should continue to provide an earnings base that is less volatile than market-driven items. With estimated revenue at $4.02 billion and EPS at $1.76, assumptions imply resilient fee capture on higher average AUM and stable policy charges, though operating leverage is constrained by expense inflation. The spread business remains sensitive to rate dynamics; if long-end yields stabilize, reinvestment spreads can offset crediting rate resets, supporting EBIT. Investors should track net flows in equities and multi-asset products, which directly affect fee revenue run-rate; product mix skew toward higher-fee strategies could modestly lift margins even if gross revenue is flat.

Investment management and service fees as the growth lever

Investment management and service fees, previously at $1.32 billion, represent the most promising growth driver as higher equity markets boost average AUM and performance fees where applicable. Year-over-year momentum will depend on the balance of market appreciation versus any client de-risking; the forecast framework implies that EPS can expand even on slightly lower total revenue if fee yields and cost discipline hold. The scalability of the platform means incremental revenue from AUM growth can disproportionately benefit margins, offering a path for adjusted EPS growth, provided that net inflows remain positive and distribution channels sustain sales productivity.

Market-sensitive items and valuation impacts

The largest swing factor this quarter is the mark-to-market of derivative hedges and investment portfolios, which recently produced sizable GAAP volatility and depressed reported margins. If equity markets and rates trade within narrower ranges than last quarter, hedge costs and valuation noise could recede, reducing the gap between GAAP and adjusted outcomes. Conversely, sharp moves in rates or credit spreads could again trigger non-cash losses that weigh on reported net income, sentiment, and the stock’s near-term reaction, even if underlying adjusted EPS meets estimates. Investors will also parse reserve and assumption updates, particularly around lapse and mortality trends, which can influence both capital generation and reported earnings.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary tilts cautiously positive, with a majority expecting adjusted EPS to meet or slightly exceed the $1.76 estimate while acknowledging revenue and EBIT headwinds tied to market normalization and hedge costs. Supportive views highlight the company’s fee-based earnings durability, capital flexibility, and scope for gradual margin repair as volatility subsides; skeptics focus on the sensitivity to market swings and the potential for derivative marks to cloud GAAP optics. The prevailing view is constructive on adjusted results and capital return capacity, noting that a stable rate backdrop and healthy equity markets could allow fee income to sustain the EPS uptrend even if reported revenue is flat to slightly down year-over-year.