Space-Based Solar Equipment Value Poised for Exponential Growth, Leading Firms Recommended

Stock News
8 hours ago

CITIC SEC has released a research report suggesting that Elon Musk's investment in photovoltaic manufacturing is paving the way for orbital computing power and AI energy supply. Leading Chinese PV equipment manufacturers possess strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, positioning them to potentially enter the supply chains of companies like Tesla and SpaceX, secure substantial orders, and unlock new growth avenues. Furthermore, space-based solar equipment may exhibit significant "inflation" effects, with its value potentially undergoing a leap-like increase. The report highlights a key recommendation for leading PV equipment companies. CITIC SEC's main viewpoints are as follows: SpaceX is targeting orbital computing power, suggesting that demand for space-based solar may far exceed expectations. Spearheading commercial space development, SpaceX is accelerating its Starlink deployment and satellite upgrades, has applied to deploy millions of satellites, and is formally entering the space data center market. Space-based solar power is currently the sole energy source for satellites and orbital computing, and its demand growth rate and market size are expected to experience exponential expansion. Under a conservative scenario, estimates suggest global demand for space-based solar could reach over 1GW by 2030, with a market size exceeding 80 billion yuan. In an optimistic scenario, demand could reach 70GW with a market size approaching 3 trillion yuan by 2030. It is projected that over the next five years, the market for space-grade P-type HJT and perovskite solar cells could grow by factors of a hundred or even a thousand. Elon Musk's bet on PV manufacturing presents a major opportunity for leading equipment makers. Musk indicated at the 2026 Davos Forum that Tesla and SpaceX might each plan to build 100GW of upstream and downstream PV manufacturing capacity in the coming years, based on terrestrial power needs and space-based solar requirements, respectively. It is anticipated that Tesla will primarily adopt TOPCon technology, while SpaceX may select a P-type HJT technology route. Leading Chinese PV equipment manufacturers hold distinct advantages in efficient iteration and rapid response, aligning well with the high standards and stringent requirements of Tesla and SpaceX for suppliers. Top companies across various segments of the supply chain are expected to capture significant shares, potentially even dominating, further opening vast growth opportunities spanning from terrestrial to space applications. The growth potential for leading PV equipment companies is expanding, with equipment value expected to rise significantly. Beyond SpaceX's clear plans for its own PV capacity, other domestic and international manufacturers are also likely to accelerate their capacity planning. As orbital computing develops faster and perovskite tandem cell technology matures, demand for equipment upgrades will continue to be released, potentially unlocking a long-term market on the scale of hundreds of GW per year. Simultaneously, space-based solar technology entails significantly higher process difficulty, customization, equipment standards, and required configuration redundancy due to lower production efficiency compared to traditional PV, which could lead to a substantial increase in the value of related equipment. The market space for space-based solar equipment may also exceed expectations. Risk factors include satellite launch schedules falling short of expectations; delays in the PV capacity expansion plans of Tesla and SpaceX; uncertainty regarding order fulfillment for domestic equipment manufacturers; slower-than-expected development of standard systems and certification processes; and uncertainties surrounding orbital computing power plans.

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