Abstract

Antero Resources will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes recent operating trends, forecasts for revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS, and gauges institutional sentiment to frame the likely range of outcomes and key watch items for investors.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to Antero Resources delivering revenue of $1.31 billion for the current quarter, up 11.31% year over year, with forecast EPS of $0.50 and EBIT of $220.50 million; the modeled trajectory implies margin stabilization with attention on gross profit margin and net profit margin alongside EPS growth of 63.41% year over year. The main business outlook centers on upstream production and realized pricing from natural gas and NGLs, with operational discipline guiding costs and hedging moderating cash flow volatility. The most promising segment is Liquids/NGLs, a key revenue engine within the portfolio, supported by ethane and propane demand dynamics in petrochemicals.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Antero Resources posted revenue of $1.21 billion, a gross profit margin of 64.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $76.18 million with a net profit margin of 6.52%, and adjusted EPS of $0.15, with year-over-year revenue growth of 15.72%. A notable development was quarter-on-quarter compression in bottom line as indicated by a 51.35% decline in net profit quarter over quarter, despite resilient gross profitability. Main business contributions were led by Natural Gas at $630.89 million and Liquids/NGLs at $470.39 million, complemented by smaller contributions from marketing and derivative fair value movements.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Natural Gas and Core Upstream Operations

Core upstream operations remain the backbone of Antero Resources’ financial profile, with natural gas revenue historically accounting for a material share of sales. The upcoming print will likely reflect the interplay between production volumes in the Marcellus/Utica and realized natural gas prices after basis differentials and transportation. While strip prices have improved from recent troughs, unit economics still hinge on completion cadence, well productivity, and operating cost containment, which support the company’s ability to protect gross profit margin even if price volatility persists. The quarter’s EBIT estimate of $220.50 million and EPS estimate of $0.50 suggest the market expects efficient flowback and steady LOE and gathering costs, keeping net profit margin aligned with mid-cycle assumptions. Hedges and basis management should continue to smooth cash flows, but any deviation in winter demand patterns or pipeline constraints could shift realized pricing and compress EPS versus forecasts.

Liquids/NGLs as the Growth Lever

Liquids/NGLs is positioned as the most promising near-term growth lever, given higher value barrels and exposure to petrochemical feedstock demand. The prior quarter’s Liquids/NGLs revenue contribution of $470.39 million demonstrates the significance of ethane, propane, and butane realizations to overall revenue mix. In the current quarter, the forecast revenue uplift of 11.31% year over year implicitly bakes in healthy NGL realizations and steady export pull through, particularly if fractionation spreads and international propane pricing remain constructive. Operationally, liquids-rich acreage delivers favorable condensate and NGL yields, supporting margin resilience; however, the segment remains sensitive to fractionation capacity, takeaway costs, and global LPG price swings, which can widen or narrow netbacks quickly. Monitoring product mix and realized price differentials will be crucial to gauge whether Liquids/NGLs can outpace natural gas in driving consolidated margin expansion.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Price performance into and after results will be most sensitive to realized pricing, updated full-year volume guidance, and commentary on capital allocation. If management signals a disciplined capital program with stable or improving well productivity, investors may ascribe a higher multiple to cash flow visibility, especially with EBIT and EPS tracking above last year’s run-rate. Conversely, a miss on EPS relative to the $0.50 estimate owing to weaker-than-expected winter demand, lower liquids pricing, or incremental basis pressure could trigger a short-term reset. Investors will also parse any updates on hedging posture and marketing margins, particularly given the prior quarter’s sizable gross profit margin of 64.42%, to assess sustainability into the shoulder season. Guidance on transportation commitments and gathering costs can tip the outlook for net profit margin, while any signals on debt trajectory, liquidity, or share repurchase flexibility may influence sentiment as cash generation strengthens with commodity prices.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary skews bullish. Notable positive stances include Buy ratings from Citi and TD Cowen, as well as supportive views from UBS and Siebert Williams Shank, contrasted by Hold ratings from Benchmark. Aggregating these indicates a majority bullish tilt. Citi highlighted valuation support and earnings leverage to improving NGL realizations, while TD Cowen emphasized operational execution and strategic positioning as catalysts for earnings improvement through 2026. UBS reiterated a constructive long-term outlook tied to liquids-rich inventory depth and efficiency gains, and Siebert Williams Shank underscored upside potential as free cash flow improves with commodity normalization. The majority view expects the company to meet or slightly exceed revenue and EPS forecasts for the quarter, with the key debate concentrated on the trajectory of liquids pricing and the degree of net margin capture relative to the recent 64.42% gross profit margin baseline. A delivery aligned with the $1.31 billion revenue and $0.50 EPS estimates, coupled with steady production and prudent capital discipline, would likely validate the bullish narrative and support multiple resilience into the next catalyst window.