Title

Earning Preview: Celestica Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 37.35%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Celestica will release its quarterly results Post Market on Wednesday, January 28, 2026; this preview compiles consensus estimates for revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS, and frames the key segment dynamics and watch items that could influence the share price into and after the print.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest aggregated estimates for the current quarter, the market expects Celestica to deliver revenue of USD 3.48 billion, up 37.35% year over year, EBIT of USD 264.87 million, up 56.60% year over year, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.76, up 65.79% year over year. While formal margin guidance for the quarter is not specified in the dataset, the magnitude of the expected revenue and earnings expansion implies continued operational leverage versus last year’s baseline. Connectivity & Cloud Solutions remains the core revenue engine and is expected to maintain momentum given the prior quarter’s scale and mix, with management execution on program ramps and delivery schedules likely to shape gross profit conversion this quarter. The largest growth potential is concentrated where revenue scale is already substantial: Connectivity & Cloud Solutions generated USD 2.41 billion last quarter, and while the dataset does not disclose segment-level year-over-year growth, its contribution rate suggests that changes in this segment’s volume and mix will have an outsized impact on the quarter’s outcome.

Last Quarter Review

Celestica’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 3.19 billion, up 27.79% year over year, a gross profit margin of 13.03%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 268.00 million, a net profit margin of 8.38%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.58, up 51.92% year over year. A key financial highlight was the sequential profitability improvement: GAAP net profit increased 26.92% quarter over quarter, underscoring improved operating leverage relative to the immediately preceding quarter. By segment, Connectivity & Cloud Solutions contributed USD 2.41 billion, or 75.55% of total revenue, and Advanced Technology Solutions contributed USD 781.00 million, or 24.45%, with total revenue growing 27.79% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Revenue Engine: Connectivity & Cloud Solutions

Connectivity & Cloud Solutions is the dominant contributor to the company’s top line, representing 75.55% of revenue last quarter at USD 2.41 billion. The consensus projection for this quarter’s total revenue of USD 3.48 billion, up 37.35% year over year, implies that the programs within this segment are expected to remain active, with shipment timing and delivery cadence shaping quarter-end revenue recognition. From a profitability lens, the lack of explicit margin guidance means investors will focus on whether gross margin can improve from the prior quarter’s 13.03% if mix benefits materialize, or if ramp costs and transitional inefficiencies weigh on conversion. The balance between high-volume builds and more specialized configurations could affect both gross profit margin and cycle times, which in turn may influence the net margin relative to last quarter’s 8.38%. Execution on program schedules typically determines the quarter’s revenue size, but the cost curve associated with new or expanding programs can also create dispersion in margin results; hence, commentary on build complexity and ramp maturity will be an important qualitative indicator. As the quarter closes, attention will naturally tilt toward the magnitude of shipment completions and any revenue that shifts across quarter boundaries, which can swing reported results relative to consensus. Given the segment’s scale, even modest variances in unit volumes or delivery timing can have measurable impacts on consolidated revenue and EPS for the quarter under review.

Largest Growth Potential: Advanced Technology Solutions

Advanced Technology Solutions contributed USD 781.00 million last quarter, or 24.45% of the company’s total revenue base, and represents a meaningful lever for incremental improvement if program execution strengthens. The dataset does not disclose a segment-level year-over-year growth rate for this business; nevertheless, management discipline in operational throughput, supply assurance, and customer program milestones can support steadier revenue conversion and potentially aid margin performance this quarter. Investors should watch for indications of pipeline sustainability, including follow-on orders and the phasing of new program ramps, which may influence visibility into the next quarter’s revenue shape. The ability to manage transition costs, maintain delivery reliability, and align labor and materials planning with customer schedules can mitigate short-term volatility and help stabilize gross margin at a time when the consolidated gross margin benchmark stands at 13.03%. If ATS can sustain a more predictable cadence while Connectivity & Cloud Solutions continues to scale, the combined effect could support EPS resilience against quarter-end operational noise. Commentary around order coverage and the balance of higher-complexity builds could also shed light on whether this business is positioned to contribute proportionally more to earnings as the year progresses. In short, while the near-term revenue lift may be concentrated in the larger segment, incremental improvements within Advanced Technology Solutions could play a significant role in shaping the company’s gross profit and operating income trajectory through and beyond this quarter.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The first determinant will be the size of the revenue and EPS print relative to consensus, which currently stands at USD 3.48 billion for revenue and USD 1.76 for adjusted EPS; beats or misses versus these levels typically trigger outsized moves given the implied growth rates of 37.35% and 65.79%, respectively. The second determinant is margin quality: investors will parse the gross profit margin outcome versus the prior quarter’s 13.03% and evaluate how segment mix, ramp costs, and pricing dynamics flowed through to the net profit margin versus the 8.38% benchmark. The third determinant is segment mix and backlog conversion commentary, particularly whether the company indicates sustained strength in Connectivity & Cloud Solutions while maintaining delivery discipline and execution efficiency in Advanced Technology Solutions. Additional read-throughs often include the cadence of purchase orders into the following quarter, the balance between higher-volume and higher-complexity builds, and any signs of quarter-to-quarter variability in customer schedules. Cash conversion and working capital efficiency are also watched closely in high-growth periods; better collections, disciplined inventory turns, and controlled program startup costs can support operating cash flow durability alongside earnings growth. Finally, management color on the near-term revenue glide path relative to the implied run-rate will help investors gauge whether the current quarter’s performance is more episodic or indicative of sustained momentum into the next few quarters.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional views within the eligible window are bullish, resulting in a clear skew toward positive expectations for this quarter’s print and setup. Multiple firms have reiterated Buy ratings and raised or affirmed targets that cluster well above the company’s historical trading levels, citing strong execution and constructive revenue trajectories. CIBC maintained a Buy stance with a target of USD 400.00, signaling confidence in the earnings and cash flow potential implied by the current consensus EPS of USD 1.76 and year-over-year growth of 65.79%. Barclays kept a Buy rating with a target of USD 220.00, emphasizing an outlook that aligns with the implied EBIT growth of 56.60% to USD 264.87 million, and suggesting that operating leverage could continue if revenue scales to the consensus USD 3.48 billion. BMO Capital reiterated a Buy with a target of USD 300.00, highlighting constructive assumptions around program execution and a favorable run-rate into the next quarter. Fox Advisors also maintained a Buy with a target of USD 300.00, underscoring a supportive stance on the near-term earnings power embedded in the current forecast framework. On balance, the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary stands at 100.00% to 0.00% within the collected set, with the bullish camp focusing on ongoing revenue expansion, operating leverage, and the likelihood that execution can sustain the elevated year-over-year growth expected for revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS this quarter. In aggregate, the prevailing institutional narrative anticipates that this quarter’s print will validate the recent acceleration in top-line and earnings metrics, while management’s commentary on segment trends and backlog conversion will be pivotal in reinforcing or challenging the durability of the performance into the next reporting period.