Abstract

Antero Midstream Corporation will report quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Post Market, and consensus points to higher revenue and stable margins, with investors focused on volume trends in gathering and processing and water services contributions.

Market Forecast

The market expects Antero Midstream Corporation’s current quarter revenue of $0.29 billion, with an estimated adjusted EPS of $0.26. Consensus also points to EBIT of $0.20 billion. Forecast year-over-year trends imply revenue growth of 6.86% and EPS expansion of 9.72%. Margin consensus indicates a stable gross profit margin profile and net profitability consistent with recent quarters, though explicit figures are not provided in the forecast dataset.

Management’s core business outlook remains anchored by gathering and processing volumes tied to Antero Resources’ development cadence, while water handling is expected to contribute steady fee-based revenue. The most promising segment is the gathering and processing unit, expected to generate approximately $0.24 billion this quarter with modest year-over-year growth, supported by throughput resilience.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Antero Midstream Corporation delivered revenue of $0.29 billion, a gross profit margin of 81.48%, GAAP net income attributable to the parent of $0.12 billion, a net profit margin of 37.12%, and adjusted EPS of $0.24, with year-over-year growth of 14.29% on EPS and 9.25% on revenue.

A key highlight was the strong margin profile that remained above 80.00% despite mixed commodity conditions, reflecting stable fee-based contracts. Main business revenue was driven by gathering and processing at $0.24 billion and water handling at $0.05 billion, with gathering and processing accounting for the majority of contribution; year-over-year mix and growth rates were consistent with total revenue growth.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Gathering and Processing: Throughput stability underpins earnings and cash generation

Gathering and processing is the core fee-based business for Antero Midstream Corporation and remains the principal earnings driver this quarter. The forecast revenue of approximately $0.24 billion suggests sustained throughput from Antero Resources’ development plans in the Marcellus and Utica. Stable tariffs and long-term contracts mitigate commodity price volatility, keeping adjusted EBITDA and EBIT predictability intact. Any upside to consensus would likely come from higher-than-anticipated well connections or stronger runtime at processing facilities, which would modestly lift volumes and operating leverage. Conversely, if weather or temporary operational downtime curtail throughput days, incremental revenue could lag estimates even if underlying demand remains solid, but the high-margin structure supports limited impact on profitability metrics.

Water Handling and Treatment: Fee-based stability with potential efficiency gains

Water handling, including fresh water delivery and produced water treatment and recycling, is expected to contribute around $0.05 billion in revenue this quarter. The segment’s margins tend to be lower than gathering and processing but remain attractive due to operating efficiencies and scale benefits in Antero Midstream Corporation’s dedicated footprint. Improvements in recycling rates and logistics coordination can reduce trucking and disposal costs for producers, indirectly supporting volumes and client activity. If Antero Resources sustains completion schedules, water throughput should align with forecast levels; any deferrals in completion activity could defer water revenue recognition. Over the medium term, incremental build-outs in water reuse and blending could enhance segment margin quality and reduce volatility tied to completion timing.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Volume cadence, margin resilience, and capital allocation

Equity performance this quarter will likely hinge on three operational levers. First, throughput cadence across gathering, compression, and processing will set the tone for topline and EBIT realization versus consensus; even small deviations in runtime can affect quarterly prints due to the high fixed-cost base. Second, margin resilience—evident in the last quarter’s 81.48% gross margin and 37.12% net margin—should remain a focal point for investors assessing the durability of fee-based economics amid any basin-level service cost inflation. Third, capital allocation updates, including maintenance capital, growth capital for infill and expansions, and the cadence of shareholder returns, can influence sentiment relative to perceived sustainability of free cash flow after dividends. Clarity on the trajectory of leverage and potential de-leveraging over the next year could also affect valuation multiples.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the majority view skews constructive on Antero Midstream Corporation into the print, emphasizing the predictability of fee-based cash flows and alignment with Antero Resources’ development plan. Positive opinions highlight that consensus revenue of $0.29 billion and EPS of $0.26 appear achievable given last quarter’s $0.29 billion baseline and consistent tariff structures. Supportive views also note EBIT expectations of roughly $0.20 billion align with historical conversion of revenue to operating income, reinforcing confidence in margin durability.

Bullish analysts cite the company’s high-margin profile and the opportunity for incremental volume upside from processing and gathering as potential catalysts for a modest beat. They also point to resilient water services activity supporting ancillary revenues and overall system utilization. While a minority of cautious views flag potential weather-related disruptions and the timing of Completions, the prevailing stance is that contractual protections and producer alignment mitigate downside risks this quarter. Overall, the consensus-leaning positive view anticipates in-line to slightly better-than-expected results with a continued focus on stable dividends and disciplined capital spending.