Abstract

Hawaiian Electric will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 27, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s performance, the current quarter’s revenue and earnings projections, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations and potential stock drivers.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest available forecasts for Hawaiian Electric’s current quarter, adjusted EPS is projected at $0.24, with a year-over-year change of -41.17%. Current-quarter forecasts for revenue, gross profit margin, net profit or net margin were not available. The company’s highlights point to a continued focus on stabilizing core utility operations and cost containment while navigating regulatory proceedings and litigation. The most promising business area is expected to be regulated electric operations, supported by rate mechanisms and fuel pass-throughs; detailed revenue and year-over-year figures were not available.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Hawaiian Electric recorded a GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $30.75 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter change of 17.87%; gross profit margin was 17.76%, net profit margin was 3.89%, and adjusted EPS was $0.19. Management continued to prioritize system reliability and expense control while progressing on recovery plans. The main business remained regulated electric service, with segment revenue concentrated in electricity sales; a revenue breakdown with year-over-year comparisons was not available.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core regulated utility operations

The key driver this quarter is expected to be the performance of regulated electric operations across Oahu, Maui, and Hawaii Island. Earnings visibility hinges on allowed cost recovery and the cadence of fuel and purchased power cost adjustments embedded in regulatory mechanisms. Investors will watch for updates on capital expenditure plans, grid hardening timetables, and how those translate into rate base growth and future return on equity trajectories. Any incremental clarity from the ongoing regulatory process may influence near-term sentiment, given the sensitivity of earnings to approved rate structures and the timing of true-ups.

On the cost side, operating expense trends, vegetation management, and maintenance outlays are likely to pressure the gross margin profile near term. Management’s progress on procurement efficiencies, as well as the mix of firm versus variable purchased power, will frame the movement in cost of goods sold and margin recovery potential. Weather patterns and demand normalization post-peak-season volatility could also modestly affect unit sales and revenue mix. Although gross profit margin stood at 17.76% last quarter, sustaining or expanding it will depend on both fuel cost pass-throughs and controllable O&M performance.

Cash flows from operations remain a focal point as the company balances debt service, regulatory escrow dynamics, and capital needs for resiliency projects. The interplay between working capital and collections—especially if there are lag effects in recovery mechanisms—could affect near-term liquidity optics. A steady quarter would show tighter expense discipline and limited variance in purchased power costs, supporting adjusted EPS closer to the $0.24 estimate.

Renewable integration and grid modernization

Another theme this quarter is the progress in integrating renewables and storage to meet Hawaii’s clean energy targets. The pace of interconnection for new solar-plus-storage projects, the availability of grid services, and any commissioning milestones can influence both operating costs and long-term rate base growth. As the resource mix shifts, ramp-related inefficiencies and system balancing requirements may temporarily weigh on margins, but they also set the stage for improved cost structures over time.

Project timing and capital deployment cadence are crucial, because incremental capital placed in service re-prices earnings through a growing regulated rate base. Investors will seek signs that project schedules are intact, cost overruns are contained, and procurement pathways remain reliable amid supply-chain variability. Clear commentary about expected megawatts installed, storage capacity additions, and the impact on reliability metrics can support confidence in medium-term earnings power despite near-term cost headwinds.

Transmission and distribution upgrades often carry extended approval cycles; any indications of streamlined approvals or accelerated recovery mechanisms would be constructive. Conversely, delays can push revenue recognition and compress short-term returns. This quarter’s updates could shift perceptions around the slope of multi-year investment and the associated EBIT contribution as projects enter service.

Litigation, regulatory outcomes, and capital structure

Stock performance this quarter is sensitive to news flow on litigation and regulatory outcomes. Resolution timing, potential settlement frameworks, or judicial milestones can influence perceived contingent liabilities and, by extension, equity valuation multiples. While these matters often evolve over multi-quarter timelines, incremental disclosures may alter the risk profile that investors, lenders, and rating agencies ascribe to the company.

Capital structure is another important lens. Access to liquidity, maturities management, and potential shifts in credit ratings bear directly on the cost of capital and, ultimately, allowed versus earned returns. Investors will evaluate whether the company can preserve financial flexibility while funding grid resiliency and clean energy projects. A stable outlook would entail manageable refinancing needs, no material degradation in credit metrics, and evidence that operating cash flows and regulated mechanisms are sufficient to support obligations.

If management guides toward tighter cost containment and quantifies potential recovery timelines, the market could narrow the discount embedded in the shares for uncertainty. Conversely, any expansion of litigation scope or adverse signals from regulatory processes could overshadow operating progress, pressuring the equity regardless of near-term EPS prints.

Analyst Opinions

Recent analyst and institutional commentary skews cautious, with a majority leaning toward a neutral-to-bearish stance into the print. The prevailing view emphasizes headline risk from litigation and the uncertainty around regulatory cost recovery, suggesting asymmetric downside if protections or settlements lag expectations. Where analysts see stability is in the fundamental mechanics of a regulated utility: fuel and purchased power pass-throughs functioning as designed and incremental clarity on rate base growth underpinning medium-term earnings, albeit with a subdued near-term trajectory.

Several well-followed institutions highlight that even with an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.24 this quarter, the year-over-year decline of 41.17% underscores margin compression and higher operating costs. Commentary also notes that free cash flow coverage remains a watch item until there is more visibility on recovery timelines. The majority position posits that valuation should reflect elevated uncertainty, advocating patience until clearer signals emerge on litigation outcomes and rate case sequencing.

The analysts in the cautious camp point out that near-term catalysts are likely to be non-fundamental: headlines from court dockets or regulatory filings may move the stock more than operational variances. This perspective implies that upside surprises in earnings quality—if accompanied by constructive updates on approval and recovery mechanisms—could lead to short-covering and multiple normalization. Absent that, consensus expects muted share performance, with potential downside skew from adverse developments. Overall, the majority view remains guarded heading into the report, focusing on risk containment and liquidity preservation as the key themes for the quarter.