The market staged a collective rebound today, with the ChiNext Index surging more than 5% and the Shenzhen Component Index gaining over 3.5%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.61%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.79%, and the ChiNext Index jumped 5.3%.

Sector-wise, AI hardware stocks led the charge, with PCB concepts continuing their upward trend, CPO concepts strengthening, and MLCC concepts becoming active again. The large financial sector saw a notable intraday surge, and non-ferrous metals performed well. On the downside, the coal sector weakened.

More than 3,900 stocks across the market advanced, with over a hundred hitting their daily limit-up. The combined turnover for the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges was 3.03 trillion yuan, a decrease of 183.8 billion yuan from the previous session.

Buoyed by news of a "US-Iran agreement," Asia-Pacific stock markets rebounded today, with A-share tech sectors, particularly AI hardware, experiencing a strong recovery. Both high-flying stocks that fell sharply last week and core large-cap stocks saw significant gains today.

Furthermore, with over 3,900 stocks rising, the tech rally did not revert the market to the previous pattern of more losers than gainers. At least for today, the market was "harmonious."

This contrasts with last Friday, a generally positive trading day where high-flying tech stocks still faced the dilemma of falling against the trend, sparking renewed weekend discussions about a rotation from high to low valuations.

How should this be interpreted? Simply thinking "the tech theme is back" or "old leading stocks might trap investors again" could be a mistake of being bullish when prices rise and bearish when they fall.

In reality, assessing the "strength" of the tech rebound requires not only looking at today's gains but also observing whether these gains can be sustained tomorrow. This verification process is precisely what low-priced stocks that rebounded last Friday are undergoing today.

From a trend perspective, tech themes are in a state of "medium-term uptrend, short-term adjustment," while low-priced stocks are experiencing a "long-term downtrend, short-term rebound." The "game" logic at the shareholding level differs between the two.

Some views suggest that after last Friday's broad rally in low-priced stocks, which saw intraday pullbacks from highs, today's session also tested selling pressure from "trapped positions." Therefore, subsequent trading days are likely to see further differentiation and a narrowing of the rally's scope, as capital naturally flows towards the path of least resistance.

Against this backdrop of differentiation in low-priced stocks, short-term funds flowing back into tech stocks is a viable option, especially given today's strong risk appetite in global markets.

Conversely, if the market is expected to seek safety in the near future, the strong tech rebound might present a short-term selling opportunity. However, if market sentiment remains positive, a scenario where both styles rise simultaneously could also occur.

The question then arises: with several key event nodes ahead this month—including the Fed's interest rate meeting early Thursday Beijing time, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday on June 19th (meaning only four trading days this week), and the futures delivery day postponed to next Monday (June 22nd) due to the holiday—can the bullish sentiment in tech stocks remain stable before these events unfold?

China Merchants Securities' strategy team believes that as three major external disturbances from last week (inflation/employment data, SpaceX IPO, US-Iran tensions) gradually subside, market risk appetite is expected to recover, favoring tech stocks and suppressed sectors like non-ferrous metals and mid-to-downstream chemicals.

They note that while the US manufacturing recovery has led to modest employment improvement, inflation remains concentrated in energy and has not spread to core CPI. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in June, shifting market focus to the policy statement and officials' comments.

On the liquidity front, margin trading activity slowed last week, with leverage cooling down, but funds are expected to flow back as risk appetite recovers.

The AI sector shows differentiated trading: upstream trading on inflation, downstream on deflation. Long-term focus should be on the growth rate of token consumption; as long as demand expansion outpaces price declines, the industry will maintain a positive cycle.

Additionally, rising expectations of eased US-Iran tensions help reduce energy risk premiums.

Looking at today's sector performance, tech stocks led the broad recovery, with upstream materials like copper-clad laminates, glass substrates, glass fiber, and semiconductor silicon wafers being the main gainers.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global AI optical module PCB market will grow from $620 million in 2025 to $3.77 billion in 2028—a more than fivefold increase in three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 83%, far exceeding the 60% growth rate for optical modules.

Huaxi Securities points out that strong AI computing demand is driving accelerated iteration of upstream PCB copper foil. Due to relatively high technical and process difficulty, and limitations in post-processing equipment, short-term capacity release is insufficient. The supply-demand mismatch for high-end products like HVLP is driving price increases. Copper foil companies capable of scaling up production of lithium battery ultra-thin products and supplying high-end PCB products are expected to benefit from industry demand growth, significantly improving profitability.

Among low-priced sectors, the unusual activity in the brokerage sector is noteworthy. Wind data shows the "Securities Selected Index," which includes 21 brokerage stocks and surged 3.66% last Friday, rose over 5% in early trading, with several stocks hitting their limit-up, before paring gains to close up 2.71%.

As mentioned, due to trapped positions, sectors rebounding from lows often face significant selling pressure, making upper shadows (intraday pullbacks) reasonable. However, historically, since late September 2024, consecutive gains in the brokerage sector have been rare. When they occur, they often signal index stabilization.

For example, from June 23 to 25 last year, the index rose 8.60% cumulatively over three days from a阶段性 low. Within less than half a year, the Shanghai Composite Index rallied from the 3300-point platform to 4000 points.

East Money Securities states that historically, brokerage sector rallies often begin with a triple resonance of "valuation bottom, policy bottom, and macro bottom." In recent years, policies have increasingly supported stabilizing and invigorating the capital market, leading to a significant market回暖. Brokerage performance has shown clear improvement, with various business lines developing positively. It is expected that, against a backdrop of policy guidance, improved market赚钱效应, and ample存款资金蓄水池, incremental funds will likely accelerate their entry into the market, driving continued recovery in the sector's fundamentals and valuations.