【1】Market Performance: The BU main contract 2601 rose in early trading but retreated in the afternoon, closing at 3,043 with a 1.44% intraday range and a 0.81% decline. Over the past seven days, it gained 0.4%. The next-month contract 2602 fell 0.75%, maintaining a Contango structure with near-term prices lower than deferred contracts.

【2】Spot Market: ① Shandong heavy-duty bitumen prices held steady at 3,020 yuan/ton, with a cumulative seven-day change of 0%. The Shandong basis narrowed to -23 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton over the week. ② East China heavy-duty bitumen prices remained unchanged at 3,240 yuan/ton, trading at a premium to futures. The East China basis stood at 197 yuan/ton, weakening by 61 yuan/ton over seven days.

【3】Crack Spreads: ① The BU-Brent spread widened to -169 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton weekly. Earlier analysis noted limited downside for the spread, recommending profit-taking on dips. With the spread rebounding, short positions should consider cutting losses. BU fell 0.8% on the day, while Brent dipped 0.1% (based on 3 PM closing prices). ② Daily spreads: BU-SC (+1.4), BU-LU (-33), BU-FU (-1).

【4】Fundamental Developments: Internationally, a fire at Venezuela’s Jose industrial complex halted the 200,000 b/d Petrocedeno distillation unit, further straining its already limited operational capacity. Meanwhile, renewed U.S. military threats against Venezuela heightened tensions, potentially disrupting diluted bitumen exports. The diluted bitumen discount widened to -$10.73/bbl (vs. -11.25 previously), driving a notable rise in port inventories (multiple VLCCs docked). Typically, Venezuelan supply disruptions would narrow the discount, but current data shows divergence, suggesting event-driven supply impacts require monitoring.

Domestically, bitumen fundamentals remain lackluster. Market focus centers on cost risks, particularly potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A deal could pressure oil prices, dragging bitumen lower. Winter stockpiling demand warrants attention (recent updates muted), while oil price volatility from geopolitical talks poses a key risk.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Fundamentally, prices face headwinds from weak demand and inventory pressure, with winter stocking trends critical. Year-end OPEC+ supply hikes may weigh on oil prices, likely pulling bitumen lower. Technically, prices are range-bound near lows, with limited downside expected (reference range: 3,010–3,100).

【6】Strategy: ① Trade range-bound; ② Sell 2601 put options; ③ Stop-loss on short BU-Brent crack spreads.