Abstract

Bullish will report second-quarter 2026 results on August 13, 2026, Pre-MKt; this preview outlines expected revenue of 88.44 million US dollars, projected adjusted EPS of 0.105, and the key operational drivers, segment dynamics, and prevailing analyst expectations investors are tracking into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest projections, Bullish’s second-quarter revenue is estimated at 88.44 million US dollars, implying 58.23% year-over-year growth and a modest sequential dip from the prior quarter; EBIT is projected at 22.91 million US dollars with 366.31% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EPS is forecast at 0.105, up 516.17% year-over-year. No formal gross margin or GAAP net profit guidance for the quarter is available; the most recent quarter’s gross margin was 100.00%, and net profitability remains sensitive to trading activity and non-cash items.

The main business remains anchored in transaction-driven and services revenue, with June’s total transactions reaching 50.90 billion US dollars and suggesting firm month-end activity; the quarter’s forecast points to stronger year-over-year top-line momentum even as fee mix and operating costs shape earnings quality. The most promising strategic growth vector continues to be tokenized-securities and issuer services, underpinned by regulatory progress and the Equiniti integration pathway; management has reiterated a full-year 2026 target for adjusted subscription, services and other revenue of 220.00–250.00 million US dollars, while specific year-over-year growth for this segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the first quarter of 2026, Bullish delivered revenue of 92.80 million US dollars with a 100.00% gross profit margin; GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company was approximately 582.00 million US dollars, translating to an estimated net profit margin of about -627.16%, and adjusted EPS came in at 0.13. The quarter modestly undershot internal estimates on revenue (versus a 93.56 million US dollars estimate) while reflecting the impact of low trading activity and elevated non-cash charges on bottom-line metrics.

A notable business update following the quarter was the pace of activity recovery into June, when total transactions reached 50.90 billion US dollars, signaling improving client engagement toward quarter end. Revenue mix for the quarter remained concentrated: approximately 92.70 million US dollars from digital-asset-related activities and about 0.10 million US dollars from other lines, with year-over-year segment growth rates not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory and revenue quality

The headline for the second quarter is a solid year-over-year revenue expansion to an estimated 88.44 million US dollars (+58.23% YoY), even as the forecast implies a sequential decline versus the prior quarter’s 92.80 million US dollars. The sequential pattern aligns with mixed intra-quarter conditions: a quieter start followed by stronger exit rates, evidenced by June transactions of 50.90 billion US dollars. This composition matters for revenue quality, because fee capture depends not only on absolute volumes but also on product mix, pricing bands, and the clients’ propensity to trade high-spread pairs or to deploy capital into subscription and service offerings.

The company’s most recent quarter exhibited a 100.00% gross margin, reflecting the high contribution of fee and service income to recognized revenue; the coming quarter’s gross margin isn’t guided, but the model sensitivity suggests that margin should remain robust provided volumes hold and incentives do not materially dilute take rates. With EBIT estimated at 22.91 million US dollars (+366.31% YoY), operating leverage can improve if activity levels sustain and variable cost lines—such as promotional incentives, liquidity provisioning, and client acquisition—remain contained. Adjusted EPS is forecast at 0.105 (+516.17% YoY), which embeds not only revenue normalization versus last year but also a leaner expense run-rate versus the heavy non-cash items that pressured GAAP metrics previously.

Another determinant of this quarter’s print is the balance between transaction-based revenue and recurring or subscription-like streams. Management has reiterated a full-year 2026 target for adjusted subscription, services and other revenue of 220.00–250.00 million US dollars, an anchor that provides some cushion to revenue cyclicality. If momentum in these steadier lines accelerates into the back half, the quarterly cadence should become smoother, even when spot market volatility or risk appetite cools. For this quarter, investors will likely focus on fee-rate commentary, volume trends across April–June, and any signals on the sustainability of the June upswing.

Tokenized securities and Equiniti integration as a catalyst

Bullish has achieved a regulatory milestone by receiving approval from the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission to offer trading in tokenized securities for eligible non-U.S. investors, with go-live contingent on pre-launch conditions. In parallel, the proposed 4.20 billion US dollars all-stock acquisition of Equiniti has secured antitrust clearances in the UK, the U.S., and Germany, marking a significant regulatory step forward. Together, these developments point toward a broader product and service set that can complement core transaction revenue with issuer services, transfer agency capabilities, and distribution rails for digital representations of traditional instruments.

From a near-term earnings standpoint, the integration timeline and pre-go-live milestones are essential. Tokenized-securities trading, once launched, can set up incremental revenue lines via listing fees, custody, corporate action processing, and secondary trading spreads. Equiniti’s infrastructure adds operational breadth that can support those use cases, offering a bridge between established corporate workflows and newer digital-asset mechanics. Although explicit quarterly revenue contribution has not been itemized, management’s reiterated full-year 2026 adjusted subscription, services and other revenue target of 220.00–250.00 million US dollars provides a sense of scale for the expanding services platform.

Strategically, this combination can reduce earnings volatility over time by raising the share of predictable service revenue relative to purely transaction-tied income. In the current quarter, investors will listen for updates on the Equiniti closing timeline, planned product rollouts linked to tokenized instruments, and any early client wins that suggest revenue ramp in the second half of the year. Leadership’s commentary on commercialization milestones—such as issuer onboarding pipelines, cross-selling to existing clients, and potential partnerships—will inform how quickly these initiatives can contribute to adjusted EBIT and EPS.

What may drive the stock around the print

Stock reaction is likely to hinge on the interplay between reported revenue, the adjusted EBIT/EPS trajectory, and management’s narrative on activity trends into July and early August. With the revenue estimate of 88.44 million US dollars up 58.23% year over year yet down modestly from last quarter, any positive surprise on take rates or stronger-than-expected June carryover could lift sentiment. Conversely, if fee capture proves softer than volumes imply, or if July activity retraced from June, the market may question the durability of the rebound implied in the year-over-year comparisons.

Investors will also parse any details on non-cash charges and one-off items that influenced last quarter’s GAAP net loss. Clarity on the expense trajectory is essential: integrating Equiniti will have transitional costs that may not fully align with revenue benefits in the same quarter, so a roadmap for phasing of expenses and synergy timing will help frame adjusted EBIT and EPS in the second half. On capital allocation, updates on technology investment cadence, liquidity provisioning strategy, and any balance-sheet considerations linked to the pending acquisition can influence how investors underwrite the earnings multiple.

Finally, proof points around the services portfolio—subscription, transfer agency, and tokenized issuances—can become a differentiator for valuation if management demonstrates momentum toward the 220.00–250.00 million US dollars full-year target in those lines. Even small quantified disclosures on run-rate or contracted backlog would enhance visibility. Across these vectors, the market is seeking confirmation that the June activity uptick was not an isolated spike and that higher-quality, recurring revenue streams are gaining traction in parallel with trading income.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional opinions skews positive. Among four notable signals collected year-to-date, two are bullish, one is neutral-to-bearish, and one is neutral, resulting in a bullish majority view. Canaccord Genuity’s Joseph Vafi reiterated a Buy rating with a 50.00 US dollars target, citing support from the company’s tokenization strategy and stablecoin-related growth initiatives. Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating while adjusting its target to 61.00 US dollars from 63.00 US dollars, pointing to a constructive earnings recovery path and the potential for the services platform to improve revenue quality and lessen cyclicality over time.

On the other side, Rosenblatt shifted its view to neutral from buy with a 39.00 US dollars target, flagging risks tied to weaker crypto activity and a fading boost from non-trading income linked to past market events. Meanwhile, a Hold rating from another major research house framed expectations conservatively near-term. Despite those cautions, the prevailing consensus from the bullish camp emphasizes that management’s execution on tokenized-securities capabilities, together with the Equiniti combination, can broaden the revenue base, increase adjusted profitability leverage, and set up a more sustainable growth profile beyond purely transaction-driven cycles.

From a near-term catalyst perspective, bullish analysts are looking for three confirmations in the print and guide: a) evidence that June’s 50.90 billion US dollars in transactions translated into healthier fee capture and stable take rates; b) incremental disclosure on services-run-rate progress against the full-year 220.00–250.00 million US dollars goal; and c) integration milestones and commercialization details around tokenized securities for eligible non-U.S. investors, including go-live timing and early client engagement. If management provides quantification that links activity momentum to the 22.91 million US dollars EBIT estimate and the projected 0.105 adjusted EPS, the bullish case argues the shares can begin to re-rate on improved earnings visibility and a mix shift toward fee and service income.

In framing the risk-reward, the bullish view acknowledges that the last reported GAAP net loss (approximately 582.00 million US dollars) and the implied -627.16% net profit margin reflect legacy and non-cash drags that obscure the underlying adjusted trajectory. The emphasis is on the notable expected year-over-year improvements—58.23% for revenue, 366.31% for EBIT, and 516.17% for adjusted EPS—for the current quarter, contingent upon steady volumes and disciplined expense control. Analysts in this camp also see the Equiniti platform as an accelerant for corporate client relationships and revenue stability, potentially making near-term volatility around quarterly transaction revenue less determinative for valuation as the services book scales.

Overall, with a bullish-to-bearish tilt favoring the former, the majority expectation is that Bullish’s second-quarter results and commentary will show progress on both activity normalization and services expansion. Confirmation of these themes—particularly through concrete metrics on services run-rate and tokenized-securities rollout milestones—would validate the more constructive stance that recent Buy-rated research conveys heading into August 13, 2026, Pre-MKt.