Abstract

Vale SA will release its Q4 2025 results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles the latest quarter’s financials, company guidance, and sell-side expectations to frame revenue, margins, EPS, and business mix outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled from the company’s current-quarter forecast implies Q4 2025 revenue of $10.90 billion, up 7.83% year over year, with EBIT of $3.42 billion, reflecting a 9.91% expected year-over-year increase, and forecast EPS of $0.62, rising 30.51% year over year. The previous quarter’s gross profit margin was 36.37% and the net profit margin was 25.78%; the company has not issued explicit margin guidance for this quarter, but consensus points to stable-to-improving profitability alongside the revenue growth.

Management’s highlights and outlook emphasize the iron ore–anchored Iron Solutions franchise as the core earnings engine, supported by volume discipline and cost control, while Base Metals provides diversification and investment-led optionality. The most promising segment is Iron Solutions, which last quarter generated $8.42 billion in revenue, and is expected to benefit from resilient seaborne demand and firmer price realizations; Base Metals contributed $1.997 billion last quarter, with improving cost trajectories in copper and nickel guiding sentiment.

Last Quarter Review

In Q3 2025, Vale SA delivered revenue of $10.42 billion, a gross margin of 36.37%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $14.62 billion, a net profit margin of 25.78%, and adjusted EPS of $0.63, with revenue up 9.07% year over year and adjusted EPS up 12.50% year over year.

A notable financial highlight was adjusted EPS exceeding consensus ($0.63 vs. $0.53 estimate) as cost execution offset softer EBIT versus estimates. By business line, Iron Solutions generated $8.42 billion, while Base Metals posted $1.997 billion, with management messaging focused on volume stability in iron ore and better unit cost visibility in copper and nickel.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Iron Solutions

The Iron Solutions unit underpins Vale SA’s earnings capacity and cash generation entering Q4 2025. Pricing dynamics are favorably biased by resilient Chinese ex-property steel demand, restocking into early calendar 2026, and disciplined supply from peers, supporting realized prices on premium fines and pellets. Shipment cadence into year-end and early first quarter typically reflects contracted volumes to strategic customers, and Vale SA’s focus on product quality mix and logistical reliability positions the business to translate volume into margin consistency. Cost normalization aided by energy, freight, and strip-ratio stability should help preserve the last quarter’s 36.37% gross margin baseline, with the Q4 revenue forecast of $10.90 billion implying healthy iron ore contribution. Net profit sensitivity remains tied to price realizations per dry metric ton and freight spreads; model scenarios indicate that flat-to-modestly higher realized prices can sustain the 25.78% net margin run-rate in the absence of exogenous disruptions.

Most promising business: Base Metals

Base Metals, with $1.997 billion of revenue last quarter, stands out for potential upside via cost and reliability gains in copper and nickel. The company communicated lower 2025 all-in cost estimates in copper and nickel, and analysts highlighted improved operational performance in Q3 2025, which can continue to filter into Q4 margin expansion if smelting and refining availabilities remain consistent. Investor attention is skewed to copper, where constructive demand narratives in grid, renewables, and electrification anchor medium-term pricing, while nickel sentiment is more mixed given supply overhangs; the near-term driver is cost compression and stabilization rather than pure price beta. If copper realizations track recent spot ranges and Vale SA holds its site-level unit cost improvements, EBIT leverage in Base Metals could provide incremental contribution to the consolidated 9.91% forecast EBIT growth in Q4.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Commodity price realizations across iron ore, copper, and nickel are the central variable for Q4 results and post-print stock reaction. Sensitivity to seaborne iron ore prices remains acute; consensus revenue of $10.90 billion implicitly bakes in supportive iron ore price averages and stable pellet premiums, so any deviation in average realized price will directly affect top line and margin translation. Operational delivery in Base Metals is the second key factor, with the market parsing unit cost prints against prior reductions and looking for sequential progress in EBIT per ton. Finally, corporate actions or updates on capital allocation, including dividends and buybacks, can sway equity sentiment; EPS forecast growth of 30.51% year over year establishes room for shareholder returns if leverage and capital commitments remain within communicated guardrails.

Analyst Opinions

Sell-side sentiment over the past six months skews bullish. Among the most recent and prominent views, BMO Capital reiterated a Buy with an $18.00 price target, emphasizing operational outperformance and valuation appeal. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy, citing cost efficiencies and growth prospects in Base Metals, reiterating the constructive stance in mid-November and again in early September. Bank of America Securities kept a Buy, highlighting strategic initiatives and financial resilience through the cycle. RBC Capital has featured both Buy and Hold stances across different notes, while Deutsche Bank maintained Hold with a $12.00 target, reflecting a more balanced view. Aggregating across these updates yields a majority of bullish opinions versus neutral, with positive calls outnumbering holds.

The majority view centers on upside to Q4 profitability underpinned by steady iron ore price floors and improving Base Metals execution. Proponents argue that the company’s Q3 beat on adjusted EPS and visible progress on copper and nickel costs create a credible setup for year-over-year EPS acceleration in Q4 to $0.62, consistent with the 30.51% forecast growth. Supportive commentary also points to cash generation quality from premium products in Iron Solutions, and the optionality from Base Metals as capex and portfolio actions advance. The bullish case expects revenue near $10.90 billion, stable-to-better gross and net margins versus last quarter’s 36.37% and 25.78%, respectively, and a constructive full-year exit run-rate for 2026. In this framing, investors may look for confirmation of pricing resilience in realized iron ore and copper, evidence of continued cost discipline in Base Metals, and clarity on capital returns to validate the prevailing positive stance.