Abstract

AMALGAMATED FINANCIAL CORP will report Q4 2025 results on January 22, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to modest top-line growth and stable profitability metrics.

Market Forecast

For the quarter ending December 2025, AMALGAMATED FINANCIAL CORP’s revenue is forecast at USD 84.87 million, up 2.35% year over year, with estimated EBIT at USD 42.32 million, and adjusted EPS at USD 0.91, implying year-over-year growth of 3.02%. Forecast margin detail is limited; however, the company’s net profit margin last quarter stood at 33.36%, offering a baseline for anticipated profitability. The bank’s core banking business remains the primary driver, and is expected to benefit from stable loan yields and disciplined deposit pricing. The most promising segment is the core banking franchise, with last quarter’s banking revenue at USD 80.31 million and a year-over-year increase implied by consensus growth trajectories.

Last Quarter Review

AMALGAMATED FINANCIAL CORP delivered last quarter revenue of USD 85.61 million, with GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company at USD 26.79 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.08%, and a net profit margin of 33.36%; adjusted EPS was USD 0.91 and actual year-over-year growth was reported at 0.00%. A notable highlight was EBIT of USD 43.06 million, exceeding estimates by USD 1.13 million. The main business was banking, generating USD 80.31 million revenue, and consensus signals mid-single-digit year-over-year expansion consistent with the bank’s risk-controlled growth strategy.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Banking Revenue and Margin Dynamics

The principal business is commercial and consumer banking, and the quarter’s performance hinges on loan growth, net interest margin stability, and credit cost management. With revenue projected at USD 84.87 million, expectations suggest slightly lower sequential revenue versus the prior quarter, aligning with seasonal balance sheet normalization and holiday-period transaction volumes. Profitability should be anchored by pricing discipline on deposits and a relatively stable asset yield profile, although rate volatility since October 2025 may have introduced minor pressure on asset/liability repricing. Management’s recent track record of maintaining a net profit margin of 33.36% provides context for investors assessing bottom-line resilience, and consensus EPS of USD 0.91 implies earnings continuity supported by balanced fee and interest income.

Most Promising Driver: Interest Income and Operating Efficiency

The growth lever to watch is core net interest income combined with controlled operating expenses, which underpins EBIT guidance at USD 42.32 million. If the deposit mix continues to shift toward lower-cost balances and non-interest-bearing accounts, the incremental benefit to net interest margin can partially offset any moderation in loan origination volumes. The prior quarter’s EBIT beat of USD 1.13 million indicates disciplined expense management, and a similar approach in this quarter could sustain operating leverage despite modest revenue growth. The forecast EPS increase of 3.02% year over year signals potential improvement in per-share profitability even as total revenue growth remains low-single-digit.

Stock Price Sensitivities: Credit Quality, Deposit Costs, and Rate Path

Share performance this quarter is likely influenced by credit quality trends, the trajectory of deposit costs, and evolving expectations for the interest rate path. Any uptick in nonperforming assets or net charge-offs could weigh on valuation multiples, while evidence of stable credit metrics would reinforce earnings durability. Market expectations for interest rate adjustments in early 2026 shape assumptions for asset yields and liability costs; favorable deposit pricing outcomes would support net interest margin resiliency. Investors will look for confirmation that cost controls persist and that loan growth remains healthy enough to support the forecast revenue and EPS, with management commentary on balance sheet positioning and hedging strategies serving as a key validation point.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of institutional commentary collected over the past six months reflects cautiously positive expectations, with more favorable views than negative ones on near-term earnings stability. Analysts highlighting the prior quarter’s EBIT beat and consistent EPS delivery argue for steady execution and manageable credit risks, with a balanced outlook for net interest margin amidst mixed rate signals. The consensus tilt is constructive, focusing on cost discipline and the potential for incremental margin benefits from deposit mix optimization, while acknowledging that sequential revenue softness may cap upside. This cautiously positive stance emphasizes watchful confidence rather than aggressive growth assumptions, favoring stable-to-modestly improving profitability in the upcoming report.