On November 18, following an in-depth analysis of market dynamics, it was observed that Bitcoin's recent rapid decline is reshaping investor expectations for the cryptocurrency market. The speed of this downturn has triggered the fastest sentiment reversal this year, with traders abandoning earlier optimistic projections of a rebound. Instead, they are now viewing this correction as a potential structural breakdown rather than a mere technical pullback. On-chain data further indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a late-stage sell-off zone, with clear oversold momentum, intensified realized losses, and a slowdown in ETF outflows. These signs suggest the market is undergoing a deep reshuffling of capital and sentiment. Despite significant short-term pressure, the true bottom has yet to fully form, and investors must remain vigilant in monitoring market signals to gauge future trends.

Recently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen notable declines, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 27% from last month's peak, while Ethereum's weekly losses expanded to around 15%. This steep correction reflects a repricing of risk by market participants and exposes the vulnerability of both retail and institutional investors in the face of extreme volatility. A recent report highlighted that even professional trading desks did not anticipate weekly closes below $100,000 or a breach of the 50-week moving average, viewing this as a critical cyclical turning point. On-chain analytics from Glassnode show mounting market pressure, including pronounced oversold conditions, increasing realized losses, and slowing ETF outflows—all pointing to Bitcoin entering a near "final phase" of selling. However, analysts at CryptoQuant argue that the market still lacks the final conditions for a true bottom, as long-term holders continue to offload assets at elevated levels, indicating selling pressure has not yet fully subsided and further adjustments may be ahead.

Currently, the market is caught between "early fatigue" and "not yet full capitulation." This suggests that volatility may intensify in the coming period, with Bitcoin and Ethereum likely to remain under pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, gold and Asia-Pacific equities are also experiencing fluctuations due to factors such as interest rate expectations and a stronger U.S. dollar. The market's performance during this phase will serve as a critical reference for investors assessing medium-to-long-term trends. Investors are advised to carefully evaluate on-chain data, capital flows, and overall market sentiment to formulate more resilient strategies while maintaining risk awareness to navigate potential turbulence.