The US-Iran conflict has entered a fragile ceasefire period, but signals from all sides are severely divided, with the situation potentially reversing at any moment.
According to reports, on July 25, former President Trump ordered the US military to refrain from launching new airstrikes against Iran, ending the nearly two-week-long daily bombing campaign. Two sources said this move was partly intended to "leave some space" for diplomatic negotiations.
However, on July 27, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated at a press conference that there are currently no negotiations between Iran and the US. Meanwhile, reports emerged on Monday that a suspected drone and missile attack struck and set fire to Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing facility in the Eastern Province. This facility is one of the world's largest crude oil stabilization processing centers, and substantial damage could significantly impact global crude supply.
The ceasefire has held for about two days, but the US blockade of Iranian ports continues, and military operations on both sides could resume at any time. Iran insists it controls the Strait of Hormuz and states that "only Tehran decides when the conflict ends."
Washington signals peace talks, but internal divisions are clear
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said on Sunday that Trump is working to "leave a little space" for negotiations, noting that Oman, Iran, and multiple negotiators have been in intensive contact at various levels, particularly over the past few days.
However, there is clear internal division in Washington over whether to resume military operations. According to reports, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, privately warned that resuming major combat operations against Iran would severely deplete the US Central Command's existing interceptor missile stockpiles. Citing two sources, Axios reported that General Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, has recommended halting bombing operations near the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the mission has reached its maximum effectiveness. Vice President Vance also expressed concerns to the president about the risk of escalating the war during a White House meeting on Friday.
Regarding reports of a dwindling interceptor missile stockpile, Waltz explicitly denied this, stating, "I have verified through various means that the US military has all the resources needed to effectively execute this operation."
Tehran denies negotiations, maintains strong stance
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated clearly on Monday that there are "no negotiations" with the US, labeling Trump's recent claim that Iran was "actively seeking talks" as "fake news." He also pointed out that Iran is not opposed to using diplomatic means to protect national interests and revealed that Iran and Omani officials held several "useful" consultations on managing vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports.
On the military front, Iran maintains a hardline posture. According to reports, Iran's parliamentary committee chairman warned Ukraine on Monday that its attacks against Iran would come at a cost. He stated that the US and Israel have already realized this, and Ukraine will soon learn that "Iran will not remain passive in response to attacks." Meanwhile, an unnamed Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran's stance remains "exchange for exchange" — if the US stops attacks, Iran will also stop operations, a message that has been communicated to the US.
Abqaiq facility reportedly attacked, posing risk to global oil markets
Last week, the Houthi group attacked Saudi oil facilities in the Red Sea port twice in one day. On July 25, the Houthis announced they had launched two rounds of strikes against two Saudi Aramco facilities on the Red Sea coast — the first targeting Jazan and the second targeting Yanbu — using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, claiming "precise and direct hits." Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes, hitting multiple Houthi positions in Yemen's Marib and Al Jawf governorates, resulting in the deaths of several militants, including missile technicians.
Tensions in Saudi Arabia escalated again on Monday. Iranian state media, citing sources and on-site images, reported that the Abqaiq oil processing facility in the Eastern Province was hit by a drone and missile attack, causing a fire. The Saudi Defense Ministry later confirmed to Al Arabiya that it had intercepted drones flying from Iraq, attempting to attack oil and gas facilities in the Eastern Province and the Riyadh region.
Abqaiq is the world's largest crude oil stabilization and processing facility, with international bodies typically estimating its maximum processing capacity at 7 million barrels per day and normal operating capacity at about 4.9 million barrels per day. The Houthi media outlet on the same day played up the fire at the facility, with the group's military spokesperson having previously claimed attacks on the Jazan and Yanbu facilities. International media reported that black smoke was visible at the relevant locations, but Saudi authorities have not yet officially confirmed all attacks.
If the damage to Abqaiq is confirmed, it would be the most significant event to impact global energy markets in this conflict so far.