Despite holding a final shortlist of five candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted last week that he has already made up his mind.

"I think I know my pick," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about his choice to replace outgoing Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. "I’d love to change that person now, but I’m being held back."

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, overseeing the selection process, conducted the final second-round interviews on Tuesday. He confirmed five strong contenders and suggested Trump is highly likely to announce his nominee before Christmas (December 25).

The finalists include Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock’s global head of fixed income, Rick Rieder.

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg sees Warsh as a frontrunner, though Hassett—who interacts frequently with Trump as an advisor—is also a strong contender. Seiberg added that Waller could emerge as a compromise candidate.

"On monetary policy, we wouldn’t describe these three leading candidates as traditional doves," Seiberg noted. "While they’ve recently advocated rate cuts aligning with the president’s wishes, all three prioritize price stability. If inflation resurges, they may risk clashing with Trump."

**Candidate Breakdown:**

**Kevin Hassett** As NEC director, Hassett has close ties to Trump and advises on economic policy. He previously served in Trump’s first term.

Hassett recently emphasized Fed independence, sound monetary policy, and aligning rates with economic conditions. He criticized the Fed for misjudging post-pandemic inflation and stimulus-driven price surges, calling past hikes during Trump’s tax cuts and recent pre-election easing "partisan."

"I believe the Fed needs a major overhaul," Hassett said, endorsing a 50-basis-point December cut amid government shutdown risks. He confirmed he’d accept the chair role if offered.

Sources say Hassett is viewed as Trump’s top choice—a trusted ally who could advance the president’s rate-cut agenda. However, Trump’s unpredictable decisions leave the outcome uncertain.

**Christopher Waller** As a sitting Fed governor appointed by Trump, Waller’s policy alignment gives him an edge. He was the first official post-June meeting to call for a July rate cut.

Waller supports easing next month, citing labor market softness over inflation risks. He attributes slowing job growth to weak demand and reduced immigration but sees no wage-pressure evidence. On tariffs, he views their inflationary impact as temporary, with core inflation near the Fed’s 2% target.

Waller met with Mnuchin about the role, calling it a "great discussion" and expressing confidence in his qualifications.

**Michelle Bowman** Another Trump appointee, Bowman was promoted to vice chair for supervision this year. She leans dovish, anticipating three 2024 cuts amid labor "fragility."

A former Kansas banking regulator, Bowman opposes the Basel III endgame’s 20% capital hike, advocating tailored rules. She’s spearheaded reforms, including revamping bank oversight and cutting Fed supervision staff by 30%.

**Kevin Warsh** Once a top Powell successor contender, Warsh served as a Fed governor during the 2008 crisis. Trump interviewed him for chair in 2017.

A vocal Fed critic, Warsh recently argued the central bank underestimates AI’s disinflationary impact. He blames inflation on excessive government spending, not wage growth, and backs treating tariffs as one-off price shocks.

**Rick Rieder** BlackRock’s fixed-income chief oversees $2.4 trillion in assets. He advocates a December cut, warning of persistent labor market deterioration despite solid corporate health.

**Wildcard: Steven Mnuchin** Trump repeatedly floated Mnuchin despite his refusals. "He loves being Treasury secretary," Trump said, joking about taking him "off the list."

Observers like ex-Trump advisor Stephen Moore still see Mnuchin as a dark horse in a "three-way race" with Warsh and Hassett. "If the president insists, he won’t say no," Moore noted.

**Trump’s Priority: Loyalty or Dovishness?** The key question, per Moore, is whether Trump’s pick will "fight inflation or defend the dollar."

Wilmer Stith of Wilmington Trust predicts a low-rate advocate, signaling a more dovish Fed in 2025. Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder warned that prioritizing loyalty risks central bank independence, calling it "the worst possible criterion."

Blinder expressed concern over markets underestimating the threat to Fed autonomy, stressing that "the loss of central bank independence isn’t priced in."