Abstract

The Kraft Heinz Company will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations and company indicators around revenue, margin, net profit, and adjusted EPS, and frames the key debates for brands, pricing, and volume into the print.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, The Kraft Heinz Company’s forecasts imply revenue of $6.38 billion, down 4.32% year over year, and an estimated adjusted EPS of $0.61, down 21.51% year over year. Estimated EBIT is $1.18 billion with a projected year-over-year decline of 14.51%. Forecast detail does not explicitly provide gross margin and net margin, but the company’s prior-quarter margin structure suggests stable gross margin support from pricing and mix, while net margin remains constrained by promotional normalization and input costs. The company’s main business remains condiments, which management aims to support with brand renovation and distribution breadth. The segment with the largest incremental growth potential is convenient meals, where innovation and pack-price architecture are positioned to re-accelerate volumes from a lower base.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, The Kraft Heinz Company posted revenue of $6.24 billion, with a gross profit margin of 31.94%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.62 billion, a net profit margin of 9.86%, and adjusted EPS of $0.61; year over year, revenue declined 2.29%, EBIT declined 16.84%, and adjusted EPS declined 18.67%. Net profit increased 107.86% quarter on quarter, aided by a more favorable mix and cost discipline, while condiments remained the largest contributor to sales at $2.79 billion and convenient meals delivered $1.02 billion as innovation and retail execution offset softer categories.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Condiments and sauces

Condiments continue to anchor The Kraft Heinz Company’s portfolio and cash generation, providing scale for marketing, in-store visibility, and international distribution. With revenue of $2.79 billion last quarter, the category’s breadth across ketchup, mayonnaise, and sauces allows for targeted promotions without diluting brand equity, while pack-price architecture can help preserve unit margins. Entering the quarter, trade-down dynamics and private-label competition are expected to pressure volumes, but elasticity has moderated versus last year and supply-chain service levels have normalized. The key watch item is the balance between list-price carryover, promotional cadence, and shelf reset execution in North America retail, which will influence mix and gross margin. A steady promotional rhythm that protects velocity should allow the company to defend share while sustaining gross margin near the low-30% handle, conditional on commodity inputs not re-inflating.

Most promising business: Convenient meals

Convenient meals, at $1.02 billion last quarter, is positioned as the incremental growth lever through innovation, improved packaging, and expanded distribution in club and value channels. The category’s sensitivity to household budgets means volumes can respond positively to smaller pack formats and targeted pricing, especially as consumers rebalance away from foodservice. Pipeline launches in microwavable and easy-prep meal solutions can lift velocity and favorably mix margins compared with legacy lines. Risks center on shelf resets and competitive intensity from peers expanding in frozen and ambient meals; however, execution on trade promotion optimization and supply continuity should support sequential improvement in volumes and a gradual year-over-year recovery from declines.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

Investors will focus on volume versus price mix, as a negative 4.32% revenue comparison embeds softer price carryover and the need for volume stabilization to meet EPS of $0.61. Gross margin resilience relative to the prior quarter’s 31.94% will be scrutinized against input-cost puts and takes, including proteins, packaging, and transportation. Operating leverage is another swing factor: if retail volumes stabilize and international performance remains steady, EBIT of $1.18 billion is attainable despite reinvestment in marketing and trade. Guidance quality and color on 2026 pricing cadence, cost-savings delivery, and capital allocation will also shape sentiment into the print.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional previews, the majority lean cautious, expecting a soft top line and pressured profit metrics as price carryover fades and promotional intensity rises. Strategists highlight the 4.32% expected revenue decline and a 21.51% drop in adjusted EPS to $0.61 as indicative of normalization after two years of pricing-led growth, with upside risks tied to better-than-expected volume elasticity and stable commodities. Analysts also emphasize watch items such as U.S. retail takeaway versus shipments, international momentum in condiments, and the timing of reinvestment for brand support. The cautious stance reflects balanced risk-reward in the near term pending clearer signs of volume reacceleration and consistent gross margin delivery.